November 2009 - MBS Commentary

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MBS CLOSE: MBS REACH ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH!

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2009, 5:08 PM

It was a fairly anticlimactic trading day on which to hit the highest closing prices in the history of the 4.5 MBS. With limited data to either douse the dreams or fuel the fires of Dubai-induced flights to quality, bonds were forced to turn to Chicago...
MBS LUNCH: Bonds Slightly Improved Across The Board

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2009, 2:32 PM

After more volatile morning movements, MBS have improved in a very narrow range into the afternoon with the 4.5 up 3 ticks from Friday's close to 101-19. Closing at this level would constitute an all time high. Tsy's meanwhile had been negative...
MBS MORNING: Wary of Stock Lever and Rates Profit Taking

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by Adam Quinones on November 30 2009, 11:46 AM

The FN 4.0 is -0-01 at 100-09 yielding 3.98% and the FN 4.5 is currently +0-00 at 102-16 yielding 4.198%. The secondary mortgage market current coupon is now 3.96%. The CC yield is +73bps/10yr TSY yield and +63bps/10yr swap rate. "Rate sheet influential"...
MBS OPEN: Holiday Bond Rally Struggling To Survive

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by Matthew Graham on November 30 2009, 8:40 AM

I can imagine that bonds stepped on the scale this AM much the same way as I did. Yes, the holiday's were good while they lasted, but things may be a bit too overweight this AM. If you weren't around for the rousing Friday that was, the main event...
MBS CLOSE: Exploring Rates Strategy Heading into Year End

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by Adam Quinones on November 27 2009, 3:38 PM

Lenders will find it more and more difficult to offload loan paper originated below 4.50%. The volatile duration of 4.0 MBS coupons adds an extra helping of "extension risk" to the value of mortgage related cash flows. While the Fed is still...
MBS MORNING: Ranges Moderate Amidst LOW Volume

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by Matthew Graham on November 27 2009, 10:53 AM

After the initial spikier responses to this AM's "Dubai Drama" prices are settling into a fairly logical range with recent highs and lows lying within highs and lows from the last two days. Even then, it wouldn't much matter if that...
MBS OPEN: Flight to Safety Leads Rates Lower

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by Adam Quinones on November 27 2009, 8:59 AM

he bond market is benefiting from a flight to safety rally after Dubai's Supreme Fiscal Committee announced they would ask creditors of Dubai World, the emirates investment arm, to defer for six months at least some of $60 billion owed to them....
MBS CLOSE: One Quarter Point From ALL TIME Highs

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by Matthew Graham on November 25 2009, 5:30 PM

I was both happy and sad upon my nightly review of the most recent blog post. I like to read it even if I've written it, to assess what else might be needed on the day... I was sad to see there's not much left to discuss and I know that you'll...
MBS AFTERNOON: Rates Move Outside the Range

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by Adam Quinones on November 25 2009, 3:37 PM

Last week the 10yr TSY note bounced around between 3.32% and 3.37%. Early on this week, that range was broken as 10yr note yields tested 3.42%. However, as positional support remained in tact, higher yields and lower prices drew out bargain buyers which...
MBS LUNCH: 7 Year Treasury Note Auction Results

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by Matthew Graham on November 25 2009, 1:04 PM

The initial reaction to the auction results has been positive, "rate sheet influential" MBS prices are higher. We wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't say that these time frames are historically extremely volatile, but the extent to...
MBS MORNING: MBS Breaking Even As Auction Approaches

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by Matthew Graham on November 25 2009, 10:39 AM

As has been very much the custom recently, Tsy's are having in "inside day" so far as ranges narrow into ready position before important data. If you need the refresher, "inside" refers to today's trading range lying inside...
MBS ALERT: Better Than Expected Housing Data Pushes Rates Higher

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by Adam Quinones on November 25 2009, 10:04 AM

New Home Sales data was just released...better than expected findings were reported. In October... Single-Family Home Sales rose 6.2% to an annual rate of 430,000 sales. Much better than the market's expectation for 410,000 annual sales and 25,000...
MBS OPEN: Choppy Start to Session After First Round of Data

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by Adam Quinones on November 25 2009, 9:30 AM

The FN 4.0 is +0-04 at 99-31 and the FN 4.5 is +0-04 at 102-12. I dont have to do much with my spreadsheet to figure out the current coupon. The FN 4.0 is just about at 100-00 which means...yeh you guessed it...the secondary market current coupon is just...
MBS CLOSE: Highest Closing Prices In Over Half A Year

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by Matthew Graham on November 24 2009, 5:34 PM

Spring of 2009 marked a period of the most stable MBS price movements for 4.5's. Not only was the range about as narrow as it gets, it was also solidly above 101-00. With the economy worsening and with the Fed love affair still in the courtship phase...
MBS AFTERNOON: Rallying Near All Time Highs After FOMC

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by Matthew Graham on November 24 2009, 2:37 PM

On only several occasions has the 4.5 MBS closed any higher than it is right now. The 4.5 is up 10 ticks on the day at 102-10. This is actually higher than the period of extreme stability and extremely high prices during the spring where the 4.5 topped...

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