May 2010 - MBS Commentary

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Happy Memorial Day From MND

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by Adam Quinones on May 28 2010, 2:46 PM

"For these men are lately drawn from the ways of peace. They fight not for the lust of conquest. They fight to end conquest. They fight to liberate. They fight to let justice arise, and tolerance and good will among all Thy people. "...
MBS Prices Rally After Econ Data. Early Close For Bond Traders

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by Adam Quinones on May 28 2010, 9:42 AM

It is still unclear whether the stock market rally we witnessed yesterday was simply a short term correction in the context of a broader downtrend or a bottoming out/trend reversal. Volume in equities was below average which implies upside momentum is...
Window Dressing Begins. Bonds End Bad Day At Worst Levels

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by Adam Quinones on May 27 2010, 4:47 PM

The violent spike in rates we witnessed today will force market participants to re-evaluate their strategic and tactical biases as bullish interest rate technicals have reversed course. The stock lever is still our primary guidance giver though. If stocks...
Healthy Concession Balances Demand For 7-Year Notes. Market Sideways After Auction

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by Adam Quinones on May 27 2010, 1:09 PM

Average auction. Demand was there but at higher yields. We're lucky stocks weren't selling today because this issuance would have gone worse if yields were any lower. Not much difference in market levels after the results were released. S&Ps...
MBS Lower and Wider As Originators Hedge and Servicers Shed Duration. Reprices Likely

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by Adam Quinones on May 27 2010, 11:11 AM

Mortgages are experiencing some localized weakness thanks to a modest pick up in originator selling (5.0s) and servicer duration dumping. The FNCL 4.5 is -0-17 at 101-26. The secondary market current coupon is +10.6bps at 4.163%. Yield spreads are at...
Econ Data Recap. Rates Break Long Standing Support Ahead of Auction

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by Adam Quinones on May 27 2010, 8:21 AM

FNCL 45 -11 at 101-31. Current Coupon:+7.5bps at 4.132%. MBS Yield Spreads Tighter In Busy Flows. 10s: +11.5bps at 3.307%. 2s/10s: +8 at 245bps. S&Ps: +21.25 at 1082.50. High print: 1092. Low print: 1055.50. ECON DATA Mixed. Nothing New. Stock Lever...
MBS End Choppy Session On Level Ground. Spreads Wider

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by Adam Quinones on May 26 2010, 5:45 PM

Rate sheet influential MBS valuations had another volatile day thanks to some violent swings in the stock market. We did however make it through normal work hours without reprices for the worse, unfortunately the damage was done to mortgage rates early...
Rates Test Technical Support After Average 5 Year Note Auction

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by Adam Quinones on May 26 2010, 2:05 PM

Our fate rests mostly in the stock lever. If the S&P breaks 1090 and 10s push through 3.25% support...reprices for the worse are likely. Some smaller regional lenders may already have recalls in process so be careful if you are floating. You know...
New Home Sales Beat Forecasts

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by Adam Quinones on May 26 2010, 10:15 AM

U.S. equities rallied into the close yesterday. This momentum extended into the overnight session all the way into this morning. A WAY BETTER THAN EXPECTED April New Home Sales print just added some steam to the equity rally.......
MBS Close Near Weakest Price Levels Of Day, Still Range-Bound

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by Matthew Graham on May 25 2010, 4:08 PM

MBS close +8 ticks on the day, at 102-11, but that's off highs around 102-15. 10yr notes have backed up aggressively and directionally, rising from 3.10+ to 3.17. Close at 3.16%. Stocks meanwhile surge late day, but all of the above are simple movements...
Auction Buyers Less Inclined To Bid At Record Low Yields

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by Matthew Graham on May 25 2010, 1:09 PM

In and of itself, the auction wasn't good, at least not when comparing metric to metric vs recent averages. But how much should we have expected those metrics (like BTC and PD %'s) to be skewed by the low yield? Apparently a lot, because despite...
Risk Averse Bias Steady After Housing Data

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by Adam Quinones on May 25 2010, 9:38 AM

Housing did nothing to reverse the risk averse bias in stocks. The flight to quality into government bonds continues...mortgage rates should improve this morning. The S&P finds support around 1040 then 1026 then....well then 1000 is our next stop...
MBS Prices At Lows Of Day -- Reprice Risk Rising

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by Matthew Graham on May 24 2010, 3:11 PM

So here we are in a relatively light-on-data Monday following a week that saw some huge movements across all markets and the the sense of anticlimax is palpable. It happens occasionally, but not often that stocks and treasuries and MBS are all down on...
MBS Move Lower To Begin Week. Still Waiting For Range Breakout.

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by Matthew Graham on May 24 2010, 12:39 PM

The process of markets PREPARING to either confirm this range or to retrace back into weaker territory is evident in the CONSOLIDATION patterns that AQ mentioned this AM. All that means is that, with respect to themselves, the lows and the highs are getting...
Rates Range Consolidates As Markets Search For Direction

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by Adam Quinones on May 24 2010, 10:19 AM

Stocks and bonds traded in a volatile manner last week as cash continued to seek out a liquid marketplace. Risk aversion remains the favored strategic bias. Fundamentally there are a confluence of issues at hand, including but not limited to: global...

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