May 2019 - MBS Commentary

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Plummeting Sales in West Skew National Totals; Prices Moderating; Recalcitrant Rates; Downtrend or Consolidation?

Published: 6/25/2019

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MBS Day Ahead: Aggressively Friendly Range Breakout

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by Matthew Graham on May 31 2019, 8:34 AM

In the day just past, bonds traded an "outside day" (high and low yields of the day fell OUTSIDE the highs and lows from the previous day). This signals both indecision and volatility. In other words, bonds weren't sure which way to go,...
MBS RECAP: Big Snowball Rally For Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on May 31 2019, 4:56 PM

After at least 2 days of (or more) of relatively disconnected markets (i.e. trading levels weren't reliably following any single market mover), today is starkly different. There's one single elephant in Friday's room, or perhaps it's a...
MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement vs TED Announcement

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by Matthew Graham on May 01 2019, 9:04 AM

Although the 10am ISM Manufacturing Report can definitely have an impact on bonds today, The 2pm FED Announcement and 2:30pm press conference is the biggest to-do. There's effectively no chance that the Fed will make any change to its target interest...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on May 01 2019, 2:02 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market remains strong but and that growth of economic activity has rose slowed at from a its solid rate in the fourth quarter . Payroll Job employment...
MBS RECAP: Fed's Offsetting Penalties Leave Bonds Little-Changed

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by Matthew Graham on May 01 2019, 5:02 PM

The overnight session was very quiet for bonds with most major markets closed for various holidays. The first meaningful movement followed the ISM Manufacturing report's major miss (52.8 vs 55.0). This was the lowest since October 2016 and several...
MBS Day Ahead: There's Something About 2.50%

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2019, 10:31 AM

2.50% has been more than just a reasonably round number marking the midpoint between 2.0% and 3.0% as far as 10yr Treasury yields are concerned. Actually, I take that back. That's exactly what it is, and that's exactly why it's been important...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Hit Top of Recent Range Ahead of Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on May 02 2019, 5:38 PM

Treasuries weakened today as traders continued to price out a friendly Fed. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case after yesterday's Fed Announcement. That, in and of itself, wasn't too threatening to bonds. In fact, bot stocks and...
MBS Day Ahead: NFP and ISM Round Out Big Week of Data

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2019, 8:22 AM

In the day just past, bonds sold off due to what appears to be market dissatisfaction with a hawkish message from the Fed. This largely came courtesy of Powell's press conference on Wednesday, but cues may also have been gleaned by the fact that one...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Scratch Out Modest Gains as Traders Book Profits

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by Matthew Graham on May 03 2019, 5:28 PM

Bond traders can book profits on bond purchases by selling, or on bond sales by buying. Today was characterized by the latter. Logically, traders bet on higher rates on Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday morning as Powell delivered a far less friendly...
MBS Week Ahead: Sparse Data, Treasury Auctions, and Trade Tensions

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2019, 8:59 AM

The week begins with bonds trading in much stronger territory thanks to a surprise US/China trade announcement from Trump over the weekend. This changes the tone for bonds heading into the week. Whereas it looked like yields may have been running into...
MBS RECAP: Token Rally on Trade Fears

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by Matthew Graham on May 06 2019, 5:13 PM

Today represented a classic example of the old market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news." It also offered two different takes on that strategy from the stock and bond markets. Ultimately, there was a twist by the end of the day. First off...
MBS Day Ahead: Calendar Still Sparse as Trade Remains in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2019, 8:53 AM

In the day just past, a weekend Trump tweet announcing increased tariffs on China sent bond yields and stock prices much lower. Both bounced back throughout the the day, but stocks bounced much more than bonds. Right at the close, more trade-related headlines...
MBS RECAP: Another Day With Trade War in Focus

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by Matthew Graham on May 07 2019, 6:15 PM

For the second straight day, US/China trade relation uncertainty dominated financial markets. Volume was up across the board with Treasury yields and stock prices (S&P futures, intraday) dropping to the lowest levels in more than a month . Stocks...
MBS Day Ahead: Trade Wars, 10yr Auction, and Sticky MBS Prices

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by Matthew Graham on May 08 2019, 9:07 AM

In the day just passed, bonds continued to rally as more details about recent trade war drama unfolded. Actually, those details unfolded late Monday and were simply traded yesterday morning. Notably absent from the rally was the MBS market (for the most...
MBS RECAP: One-Two Punch From Trade War Bounce and Treasury Auction

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by Matthew Graham on May 08 2019, 5:24 PM

First thing in the morning, it looked like we had a chance to see another trade-war-driven bond rally. A Reuters story that detailed the US/China communication breakdown hit the market around 4:30am, causing both stocks and bond yields to move quickly...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.79%
|
15 Yr FRM 3.63%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.86%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 104-13 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 105-21 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 106-19 (0-05)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -3.52%
|
Refinance Index -3.46%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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