January 2013 - MBS Commentary

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Senator Demands Change on Short Sale Credit Score Effects; Rates Snap Back To Recent Highs; Market Volatility Ahead of the Fed

Published: 5/17/2013

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MBS RECAP: Pre-NFP Bond Markets And Meteorological Cliches

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January 31 2013, 4:07 PM

The day so far has been woefully uneventful in terms of trading levels. In general, MBS have been defensive about benchmark rates moving north of 2% in terms of the 10yr yield. As 2% shows some resolve to be a supportive ceiling this afternoon, MBS are...
MBS MID-DAY: Back To The Middle Of The Day's Range

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January 31 2013, 11:07 AM

Though there are precious few lenders who release rates early enough to be affected, any rate sheets that were out before 9:43 are already at risk of negative reprices. Bond markets have been sliding into weaker territory since then with 10's now...
The Day Ahead: Little More than an Opening Act for Friday's NFP

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2013, 7:44 AM

Sometimes opening acts are surprisingly entertaining, or perhaps even moving. But more often than not, the headliner is what you came to see and the opener is less than memorable. Such is the case with Thursday and Friday. On any other week, today's line...
The Day Ahead: Plenty of Data, But NFP Dominates

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2013, 7:32 AM

By the time we reach the Friday of an NFP week, there's little else left to say or do besides wait for 8:30am. That's made doubly true this week due to the fact that the other potential big-ticket events did surprisingly little to move markets. The most...
MBS RECAP: Paradoxical GDP Vetted By Internals, FOMC Innocuous, Asleep Till NFP

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January 30 2013, 4:07 PM

While a few lenders have already repriced positively, most have stayed sidelined on what is STILL an extremely muted response to the FOMC Statement. As for the statement itself, it was more economically bullish in parts, removing the indecision as to...
Differences Between Current And Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2013, 2:20 PM

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and employment have other transitory factors....
MBS MID-DAY: Weaker Despite GDP Miss, Settling In For FOMC

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January 30 2013, 2:07 PM

Bond markets began the overnight session in moderately weaker territory as Asia traded generally "risk-on" (higher stocks, weaker yen, higher bond yields). Strong data in the UK and sell-biased tradeflows from central banks contributed to an...
MBS RECAP: Tradeflow, Technicals Win Out Despite Weaker Data

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January 29 2013, 4:07 PM

The "risk-on" snowballs are sliding, though not any more aggressively than they already were. We said we'd update you if the ground-holding changed, and it's changing. Stocks have ticked a bit higher, as have Treasury yields ( up to...
MBS MID-DAY: Disconcerting Resistance After Morning Gains

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2013, 11:07 AM

Bond markets began the overnight session with a "risk-on" move during Asian hours as both Treasury yields and equities futures moved back towards Monday morning levels. 10's never went over 1.99 though, and began easing gently lower into...
The Day Ahead: Shifting Some Focus from Tradeflows to Events

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2013, 7:44 AM

Yesterday we noted that it was " almost an insult " to look out on the day ahead in terms of the events on the calendar when tradeflows and technicals had so clearly dominated the recent activity. The trading that followed would drive that point home...
The Day Ahead: Consumer Confidence, 5yr Auction, and Nail-Biting

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2013, 7:07 AM

It's almost an insult to trading levels, volume, and volatility to make much mention of the actual nuts and bolts of the day ahead. Monday was dominated by tradeflows and technicals. Accounts were more concerned about where various bond market securities...
MBS RECAP: Steady Climb Back From AM Weakness

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January 28 2013, 4:07 PM

Thinner trading volumes in the afternoon have given bond markets some room to run after hours. This is much more evident in MBS, which have seen 3.0s make it back above the morning's highs, currently down only 1 tick from Friday's close at 103...
MBS MID-DAY: Languishing In Weaker Territory, Outlook Uncertain

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January 28 2013, 11:07 AM

While it doesn't necessarily feel safe to hope for any sort of inspiring rally this morning, bond markets have at least held their ground for now. After weakening at a quick pace for the duration of Friday's session, Monday's overnight trading...
The Week Ahead: About as Busy and as Serious as Possible

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2013, 7:49 AM

For bond markets, and even markets in general, things don't get much busier than they will be this week in terms of economic data, potential market movers, and technical boundary-testing. Domestically, much has been made of recently more bullish economic...
MBS RECAP: Bond Markets Tag-Teamed By ECB, FOMC, and NFP

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January 25 2013, 4:07 PM

There continues to be no new news driving rates markets this afternoon. Rather we're simply seeing snowball selling run its course. 10yr yields are at new highs for the day near 1.95 and MBS briefly touched new lows at 103-12 in Fannie 3.0s. Negative...

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