June 2010 - MBS Commentary

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Spike in Failed Trades Forces Fed Back into MBS Market

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2010, 6:15 PM

This week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) began conducting a limited amount of agency mortgage-backed security (MBS) "coupon swap operations" in order to facilitate the timely settlement of agency MBS...
Markets Slow Into Quarter-End. Traders Consolidate Positions and Await Headlines

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2010, 11:58 AM

Overall, these observations imply uncertainty is the only certainty in the marketplace. While this is to be expected ahead of a major economic event (the Employment Situation Report), recent BIG PICTURE developments lead us to believe the market's...
The Day Ahead: ADP Employment Report, Manufacturing Metric, Fed Speak

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by Patrick McGee on June 30 2010, 8:06 AM

Equity futures are looking for a brighter open this morning after the European Central Bank said it would lend 171 banks a total of €131.9 billion for three months. The pledge is, however, less than the €250-300 that economists were expecting. Ninety...
Benchmark Yields Heading Into Double Dip Territory

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by Adam Quinones on June 29 2010, 6:43 PM

Lets review recent events. As euro crisis contagion exhausted itself in May, stocks began to rise from long-term support levels. Short covering led to more short covering and stocks rallied all the way into quadruple witching day. This was not an originator...
Loan Pricing Today Vs. Loan Pricing Last Wednesday

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by Adam Quinones on June 29 2010, 11:39 AM

Upon inspection, it looks like loan pricing is more aggressive today than it was last Wednesday. Are my spreadsheets lying to me or is that an accurate observation? If you're seeing the same thing, then rate sheets are probably pretty stinkin close...
Data Flash: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index +0.8% in April

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by Adam Quinones on June 29 2010, 9:02 AM

The April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index has been released. Data was better than expected. Stock futures and interest rates really didn't react to the headlines. S&Ps are currently -14.75 at 1056.25. The 10yr note is +0-10 at 104-12 yielding...
The Day Ahead: Global Equity Sell-Off Ahead of Housing Data

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by Patrick McGee on June 29 2010, 8:17 AM

Equity futures are tracking global stocks sharply lower this morning as investors await key housing price data and results from a consumer confidence survey. The sell-off was prompted by a leading economics indicator for China. The Conference Board, which...
MBS Extend Rally as Benchmarks Approach Long Term Resistance

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by Adam Quinones on June 28 2010, 5:15 PM

The 10 year note is all set for a test of 3.00% and S&Ps are ready to see how strong 1070 support really is....if this trade plays out overnight into the morning session, you should see a few more bps on rate sheets in the AM. Be careful though, in...
Reprices For Better Due From Early Session Loan Pricers

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by Adam Quinones on June 28 2010, 1:19 PM

Did you notice how aggressively lenders were priced this morning? A few rate sheets were over 50 bps better on 4.625, 4.50, and 4.375% notes! While more than one of the major secondary marketing desks decided to release a portion of the cushion that was...
The Week Ahead: Housing Prices, Pending Home Sales, Employment Situation Report, ISM Manufacturing

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by Patrick McGee on June 28 2010, 7:48 AM

Equity futures are trading higher after G20 leaders pledged to cut government deficits and decided to drop a 2012 deadline for banks to adopt more stringent risk-provisioning rules. READ MORE Stocks moved lower last week, the S&P 500 fell 4.65%, or...
The Phantom MBS Coupon: Lenders Battle a Lack of Liquidity

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by Adam Quinones on June 25 2010, 4:39 PM

If we're really headed for a double dip, interest rates will surely move lower. I'm just not sure how much further mortgage rates can fall though......
Lock Desks Cushion Loan Pricing As Secondary Sorts Through Commitments

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by Adam Quinones on June 25 2010, 10:01 AM

Don't be surprised if secondary marketing is a little under the weather today. You will likely experience modest delays as lock desks are now sorting through the mess of new locks that entered the pipeline yesterday...
The Day Ahead: GDP & Consumer Sentiment Revisions

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by Patrick McGee on June 25 2010, 8:12 AM

Equity futures are pointing higher this morning after the House and Senate agreed to a final version of what’s being called the the biggest regulatory overhaul since the Great Depression. Ninety minutes before the opening bell, Dow futures are up 23 points...
7-Year TSY Auction Sees Strong Demand. Rates Consolidate and Continue Higher

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by Adam Quinones on June 24 2010, 1:26 PM

The 7-year note auction went well...but benchmark yields are still on the rise. I would characterize the behavior of the 10yr note as "indecisive consolidation followed by continuation". In other words, the 10yr note was trend upward in a choppy...
Reprices For The Worse Possible Ahead of Auction

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by Adam Quinones on June 24 2010, 12:09 PM

With MBS prices hitting new highs on a daily basis, lock desks and traders have able to get away with being under hedged. While this strategy works out great if MBS prices are rising, the opposite occurs when prices are falling. When secondary is operating...

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