March 2010 - MBS Commentary

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MBS Close at Lowest Prices Of The Day Despite Treasury Rally

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2010, 4:09 PM

I discussed a few technical levels last night. Specifically, that 100-16, 100-10, and 100-07 were good levels to keep an eye on. That call turned out pretty good today as those have been our noticeable turning points throughout the day. If you got...
Preparing for the Fed's Exit from the Mortgage Market: Yield Spreads

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by Adam Quinones on March 31 2010, 1:38 PM

Mortgage market participants must now face the reality of a life without the supportive, flow balancing, volatility calming bid of the Federal Reserve. It's time to ensure everyone's knowledge base is adequately prepared to explain some of the...
MBS Price Volatility Picks Up as Fed Funding Runs Dry. Reprices Possible

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by Adam Quinones on March 31 2010, 11:16 AM

The Fannie 4.5 MBS coupon has lost all positive progress that was picked up following a much weaker than forecast ADP print at 815am. The FN 4.5 is currently -0-01 at 100-08 yielding 4.477%...well off its intraday high of 100-16. CHANCES FOR REPRICES...
ADP DATA: Small, Goods Producing Firms Drag Down Labor Market. Rates Return to Range

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by Adam Quinones on March 31 2010, 9:39 AM

Nonfarm private employment decreased 23,000 from February to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Goods producing businesses are still the weakest sector of the labor market, with small firms still being the biggest source of job losses. This weak...
Flat Afternoon For MBS While Treasuries Improve Slightly

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2010, 5:07 PM

Major lock decisions deal more with Friday than anything. From there, anything you know you're going to lock before NFP, the closer MBS are to 100-16, the more locky I'd feel. But I might also be a bit worried that MBS could just go sideways then...
Don't Expect Much Of A Rally Before NFP

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2010, 1:18 PM

4.5's down 5 ticks on the day to 100-07 10yr yields relatively unchanged (1 tick down on day) at 3.87 A look at the important 2yr vs. 10yr spread of 282bps Whether it was consumer confidence, a retreating stock rally, or the mystery box (more to come...
Consumer Confidence Stronger, Bonds Stabilize For Now

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2010, 10:04 AM

With Consumer Confidence out, the bleeding in bonds seems to have stopped for the moment. A bit of a paradox at first glance since the data beat expectations of 50.0, coming in at 52.5. After a revision, last month stood at 46.4. Consumers were more...
Bonds Weaker After First Round of Morning Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2010, 9:10 AM

Using your microscope, you might be able to see the hint of a top forming on the treasury yield chart. hopefully, that materializes, which would help MBS do the same. We start the discussion with treasuries today (and most days recently) because as far...
Much Narrower Ranges Than Friday. Preparing For NFP

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by Matthew Graham on March 29 2010, 5:08 PM

FN 4.5's close (surprise surprise) UNCHANGED at 100-13+, the middle of it's trading range today 10yr yield closes at 3.867, also the middle of it's trading range today Stocks indeed thwarted by 1174 in the S&P. There were technical levels...
Plenty Of Volatility In Treasuries. MBS Stable in Sideways Trend Channel

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by Matthew Graham on March 29 2010, 2:44 PM

We're hearing quite a few questions about census jobs distorting Friday's NFP number. Here's the thing though... If we already know that temporary census hiring accounts for 150k in the jobs report, that is necessarily already included in...
Best Levels of the Day Hit. Rates Now Chopping in Opposite Direction

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by Adam Quinones on March 29 2010, 12:28 PM

Plain and Simple: the long end of the yield curve is the biggest loser today. This is most likely a function of low trading volume and a thinly attended marketplace. Working market participants are selling into strength and buying at the lows.....this...
Rates Still Testing Resistance, Still Trying to Re-Enter Range

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by Adam Quinones on March 29 2010, 10:07 AM

10s must break 3.85% and re-enter the 3.57 to 3.85% range for us to see further positive rebound rally progress. Still watching and waiting......
Friday MBS Rally Gives Pause To Interest Rate Pessimism

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2010, 3:50 PM

Bonds are still more likely to move over 3.85 in the longer term, but there is enough room for the possibility that we could catch a break in the short term. Then of course if the sky falls, we could even catch a break in the long term, but we're...
Widespread Reprices for the Better Reported. Still Battling Resistance Levels

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2010, 1:31 PM

Strength in treasuries and consequently MBS today has led to widespread reprices for the better. But if we get a 3pm mark around 3.85, it could lead to additional resilience in the month-end week beginning monday....
Treasuries Trying to Re-Enter Range. MBS at Price Highs. Reprices Due

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by Adam Quinones on March 26 2010, 12:16 PM

I have nothing but good news for mortgages. "Rate sheet influential" MBS prices are higher, current coupon yield spreads are tighter, and REPRICES FOR THE BETTER ARE ABOUT TO/HAVE HIT YOUR INBOX!!! This should help originators start to refill...

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