April 2010 - MBS Commentary

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MBS End Week At Best Price Levels Since Fed Was Buying Mortgages

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by Matthew Graham on April 30 2010, 5:01 PM

Month long rallies in and of themselves are sometimes sufficient cause for the momentum to take a break, either to merely "catch it's breath" or worse: to reconsider it's previous direction altogether. Either way, it's really hard...
Reprices for the Better Reported. More Lock/Float Considerations

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by Matthew Graham on April 30 2010, 1:14 PM

Take a careful look at the charts and how good your pricing is, and consider the trend channel in treasuries is now closer to indicating a move higher in yields unless the trend actual BREAKS. But I'm guessing if it breaks to the downside, we'll...
Consumer Spending Grows in Q1 2010. Rates Rally Around Technical Bias

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2010, 10:45 AM

This is exactly why we have been preaching the fundamentals of GUTFLOP so much lately. PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU and LOCK AT THE PRICE HIGHS FLOAT AT THE PRICE LOWS again echoes in my ears. ...
Can MBS Hold Their Gains With a Busy Econ Calendar Ahead?

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2010, 5:14 PM

While a sell off may be in the cards, the recent movements, trends, and volume would put the onus for that more on the the strength or weakness of the data tomorrow. Strong data... We'd probably lose a bit. Economically bearish data and this thing...
Bonds Extend Rally Around Technical Trends. Locks On Hold Into Close

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2010, 3:10 PM

Fannie 4.5's up 7 ticks at 100-21. 10's down a few bps from 7yr auction time at 1pm from 3.75 to 3.73. Stocks pausing at resistance, while bonds catch a 2nd wind from theirs. 10yr chart is getting pretty cool......
7 Year Treasury Note Auction Results and Reactions

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by Adam Quinones on April 29 2010, 2:17 PM

Same story as yesterday, just more pronounced. Strong demand from the right investors at the right yield. Dealers didn't have to do much heavy lifting at all as both direct and indirect bidders showed up in size. Perhaps overseas accounts were aggressively...
Jobless Claims Fall During NFP Survey Week. Market on Tapebomb Watch

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by Adam Quinones on April 29 2010, 10:43 AM

There is a ton of noise surrounding the marketplace at the moment, and it's coming mostly out of the EU. I don't see the trading environment acting any different than it has over the past year though. BIG PICTURE perspectives are clouded by assumptions...
Bonds Go From One Extreme To Another In One Day

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by Matthew Graham on April 28 2010, 4:14 PM

If you believe in the continuation of the existing trends/ranges, you understand we might be dealing with a probe to slightly higher yields, but continue to favor the float until the trend is meaningfully broken. If you'd rather avoid the volatility...
5 Year Treasury Note Auction Results and Reactions

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by Adam Quinones on April 28 2010, 2:03 PM

The Treasury has successfully auctioned $42 billion 5 year notes. This was the 6th consecutive offering at this size and likely one of the last times as the Treasury is expected to reduce auction sizes in the months ahead....
Contagion Carries Downgrades Deeper into EU. Rates Storing Energy for Auction

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by Adam Quinones on April 28 2010, 11:40 AM

Spain Downgraded To 'AA' On Protracted Economic Adjustment And Risks To Budgetary Position; Outlook Negative From S&P RATINGS : In our opinion, Spain is likely to have an extended period of subdued economic growth, which weakens its budgetary...
Goldman Sachs Defends Action as Market Maker. IMF Said to Offer +€100 Billion to Greek Rescue. Rates Higher

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by Adam Quinones on April 28 2010, 10:25 AM

So does this stock selloff stick or is it viewed simply as an opportunity to buy the S&P below 1200? I say rip and run traders! Unless you think the world coming to an end and we should all buy gold and stock up on ammo....come on. While this sovereign...
Greek Downgrade Moves Markets. MBS Along For The Ride

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by Matthew Graham on April 27 2010, 4:54 PM

It's hard to know how all this will play out in coming days, but I do think it's significant that we saw the highest volume in over a month a day BEFORE an FOMC announcement and a 5yr note auction. There's not much justification to lock any...
2 Year Treasury Note Auction Results and Reactions

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by Adam Quinones on April 27 2010, 2:25 PM

Direct bidders offset a continued reduction in indirect demand while primary dealers mopped up the remaining mess. It always makes me nervous when dealers have to step up and take down more inventory than usual. We would rather have the debt in the hands...
Stock Lever Helps Rates Break Resistance and Extend Rally. Reprices Reported

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by Adam Quinones on April 27 2010, 12:23 PM

Looks like the market is favoring the flight to safety side of the "conflicting view" story I described in the OPEN. The stock lever has engaged in an originator friendly fashion and lenders are due to reprice for the better as a result. Thank...
Rates Hold Overnight Rally After Data. Conflicting Views in Cloudy Environment

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by Adam Quinones on April 27 2010, 10:14 AM

In order for the 10 yr note to see much more positive progress, we need 2s to fall below 1.00% again. I doubt that will happen before the FOMC releases their policy statement tomorrow at 2:15pm....especially with the auction happening today. In fact I...

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