July 2010 - MBS Commentary

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MBS Lower and Wider. Reprices Reported. Buyers Lurking

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by Adam Quinones on July 30 2010, 11:10 AM

Rate sheet influential mortgage-backs are experiencing some localized weakness/relief. Nominally, spreads have been wider all morning but price levels were still pushing new records because Treasuries were catching a bid, but the poo hit the fan a few...
The Day Ahead: Q2 GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Stocks Testing Support

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by Patrick McGee on July 30 2010, 8:29 AM

A busy day awaits the markets as investors get their first look at second-quarter GDP. Also in the store is the influential Chicago Business Barometer which gives an update on how the economy is recovering in the midwest, plus a consumer sentiment index...
Treasury Auctions Done. Bonds Cautiously Resilient as Stocks Repeat History

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by Adam Quinones on July 29 2010, 1:09 PM

I hinted at this observation this morning but I will expand. The last time 10s broke through 3.00%...it was during an auction week. It just so happened that stocks rallied during that period, mostly thanks to a short squeeze. Unfortunately the S&P...
The Day Ahead: Moody's Questions U.S. Credit Rating. Bonds Shrug Off News

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by Patrick McGee on July 29 2010, 8:30 AM

Equity futures are trading higher this morning despite word from Moody’s that it would have to question America’s triple-A credit rating unless it provides a credible plan to tackle its growing deficit. Steve Hess, a top sovereign debt analyst at Moody...
MBS Prices Hit New Record High After 5-Year Note Auction

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by Adam Quinones on July 28 2010, 11:44 AM

Front-month TBA levels set yet another new record high this morning and yield spreads continued to tighten vs. benchmarks. While the street more than likely sees the current coupon in the +55/10s range, my weighting on the 4.0 has the current coupon closer...
The Day Ahead: Durable Goods, Beige Book, 5-Year Notes

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by Patrick McGee on July 27 2010, 9:40 PM

The September Delivery FNCL 4.0 is +0-03 at 101-15. The FNCL 4.5 is +0-03 at 103-25. The secondary market current coupon is 1.2bps lower at 3.747%. Yield spreads are wider to start the session. ...
Dealers Prop 2-Year Auction Demand. Assessing Lender Reprice Potential

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by Adam Quinones on July 27 2010, 1:51 PM

The only reason I'm not saying this auction was terrible is because yields were so low prior to the issue that it likely kept some accounts on the sidelines. This is illustrated via the high bid-to-cover ratio and low "hit rate" seen from...
The Day Ahead: Case-Shiller Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Treasury Supply

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by Patrick McGee on July 27 2010, 7:21 AM

The S&P broke key resistance yesterday, this morning those advances are being extended and interest rates are trending higher....
Rates Holding FTQ Bid as Stocks Hit Session Highs. Loan Pricing Comparison

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by Adam Quinones on July 26 2010, 11:53 AM

The last time S&Ps moved over 1,100, the 10 year note touched 3.12%, but that was right before the Treasury auctioned debt supply in the long end of the curve. Today trading volumes are low in the rates market and the "flight to safety"...
The Week Ahead: Q2 GDP, New Home Sales, Treasury Auctions, Case-Shiller HPI

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by Patrick McGee on July 26 2010, 7:55 AM

Ahead of Friday’s look at second-quarter GDP, economists at BMO Capital Markets noted that earnings results have been mostly positive so far. “Even if many stocks are struggling to move higher, the underlying results look solid, with little to suggest...
The Disconnect Between the Primary and Secondary Mortgage Markets

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by Adam Quinones on July 23 2010, 3:34 PM

A mismatch between credit standards and the credit and collateral supplied by homeowners. Plus, the looming threat of a buyback always creates some sort of hang up, something always seem to go wrong, whether it be an appraisal issue or a random 40 pt...
EU Stress Test Results: Contagion Gets a Second Chance. When Will It End?

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by Adam Quinones on July 23 2010, 12:00 PM

These "stress tests" are just an exercise in improving confidence. The results are hypothetical and don't prove or disprove anything. If we were to get nitpicky, only 7 failed and a measly 3.5 billion euros is all that's needed to sure...
The Day Ahead: ECB Stress Tests in Focus

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by Patrick McGee on July 23 2010, 7:52 AM

No significant data is released in the US, but the European Central Bank will release the results of bank stress tests. A survey of 376 investors and funds in Europe, initiated by Goldman Sachs, indicates that 10 banks are expected to fail the tests....
Revisiting the "Phantom Coupon" Discussion. Will We See 3.5s Trade Forward In Size?

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by Adam Quinones on July 22 2010, 5:44 PM

Even though rate sheet influential MBS coupons backed away from newly set (again) price levels as risk markets rallied today, rate sheets were 7.4bps better on average and buydowns cheapened 2.1bps, on average. Yesterday we witnessed two lenders adjusting...
Uncertain Times Keep Markets Defensive. Flight to Safety Alive and Well

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by Adam Quinones on July 22 2010, 8:33 AM

Uncertainty is the only certainty and short-term tactical (non-committal) biases determine directionality. It's still a trader's world and we're still living in it! Be ready for chopatility....

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