February 2010 - MBS Commentary

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MBS WEEKLY: Bearish Bond Technicals Battle Mixed Econ Outlook

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by Adam Quinones on February 26 2010, 4:58 PM

Well well well, look where we sit. 10s rose from 3.60 to 3.80 in seven sessions. Took a short breather. Then fell from 3.80 to 3.60 in four days. Chop chop chop . On the week, the 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year Treasury note was +1-09. That's +41/32...
MBS AFTERNOON: Reprices for the Better Reported

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by Adam Quinones on February 26 2010, 3:05 PM

Although "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are off intra day price highs, we are seeing reprices for the better. If you're floating in the short term, wait a bit longer as you should pick up between .125 and .375 bps after rates are republished...
MBS LUNCH: Rally On! Enjoy The Ride

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2010, 12:53 PM

AT A GLANCE No Further Data Left Today No Further Trading Days Left This Month (traditional month end lift for bonds) Stocks Unable To Break Previous Highs Ongoing Lack Of Super-Bullish Data MBS and Tsy's Both Taking The Opportunity To Test Resistance...
MBS MORNING: Existing Home Sales Falls Short Of Expectations

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2010, 10:33 AM

AT A GLANCE MBS up 4 ticks on the day at 101-03 (tough resistance at 101-04) 10yr Tsy up a tick with mid to high 3.62 yield (tough resistance at 3.62) Existing Home Sales at 5.05 mln vs. consensus of 5.5 mln Chicago PMI at 62.6 vs 60.0 consensus, highest...
MBS OPEN: Limited Reaction To Upward Revision In GDP

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by Matthew Graham on February 26 2010, 8:42 AM

AT A GLANCE (you like it when we do this?) GDP headline Slightly Better than expected at 5.9 vs 5.7, but tamer than expected inflation, and consumer spending. Those Internals, plus more news out of Greece, and the data yet to come on the day is helping...
MBS CLOSE: Time To Ignore MBS?

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2010, 5:28 PM

Ok, so it's never a good time to ignore the MBS market, but the real question wouldn't fit into the title. Even then, it's a rhetorical question anyway, the purpose of which, to suggest that we merely ignore past ranges of MBS as indicative...
MBS AFTERNOON: Another Day, Another Range Trade

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2010, 3:20 PM

Eerily similar patterns forming in MBS this afternoon versus yesterday. The only major difference would be the direction of the rangebound narrowing that has occurred on both days. That left us with an "unresolved triangle" yesterday, and the...
MBS LUNCH: 7 Year Treasury Auction Results

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by Matthew Graham on February 25 2010, 1:03 PM

HIGH YIELD 3.078 PCT, 9.60 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.98, NON-COMP BIDS $35.2 MLN PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $13.57 BLN OF 7-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $12.89 BLN The detailed results as well as charts will be appended to this post shortly. Just...
MBS MORNING: Rates Dealers Trying to Tell Us Something?

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by Adam Quinones on February 25 2010, 11:44 AM

Trading in the bond market has been a tale of two objectives. On one hand dealers are trying to push prices lower (yields higher) ahead of $32 billion 7s at 1pm, aka selling into strength. These accounts are battling it out with flight to safety bidders...
MBS OPEN: Bonds Rally Overnight. Extend Gains After Data

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by Adam Quinones on February 25 2010, 8:42 AM

The 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is currently +0-15 at 99-29 yielding 3.639%. Lately I have been using Fibonacci retracements as a technical guidance giver, with Dec.21 being my base. This morning 10s have moved down to 3.64%, this is the 62...
MBS CLOSE: Minimal Losses On The Day

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2010, 5:07 PM

By close today, FN 4.5's had lost a mere tick to end at 100-24. 5's were the strongest, finishing unchanged, while everything farther away from "the belly" got progressively worse with premiums (6.0's and up) getting hit the hardest...
MBS AFTERNOON: Out Of Danger, But ....

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2010, 3:43 PM

As treasury yields backed up modestly after the 5yr auction, MBS prices were forced downward lest mortgage spreads achieve levels of tightness only imagined by the waistband of my pre-"wife and kids" wardrobe. And though sufficient danger of...
MBS ALERT: Important Support Being Tested. Reprices Possible

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2010, 1:50 PM

Note on the chart how the 10yr had been having it's longest battle (successfully until just now!) with support levels at 3.70. With that breakout, the risk of a reprice for the worse becomes a reality to a much greater extent than it has been. Please...
MBS LUNCH: 5yr Auction Fails To Stir Bond Markets

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by Matthew Graham on February 24 2010, 1:21 PM

Results of the 5yr Note Auction HIGH YIELD 2.395 PCT, 32.83 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.75, PRIMARY DEALERS TAKE $19.58 BLN OF 5-YEAR NOTES SALE, INDIRECT $16.87 BLN This has been one of the more lackluster responses to a Treasury Auction...
MBS MORNING: Recap and Reaction to Bernanke Testimony

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by Adam Quinones on February 24 2010, 11:21 AM

We've heard all this already, not much new content to discuss. The market's main focus is on monetary policy. The Fed is going to keep the Fed Funds Rate for a long time, it will be one of the last moves employed after a long road of gradual withdrawal...

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