April 2012 - MBS Commentary

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The Day Ahead: National Manufacturing Set To Disappoint?

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by Matthew Graham on April 30 2012, 11:59 PM

Other than the sheer lack of volume/participation, Monday's most notable feature turned out to be Chicago's ISM numbers. The drop from 62.2 last month to 56.2 is a sizable chunk and you'll see it in the chart below, yet markets didn't really respond,...
MBS RECAP: Late Day Weakness Preserves The Range

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April 30 2012, 4:07 PM

A set of special questions asked survey respondents about residential real estate lending policies at their institutions. Banks were asked to compare their willingness to originate a GSE-eligible 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan intended for home purchase...
MBS MID-DAY: Slow Start, But Positive

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April 30 2012, 11:06 AM

National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2012 were 8.8 percent for rental housing and 2.2 percent for homeowner housing, the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau announced today. The rental vacancy rate of 8.8 percent was 0.9 percentage points lower...
The Week Ahead: Manufacturing Data and Employment Situation

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2012, 11:47 PM

Bond markets traded in jaw-droppingly narrow ranges last week given the presence of the FOMC events (announcement, forecasts, press conference) and Q1 GDP. Markets showed a willingness to push the envelope only on a few occasions and only in the overnight...
MBS RECAP: Heading Out Near The Highs of a Very Flat Week

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April 27 2012, 4:09 PM

If bond markets do something other than drift sideways in light volume from here on out, it would probably be pure coincidence. Current trading reiterates that 'decisions' will be put off as long as possible. Specifically, it would be nice to...
MBS MID-DAY: Firm Resistance To Further Gains

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April 27 2012, 11:09 AM

"Rally and Fade..." That has been the default response in bond markets to the two most recent pieces of market moving data. Beginning in the overnight session, 10yr yields rallied into the 1.8's on two notch S&P downgrade of Spain only...
The Day Ahead: Spain Downgrade Kicks Off Overnight Rally

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by Matthew Graham on April 27 2012, 1:01 AM

Thursday turned out to be ridiculously narrow given that it followed FOMC Day. Then again, if you tend to agree with the assessment that Bernanke and The Fed basically put the onus for QE guidance on economic data (we talked a bit more about that in yesterday...
MBS RECAP: Heading Out Sideways Near Opening Levels

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April 26 2012, 4:09 PM

MBS and Treasuries are at or below their lowest prices of the day after an unexpected jolt of volume and positivity hit stock markets. S&P futures have seen their two biggest volume surges of the day at 1:19pm and 1:40pm respectively. We don't...
MBS MID-DAY: Holding Gains in Narrow Range

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April 26 2012, 11:09 AM

Pending home sales increased in March and are well above a year ago, another signal the housing market is recovering, according to the National Association of RealtorsÒ. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings...
The Day Ahead: Moderate Data Calendar Before Friday's GDP

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by Matthew Graham on April 26 2012, 7:40 AM

Although it's a net positive to see MBS and Treasuries hold their ground at recent levels following yesterday's FOMC events, it does complicate things as far as gleaning market sentiment. We were sort of counting on the reaction to take us somewhere other...
MBS RECAP: Major Volatility A No-Show On FOMC Day

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April 25 2012, 4:08 PM

There's an incredibly promising pivot point in play for 10yr yields at the moment. As trading evolves around this pivot point, so too should the general positive/negative sentiment regarding MBS. The level in question is around 2.015 and can be seen...
Differences Between Current and Previous FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on April 25 2012, 12:41 PM

subtractions in red and struck-through, additions in green and underlined... Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved...
MBS MID-DAY: Flattening Out Ahead of Auction, FOMC

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April 25 2012, 11:08 AM

At first blush, this might seem like somewhat of a paradoxical reaction. We have much weaker-than-expected economic data and bond markets are not only "not improving," but one might even say they're struggling a bit this morning. First of...
The Day Ahead: FOMC Announcement, Forecasts, and Press Conference

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by Matthew Graham on April 25 2012, 12:31 AM

At last, FOMC Day arrives. .. We've been waiting for this one--and less than patiently... Two and a half weeks ago, we went into the NFP weekend with 10yr yields surging almost 20bps lower and were greeted not with any sort of volatile opposition to that...
MBS RECAP: Weaker Today; Still Flat in The Big Picture

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April 24 2012, 4:08 PM

Fannie 3.5's just hit another new low at 103-17. 10yr yields spiking over 1.97. Still inclined to NOT view this as a fundamental commentary on broader bond markets--more incidental. That said, new lows for MBS = new risks. Things seem to be stabilizing...

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