February 2013 - MBS Commentary

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Senator Demands Change on Short Sale Credit Score Effects; Rates Snap Back To Recent Highs; Market Volatility Ahead of the Fed

Published: 5/17/2013

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MBS RECAP: Mortgages Win Flatness Contest Vs Treasuries and Stocks

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February 28 2013, 4:05 PM

There's not necessarily an increase in negative reprice risk at the moment, but we wanted to let you know that Treasuries and Equities have taken off a bit, with respect to the sideways grinds that dominated mid-morning trading. This isn't a huge...
MBS MID-DAY: Sideways, Mostly Positive Morning, Outperforming Treasuries

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February 28 2013, 11:09 AM

- PMI 56.8 vs 54.3 Consensus, 55.6 previously - New Orders 60.2 vs 58.2 previously - employment 55.7 vs 58.0 previously The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer rose for a second month, up 1.2 points to 56.8, its highest...
The Day Ahead: Economic Data Gets More Serious; Memories of Greece

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by Matthew Graham on February 28 2013, 6:37 AM

It's a bit of a predicament that bond markets find themselves in at the moment, having looked very serious about breaking the recent trend higher in rates only to potentially already be finding resistance. In simpler terms, rates have been moving up,...
MBS RECAP: Equities Markets Ambush Unsuspecting Bonds

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February 27 2013, 4:09 PM

Big technical breaks in EUR/USD as well as Treasuries and equities have precipitated a similarly big technical break of the supportive zone that had been holding around 103-15 to 103-16 in Fannie 3.0s for most of the past two days. Fannie 3.0s are now...
MBS MID-DAY: Morning Strength Fades Toward Unchanged Levels

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February 27 2013, 11:09 AM

Only for those lenders out with rate sheets earlier in the morning, reprice risk is possibly already increasing as Fannie 3.0 MBS have fallen from 103-22 around the first rate sheet print times to 103-17 currently. The lenders who price that early don...
The Day Ahead: Lots of Data Plus Bernanke, but Italian Fog is Thick

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by Matthew Graham on February 27 2013, 7:37 AM

On most other days, the lineup of data and events on Wednesday (yesterday too, for that matter) presents some serious market moving considerations. Yet the fog of uncertainty created by the Italian election fallout hangs thick in the air and is likely...
MBS RECAP: Mostly Holding Monday's Impressive Gains

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February 26 2013, 4:09 PM

Fannie 3.0s are down 4 ticks on the day at 103-15 as Treasuries have followed equities higher into the afternoon. 10yr yields broke above a short term pivot at 1.874 and are currently finding support at 1.886 as S&P's hit their highs at 1498....
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains As Bernanke Speaks, Italy Remains Uncertain

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February 26 2013, 11:09 AM

With unemployment well above normal levels and inflation subdued, progress toward the Federal Reserve's mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Under normal circumstances,...
The Day Ahead: Italy Reactions, Bernanke, Data, and Auctions

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2013, 7:37 AM

Before yesterday morning's Italian election results rocked markets, we noted that the week promised to be "significantly more active in terms of data and events ." With only one day down, it's safe to say "promise kept." This was thanks exclusively to...
MBS RECAP: Italian Elections Make For Bond Market Face-Melter

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February 25 2013, 4:09 PM

Italian election eventualities couldn't be much friendlier to US bond markets than they have been, with each updated poll showing more and more uncertainty. Conflict and/or lack of ability to make political progress in Italy (not to mention the possibility...
MBS MID-DAY: What's Bad For Mario And Luigi Is Good For MBS

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February 25 2013, 11:09 AM

A full-scale risk reversal is underway as Italian election polls stream in, showing center-right candidate Berlusconi with a marginal lead. This runs counter to previous expectations and even to early polling figures suggesting center-left Bersani would...
The Week Ahead: Econ Data, Bernanke, Auctions and Elections

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2013, 7:37 AM

In stark contrast to the 4 days that followed Presidents' Day, the week ahead promises to be significantly more active in terms of data and events . Last week's FOMC Minutes had a shot to stimulate some more sincere market movement, but failed to do so...
MBS RECAP: Quiet Session, Still Eyeing Bernanke And Italian Elections

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February 22 2013, 4:09 PM

We've seen a few positive reprices come across as Fannie 3.0s finally get with the program in terms of catching up to yesterday's better levels at 103-00. Treasuries were already back at theirs (1.96) and may already be experiencing some technical...
MBS MID-DAY:Steady Improvements After LTRO Repayment News, Block Trades

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February 22 2013, 11:14 AM

The European hours delivered in terms of providing plenty for overnight Treasuries to consider, even if that's more about following analogous European metrics like German Bunds. The yields of both moved higher at the start of the European session...
The Day Ahead: All About Europe and Next Week

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by Matthew Graham on February 22 2013, 7:40 AM

Thursday's robust batch of economic data brings the calendar of domestic reports to a close for the week. This leaves Friday at the whim of overnight events in Europe where there is a similarly robust batch of economic data including German GDP and IFO...

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