August 2010 - MBS Commentary

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Lock Desks Buy Back Hedges. Potential Shift in Production Coupon Looms

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2010, 5:44 PM

Yesterday we heard banks were buying back MBS hedges. This means lock desks were actively reducing their pipeline coverage (forward hedges) to account for an expected increase in fallout. This was a hint of strong pricing to come....and it did! ...
Production MBS Coupon Hits New High. Loan Pricing Noticeably Better as 3.5s Trade Forward

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2010, 12:26 PM

Have you seen loan pricing today? When we took down indications and updated our model with BE offers from the majors, our first reaction was: THERE IS AN ERROR SOMEWHERE! On average, loan pricing is 30.2 basis points better vs. yesterday. Just to confirm...
The Day Ahead: Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2010, 7:57 AM

After experiencing a sizable sell off on Friday, the bond market spent the day yesterday in recovery mode. Prices of U.S. Treasuries rallied across the curve with the long end leading the way. The 10 year TSY note went out +1-00 at 100-26 yielding 2.53...
Mixed Rate Outlook Provides Perspective: Risk Greatly Outweighs Reward

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by Adam Quinones on August 30 2010, 3:56 PM

My point: after reprices for the better, loan pricing is 13.3bps better than it was last Monday (on average). In fact, loan pricing is just about as aggressive as it's ever been! If you are a perfect borrower, 4.25% is readily available. Heck, even if...
MBS Prices Recover from Friday Downtrade. Reprices for Better Possible

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by Adam Quinones on August 30 2010, 12:02 PM

Rate sheet influential MBS coupons have rallied more than 8 ticks from where they opened at the session lows. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is currently +0-13 at 102-24. Production MBS coupon yield spreads are wider as benchmarks rally (normal behavior...
The Week Ahead: Busy Calendar Before Employment Situation Report

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by Adam Quinones on August 30 2010, 7:38 AM

The first Friday of a new month is upon us, that means the official Employment Situation Report is just ahead. Because this data provides an in-depth look at the health of the driving force behind consumer spending, the labor market, investing sentiment...
Bond Market Hits Reset Button, Poor Econ Data Forecasting, Loan Pricing Review

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2010, 4:22 PM

A brief market wrap and a few observations heading into the weekend......
ALERT: Bond Market Repricing for the Worse as Stocks Rally

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2010, 11:16 AM

Stocks initially sold to the lows of the week after Bernanke's speech flashed across wires but buyers were quick to take advantage of cheap prices. S&Ps have turned around and are now testing yesterday's session highs. The bond market is repricing...
Bernanke: Recovery Slower Than Expected. Fed Prepared to Provide Additional Stimulus if Necessary

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2010, 10:04 AM

FED PREPARED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL STIMULUS IF NECESSARY, ESPECIALLY IF OUTLOOK WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY...
The Day Ahead: Revised Q2 GDP, Fed Chairman Speaks, Consumer Sentiment

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2010, 7:24 AM

The Commerce Department is due to release its second estimate of GDP at 8:30 a.m. The GDP data follows a series of disappointing reports on the housing sales this week and will add pressure on the Obama administration, which already is worried about...
7-Year Note Auction Met with Healthy Demand. Indirects Bidders Chase Higher Returns

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by Adam Quinones on August 26 2010, 1:13 PM

This was the best auction of the week. Indirect bidders were the primary source of auction demand. Indicating overseas real money buyers are still chasing returns in the long end of the yield curve. This has been a consistent theme since the Fed announced...
Markets Await Directional Guidance from Fed Chairman

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by Adam Quinones on August 26 2010, 10:48 AM

If you've been reading along over the past week you know I've been calling for the recent interest rate rally to reverse course. Poor housing data prevented that retracement from occurring in the first half of the week, but yesterday the rally...
The Day Ahead: Jobless Claims, Regional Manufacturing Data, Treasury Supply

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by Adam Quinones on August 26 2010, 8:06 AM

Rate sheet influential MBS coupons are following benchmark Treasury prices higher ahead of Weekly Jobless Claims data at 830am. The October delivery FNCL 4.0 is +0-05 at 102-23 and the October FNCL 4.5 is +0-05 at 104-09. Production coupon yield spreads...
Indirect Bidders Support 5-Year Note Auction. MBS Off Price Highs. Reprices Possible

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by Adam Quinones on August 25 2010, 2:01 PM

FNCL 4.0s just fell from new record high prices, led by profit taking in the long end of the yield curve and localized weakness in the belly. With "rate sheet influential" MBS prices falling from session highs, reprices for the worse are possible...
The Day Ahead: Durable Goods, New Home Sales, Treasury Supply

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by Adam Quinones on August 25 2010, 7:53 AM

Good Morning. Benchmark interest rates held onto yesterday's improvements in the overnight trading session as global equity markets extended their losing streak. Red is smeared across the stock market scoreboard again......

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