August 2020 - MBS Commentary

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Biden Nominates Two Picks for Important Financial Positions; Uneventful Start For Bonds This Week

Published: 1/19/2021

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MBS RECAP: Some Reassurance, But We’re Not Out Of The Woods

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2020, 3:44 PM

Bonds Making Case For Friendly Technical Bounce Last Friday, we were already eyeing the technical ceiling at .79% and asking "was that it?" A the new week begins with what some might call incredibly even-keeled and relatively ample bond buying...
MBS Week Ahead: Brave New World or Business as Usual

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2020, 9:28 AM

Just like early June, we're once again forced to consider that several weeks of upward movement in yields means the lows are behind us for now. Just like early June, there are reasons to doubt that and reasons to fear it. On one hand , we could make...
MBS RECAP: Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap?

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2020, 4:45 PM

Nice Recovery Today, But Is It a Trap? If the Fed is doubling down on its inflation goals, it makes sense for bonds to be afraid--at least a little bit. But with today seeing yields hold the same ceiling as yesterday, are we already in a position to ask...
MBS Day Ahead: Is The Fed's Surprise Announcement Actually Completely Logical?

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2020, 10:06 AM

Yesterday was "interesting," to say the least. The Fed surprised markets with another unscheduled policy update and bonds traded accordingly. The surprise in question was an exceedingly well understood shift in the Fed's inflation framework...
MBS RECAP: Here's What's Up With Today's Big Reaction To The Fed

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2020, 3:42 PM

Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech? Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar today, but they surprised markets by dropping a policy change on their website. Suddenly, the journalistic coverage of today's Powell speech...
MBS Day Ahead: Is a New Inflation Framework Good Or Bad For Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2020, 8:51 AM

If you don't want to read to the end to get the answer posed in the headline, here is a spoiler: Yes, a new framework is both good and bad for bonds. It's good because the things the Fed must do in order to promote inflation are generally good...
MBS RECAP: LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock?

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2020, 4:21 PM

LLPA Impact vs Powell Speech. Time to Lock? Much has been made (by news media... not bond market participants) of Powell's Jackson Hole (virtual) speech on Thursday. After all, a rethink of the Fed's "framework" sounds like a big deal...
MBS Day Ahead: The New Showdown In The Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on August 26 2020, 9:58 AM

There's a global pandemic. On the one hand, it seems to be improving. On the other, it's responsible for a potentially permanent shift in the US labor market. On the one hand the federal government is spending trillions on stimulus, thereby putting...
MBS RECAP: New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2020, 4:21 PM

New Curveball as LLPA Just Got Delayed Until Dec 1 There are two huddle videos today. The newest and most relevant one appears below as normal. It references the old one which you can find here if you like. Why the change? Between the time of recording...
MBS Day Ahead: After Last Week's Victory, Bonds Are Already Facing a New Challenger

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by Matthew Graham on August 25 2020, 10:08 AM

Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would historically be a very narrow range that's very close to record lows. In other words, there's...
MBS RECAP: More Defensive But Not Without Hope

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2020, 3:49 PM

More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market. Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed. With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Carving Out a Low Range With No Concern Over Stocks

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by Matthew Graham on August 24 2020, 10:21 AM

Last week did a nice job of confirming a ceiling in Treasury yields after the previous week saw rates move sharply higher. At the same time the S&P hit a new record high and covid numbers continued to level off. Now at the start of the current week...
MBS RECAP: A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2020, 5:17 PM

A Week of Reassurance For The Bond Market Last week saw the first major break higher after a calm, sustained moved toward lower rates that began in mid-June. This week had a chance to confirm the drama or push back against it. Thankfully, it was the latter...
MBS Day Ahead: Now We're Getting Somewhere

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by Matthew Graham on August 21 2020, 9:19 AM

Coronavirus obviously ushered in an era of record low rates. The ongoing challenges and uncertainties are fairly well understood. They have a wide spectrum of possible outcomes. As far as we can see at the moment, the baseline outcome involves permanent...
MBS RECAP: MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent

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by Matthew Graham on August 20 2020, 4:49 PM

MBS Underperforming Treasuries, But Broader Trends Are Decent The mortgage market continues coping with the combination of last week's LLPA news and a generally high level of supply. One hurts bond prices relative to Treasuries. The other hurts mortgage...

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Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week rally suggested a good amount of short...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.85%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.37%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.31%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-17 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-15 (-0-00)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-07 (-0-10)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 1.06%
|
Refinance Index 1.40%
|
Purchase Index 1.81%

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