January 2010 - MBS Commentary

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Dec. and Jan. Months In Review: By The Charts

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2010, 5:18 PM

Let's try something a little different for the weekend... No novel tonight. Lock/Float considerations were well discussed earlier in the day. But when we move like we did today, I get the urge to psychoanalyze the charts. So here's a tale of 9...
MBS LUNCH: Reprices for the Better Possible If....

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by Adam Quinones on January 29 2010, 1:06 PM

Today's rates rally started as one of those "sell the rumor, buy the news" aka FADE THE DATA moves. The bond market knew GDP would be strong, so they opened SHORT positions. Those positions were then covered at 3.68% (117-16 in TY) and now...
MBS MORNING: Bonds Continue To Shrug Off GDP News

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2010, 11:19 AM

AQ couldn't have said it any better earlier this AM. Indeed, when 5.7% growth hit the screens, our first instinct was to assume, "ok, well, that is not the REAL and representative measure of growth, so where's the discrepancy and what internals...
MBS OPEN: Inventories Account for 59% of GDP Gains. Rates Still Contained in Range

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by Adam Quinones on January 29 2010, 8:38 AM

LESS CONTRACTION IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES ACCOUNTED FOR 59% OF GDP GAINS! This will not carry over into Q1 2010. While markets had a muted reaction to the data, recent weakness in stocks is beginning to reverse and bearish sentiment in bonds is building...
MBS CLOSE: Bonds End At Highs Of The Day

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2010, 5:20 PM

After another decent auction--this time $32 bln in 7yr Notes--bonds showed little inclination toward volatile movement in either direction. Relatively light supply in MBS vs. relatively healthy demand across the stack (but from different sources - Fed...
MBS AFTERNOON: Range Narrows Ahead Of Confirmation Vote

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2010, 3:47 PM

All the shoes have dropped for the trading day, so what is there left to do? Sideways and range-bound with decreasing volatility? Sounds good... But don't let the docile nature of the charts fool you. Sure, it looks like we've had a low volatility...
MBS LUNCH: 7-Year Auction Results and Market Reaction

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by Adam Quinones on January 28 2010, 1:03 PM

The Treasury has successfully auctioned $32 billion 7-year notes. Auction demand was strong, but the rates market has failed to make positive progress. This is a function of a few reasons. Stocks are rebounding and traders are betting on a steeper yield...
MBS MORNING: Sideways Regardless of Stock Lever. Auction Outlook

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by Adam Quinones on January 28 2010, 11:51 AM

Rates are not benefiting from the stock lever because of three reasons. Auction concession + unwind of FOMC flatteners + Bernanke uncertainty. My outlook for rates after the auction results are released: The recent relief rally doesnt appear to be completely...
MBS OPEN: Perspective on Bond Market Weakness. Reaction to Politics

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by Adam Quinones on January 28 2010, 8:41 AM

All was good in the rates market leading up to 215pm yesterday. Rate sheet rebate was holding close to month over month bests, 10s were quietly bouncing back and forth around 3.62% and the FN 4.5 MBS coupon continued to move in a range. This was all...
MBS CLOSE: Can Tomorrow's Events Help Bonds Bounce Back?

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2010, 5:19 PM

As AQ noted in the last commentary, sellers dominated after the FOMC statement. It's fairly plain to see that this was the significant event of the day in the chart below: The question is, will it be the significant event of the week? In other words...
MBS AFTERNOON: Heading Out Near Lows of the Day

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by Adam Quinones on January 27 2010, 4:00 PM

Mortgages are heading into the close near their worst price levels of the day. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 97-21 yielding 4.224% and the FN 4.5 is -0-06 at 100-24 yielding 4.428%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.397%. We've seen a handful of lenders...
MBS ALERT: FOMC Statement Released. Rates Head Higher

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by Adam Quinones on January 27 2010, 2:20 PM

REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE LIKELY....REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE LIKELY....REPRICES FOR THE WORSE ARE LIKELY...
MBS LUNCH: $42 Billion 5 Year Note Auction Results

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2010, 1:05 PM

As of right this very moment, there has been no negative response to the recently released auction results. This places the brunt of the potential volatility today on the FOMC statement which comes at 2:15, but can vary by several minutes. As for the...
MBS MORNING: Rally Moderates Ahead Of Auction and FOMC

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2010, 11:33 AM

With weaker than expected data this AM from MBA Applications and New Home Sales, bonds have been able to extend yesterday's rally as we move closer to the noon hour. But as you might expect ahead of the $42 bln 5yr note auction and the FOMC statement...
MBS OPEN: Sideways in the Same Range

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by Adam Quinones on January 27 2010, 9:23 AM

The day ahead promises to be busy. At 10am we get New Home Sales, then at 1pm the Treasury will release auction results on a $42 billion 5year note offering. After that the FOMC will release their policy statement at 215pm. Many mortgage market watchers...

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