September 2010 - MBS Commentary

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Rates Recover as Stock Lever Spurs Bargain Buying. Reprices Due

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by Adam Quinones on September 30 2010, 12:08 PM

Stop the presses! After touching 4.5 month highs following the release of Chicago PMI data at 9:45, profit taking has led stocks back into the red. S&Ps are currently -8.25 at 1132.75. This is a 20 point turn around. As liquidity dried up and the floor...
MBS Break Multiple Support Levels After Chicago PMI. Bid Wanted

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by Adam Quinones on September 30 2010, 9:46 AM

Chicago PMI printed at 9:45. It was much much better than expected, led by gains in the new orders index. The prices paid index on the other hand fell 2.2 points and the employment index fell 2.1 points. Both of these metrics are on the Fed's "WE NEED...
DATA FLASH: Fewer Jobless Claims. Better Q2 GDP. Stocks Rally. Bonds Do Not

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by Adam Quinones on September 30 2010, 8:34 AM

830AM data has been released. Both Jobless Claims and final Q2 GDP beat consensus estimates (barely). Stock futures better, benchmark bond yields up, MBS lose positive price progress. ...
The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Final Q2 GDP, Bernanke, Chicago PMI

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by Patrick McGee on September 30 2010, 8:23 AM

On this final day of September and final day of the 3rd quarter, after a busy overnight session in which Ireland’s finance minister declared his country had hit “rock bottom”, interest rates are rallying off of yesterday's yield highs and stock futures...
MBS Close at Lows After Bid Goes Missing. Profits Booked in TSYs

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2010, 5:06 PM

The November FNCL 4.0 ended the day -0-07 at 102-14. The intraday low was 102-13. The high was 102-24. I've got the production coupon marked at 3.637% (+2.9bps). Current coupon MBS yield spreads closed UNCH vs. 5pm indications yesterday. Originator hedging...
Debt Investors Ignore Expensive Price Tags. Appetite for Risk Aversion Remains Healthy

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2010, 1:10 PM

We had three Treasury auctions this week. All three issues were offered at record low yields, yet demand remained strong. Makes you feel like mortgage rates will be low for an "extended period" doesn't it?...
Production MBS Prices at Session Lows. Rate Sheets Already 10bps Worse.

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2010, 11:35 AM

With rebate already a few bps weaker on the open, reprices for the worse don't appear to be an issue at the moment. However if 2.50% support is broken in 10s and FNCL 4.0s test the next layer of support at 102-10, then reprices for the worse would become...
The Day Ahead: Fed Speakers and 7-Year Treasury Note Auction

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by Patrick McGee on September 29 2010, 7:45 AM

Benchmark interest rates are modestly higher and equity futures are mixed as investors prepare for a dataless U.S. trading session, this puts the focus on a slew of Federal Reserve speakers, a Treasury auction, and overseas events. ...
Phantom MBS Coupon Makes Appearance. Mortgage Rates Slow to React

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2010, 5:15 PM

It happened yesterday but I didn't make a big deal about it because I wanted to see how lenders would play it out today. Then it happened again today. And I am thinking it will be a good thing for mortgage rates....
5-Year TSY Notes Auctioned at Record Low Yield. Investor Demand Still Healthy

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2010, 1:28 PM

Plain and Simple: In the first two auctions of the week we've seen extremely high demand at record low yields. This tells you that the bid for risk averse assets remains strong regardless of lower returns....
Consumer Confidence at 7-Month Low. Rebate Due from Lenders

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2010, 10:00 AM

Loan pricing was 10.2 bps better on average yesterday but rate sheet influential MBS prices were up about 0.375bps. Most lenders didn't reprice for the better yesterday afternoon, this means you are owed bps from yesterday plus the price appreciations...
DATA FLASH: Case-Shiller Home Price Index +0.6% in July. +3.2% Year Over Year

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2010, 9:04 AM

JULY 20-METRO AREA HOME PRICES UNADJUSTED +0.6 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.4) VS +1.0 PCT IN JUNE - S&P/CASE-SHILLER. 20-METRO AREA HOME PRICES +3.2 PCT (CONSENSUS +3.1 PCT) FROM YEAR AGO -- CASE-SHILLER...
The Day Ahead: Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence, 5-Year Note Auction

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by Patrick McGee on September 28 2010, 8:40 AM

Interest rates are flat and global equities are mixed ahead of home price data,a key consumer confidence survey, and a $35 billion 5-year Treasury note auction. S&P 500 futures are 2.25 points higher at 1,140.00 and Dow futures are 33 points up at 10...
2-Year Note Auction: Record Low Yields Met with Strong Demand. Reprices Possible

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by Adam Quinones on September 27 2010, 1:12 PM

This was a record low "high yield" for a 2-year note auction, yet investors were still more than willing to buy. Although the street took home the majority of the issue, leaving inventory in the wrong hands, non-dealer bidding improved and auction demand...
Modest Buying Benefits MBS in Thin Market. Loan Pricing Competition to Pick Up?

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by Adam Quinones on September 27 2010, 12:07 PM

Mortgage-backeds are off to a slow start to the week. Not much activity to report. Price levels are nonetheless moving higher thanks to a turn around in benchmark Treasuries, tighter swap spreads and modest buying in MBS space. ...

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