November 2012 - MBS Commentary

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MBS RECAP: Mostly Positive Territory In A Narrow Range

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November 30 2012, 4:05 PM

November has been a fairly rough month for MBS in terms of their relative performance to the rest of the bond market. This phenomenon is largely owing to the vast outperformance seen following the QE3 announcement. But today has seen a small correction...
MBS MID-DAY: Some Weakness Following Fed Twist Buying

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November 30 2012, 11:09 AM

- PMI 50.4 vs 50.5 consensus, 49.9 previous - New Orders 45.3 vs 50.6 previous - Prices Paid 70.1 vs 50.6 previous, highest since March - New orders lowest since June 2009 - Employment Index 55.2 vs 50.3 previous The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported...
The Day Ahead: Month-End, Moderate Data, Germany Votes on Greece

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2012, 7:19 AM

Friday arrives (does it feel sooner than recent Friday's?) with little fanfare, at least not the kind that's on the schedule ahead of time. There's a moderately small batch of European economic data in the overnight session as well vote on the Greek bailout...
MBS RECAP: Mortgage Struggle Back To Yesterday's Weakest Levels

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November 29 2012, 4:05 PM

Although the 7yr Treasury auction came in a slightly higher than expected yield, bond markets had rallied into the 1pm auction deadline sufficiently to leave the 0.003% miss in a less unfavorable light. Couple that with the strong internals such as a...
MBS MID-DAY: Boehner Comments Shake Things Up On Otherwise Slow Morning

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2012, 11:54 AM

- Index +5.2 pct vs +0.8 pct consensus - From 99.6 in Sept to 104.8 in Oct, highest in more than 5 years - Pending home sales rose strongly in October with mixed regional results, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales...
The Day Ahead: Remorse for Excessive Fiscal Cliff, and Some Other Stuff To

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by Matthew Graham on November 29 2012, 7:19 AM

Have you ever procrastinated with a deadline? Did you find a legitimate justification for making the delay, and if so did it make the " crunch-time " just before the deadline any less painful/stressful/crazy than if you'd simply said "I don't wanna!"...
MBS RECAP: Gains Extended In The AM, Reversed In The Afternoon

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November 28 2012, 4:08 PM

Late day illiquidity is pushing production MBS prices lower following the 3pm Treasury close and Treasuries themselves are leaking higher in yield as the after hours session kicks in. Negative reprices have already been a sort of constant companion since...
MBS MID-DAY: In Positive Territory, But Weaker After Fiscal Cliff Headlines

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November 28 2012, 11:08 AM

Bond markets and especially equities markets continue to show an increasing tendency to whip around on any and all headlines pertaining to the Fiscal Cliff. In rapid succession this morning, we've had Erskin Bowles, John Boehner, and Orrin Hatch out...
The Day Ahead: Greece Out, Fiscal Cliff In, 5yr Auction

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by Matthew Graham on November 28 2012, 7:09 AM

With Tuesday's session in the books, it's now plain to see just how aggressively markets had priced in some sort of resolution to the most recent round of Greek bailout bargaining. The fact that it was priced in to a large extent isn't so much of a surprise...
MBS RECAP: Steady Improvements Thanks To Unsteadiness Elsewhere

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November 27 2012, 4:08 PM

MBS have been grinding higher in a tight range all morning with several lenders now having repriced positively. The friendly price action in Fannie 3.0s looks like it should have motivated even more reprice activity, but we'd note that many lenders...
MBS MID-DAY: Steady At Stronger Levels Despite Data, Greek Deal

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November 27 2012, 11:08 AM

- Confidence 73.7 vs 73.0 Consensus - Last month revised from 72.2 to 73.1 - 'Present Situation' FELL to 56.6 from 56.7 - Biggest gains in 'Expectations,' up to 85.1 vs upwardly revised 84.0 in October (previously 82.9) The Conference...
The Day Ahead: Econ Data, Treasury Auction, And European Can-Kicking

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by Matthew Graham on November 27 2012, 7:40 AM

Late on Monday, Eurozone Finance Ministers, along with the IMF, reached a deal on Greece's long-term debt with the supposed outcome being the €44 bln payout of the country's next bailout tranche. Yesterday, we noted that there were two competing...
MBS RECAP: Back To Business And Back To Gains For Bond Markets

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November 26 2012, 4:08 PM

Following the 11:00am conclusion of the Fed's scheduled "twist" buying in the 25-30yr maturity range, bond markets looked to have put in their best levels of the day, and indeed this has been the case so far. 10yr yields never made it lower...
MBS MID-DAY: Best Levels Of The Day After Fed Buyback; Still Waiting On Greece

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November 26 2012, 11:08 AM

Remember the "Choose Your Own Adventure" books? Today's moderate bond market gains are suggesting a similar directive--something to the tune of: "choose your own market-mover." Bond markets are in noticeably better territory with...
The Week Ahead: Euro-Drama, Month-End, Auctions and a Full Week of Data

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by Matthew Graham on November 26 2012, 7:15 AM

After a somnambulant holiday-shortened week of trading, markets waste no time in getting back to business. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the "landscape of informative events for markets" wastes no time in coming back to life after a fairly...

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