October 2017 - MBS Commentary

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Shutdown Underwriting Shift; Existing Sales Resume Slide; Conservatorship Nearing an End?

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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Back on The Ropes

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by Matthew Graham on October 20 2017, 9:38 AM

It's a crappy day. Sorry to use such an esoteric analytical term, but it's the most accurate way to describe the outlook. So what changed? Long story short, we'd been in a narrow, consolidative range since late September. That range had a...
MBS RECAP: Catalonia (or China!) Helped Early; Powell Saved The Day

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2017, 5:11 PM

It was a pretty interesting session for how narrow the range continues to be in bond markets--interesting both for bonds themselves and for the analysts scrambling to make sense of the movement. Apart from last Friday's CPI data, there hasn't...
MBS Day Ahead: 2 Simple Lines Means Bonds Stay In The Game

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by Matthew Graham on October 19 2017, 8:34 AM

The past 3 days were disconcerting for bond markets--especially yesterday, which saw yields move higher at their quickest pace in two weeks. This threatened to reverse the positive trend that looked like it was confirmed by last Friday's CPI-driven...
MBS RECAP: Stronger Selling and Lighter Volume Raise Doubts

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2017, 4:58 PM

Everything seemed so simple last Friday when bonds were surging past technical barriers in strong volume--ostensibly ringing the dinner bell for more bond buying. The fact that everything seemed so simple was also the biggest risk. Perhaps it was "too...
MBS Day Ahead: Time For That Mid-October Craziness in Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on October 18 2017, 9:43 AM

Ah mid-October... All too often in the 2009-2014 time frame, we'd seen abrupt reversals of trends at this time of month. We haven't really been on the lookout for that old behavior because 2014 seemed to mark a shift in that trend. 2014 itself...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Scramble Back to Unchanged, Leaving Outlook Cloudy

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2017, 4:52 PM

Treasuries and MBS have spent the past 2 days trading well inside the range set by last Friday's volatility (big rally following CPI data). Unfortunately, the central tendency during those 2 days has been toward moderately weaker levels. This casts...
MBS Day Ahead: Quickly Becoming a Battle to Remain in a Friendly Trend

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by Matthew Graham on October 17 2017, 9:18 AM

As we discussed last week, the positive technical signals don't get much clearer than they did after Friday's CPI data (weak inflation helped bonds break a floor that had been stubbornly holding for several weeks. At the time, the biggest risk...
MBS RECAP: Political Headlines Cause Volatility in a Narrow Range

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2017, 5:01 PM

If the only things you could observe about today's bond trading were volumes and "buy vs sell," there were a few moments where things got fairly interesting --especially after 2pm. That's when the biggest volume and the biggest movement...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Can Absorb Some Weakness Without Derailing The Trend

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by Matthew Graham on October 16 2017, 9:27 AM

It looks like it will be touch and go for bonds as the week begins. If yields or technicals touch certain overhead ceilings, you should go lock your loans. If you're up to speed on Friday's technical victory, you're equipped to understand...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Big After Weak Inflation Report

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by Matthew Graham on October 13 2017, 4:30 PM

There was a time--in fact, there was a stretch of several years--when inflation-related reports just didn't matter . I would have been the first to tell you that (and often was), even as those with a more conventional approach to market analysis would...
MBS Day Ahead: All Rise! The Judge is In

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by Matthew Graham on October 13 2017, 8:18 AM

My apologies to baseball fans, both of you. The "judge" in today's case is this morning's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Bonds have been deliberating all month about whether to make an attempt to break above 2.40% or bounce back into...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Starting to Gather Momentum Again

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2017, 8:04 PM

Bond markets are matching their best 3-day performance in over a month with today's stronger closing levels. Unlike the previous examples, the current 3 days have resulted in the biggest move lower in yields from the previous day's highs. Pretty...
MBS Day Ahead: Still Waiting For The Trading Week to Start (Tomorrow)

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by Matthew Graham on October 12 2017, 9:04 AM

CPI, CPI, CPI... The "Consumer Price Index" is the one thing on this week's economic calendar that stood out as a top tier potential market mover. After a few revisions, the lowest-in-years reading of 1.6% for "Core CPI" became...
MBS RECAP: Well? Get On With It!

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2017, 5:34 PM

"Well? Get on with it!" That about sums up what the average bond market watcher was thinking at the end of September--and possibly again after today's trading session. At the end of September, a run toward higher yields resumed abruptly...
MBS Day Ahead: Not Much to be Learned From Fed Minutes

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by Matthew Graham on October 11 2017, 8:50 AM

On both MBS Live and Mortgage News Daily, there's a video in the news stream titled "Key things to watch in the Fed minutes." The commentator rather emphatically says there are 3 important things: " inflation, inflation, and inflation...

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