October 2009 - MBS Commentary

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MBS CLOSE: Month Ends With MBS Over 101-00

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2009, 5:35 PM

With treasury auctions, testing of long term ranges, stock rallies, and stock sell off's, it was quite a choppy week. (long time no chopatility, eh?). The story of the day was the weak stock market. We discussed it earlier, but I'll put the chart...
MBS AFTERNOON: Reprices for Better Reported

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by Adam Quinones on October 30 2009, 3:47 PM

Heading into the 5pm 'LENDERS ARE REPRICING' marking period....the FN 4.0 is +0-14 at 98-20 yielding 4.143% and the FN 4.5 is trading +0-13 at 101-06 yielding 4.356%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.271%. Current coupon yield spreads...
MBS LUNCH: Just How Connected Are Stocks To The Dollar?

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2009, 2:13 PM

You may already be aware of the notion that stocks tend to be weaker when the currency in which they're denominated is stronger. You may even already have seen CNBC or Bloomberg put up a chart like the one we're about to show you. But for anyone...
MBS MORNING: Rates Moving Lower as Stocks Give Back Gains

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by Adam Quinones on October 30 2009, 11:10 AM

Phew. I took a risk this morning and decided NOT to issue an ALERT when benchmark yields starting rising at 10:30. In a choppy marketplace, when price action is randomly bouncing between pivot points...you have to constantly remind yourself to PLAY THE...
MBS OPEN: Lots of 8:30AM Data, Mixed Reactions

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2009, 8:33 AM

Econ Data Releases INCOME AND OUTLAYS PERSONAL SPENDING -0.5 PCT (CONSENSUS -0.5) VS AUG +1.4 PCT (PREV +1.3) PERSONAL INCOME UNCH (CONS UNCH) VS AUG +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.2) CORE PCE PRICE INDEX +0.1 PCT (+0.1247; CONS +0.2) VS AUG +0.1 PCT (PREV +0.1) OVERALL...
MBS CLOSE: Bonds Lose Some Ground Following WHAT!? Econ Data?!

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2009, 6:00 PM

We've long lamented, or perhaps merely called attention to, the disconnection of bonds prices from fundamentals such as economic indicators. Too often recently, the data will suggest one direction and the markets make a convincing head fake in that...
MBS AFTERNOON: Too Early To Call?

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2009, 3:33 PM

Of course there's plenty of time left in the day, but generally not much of that time is actively traded or especially volatile. And though we did see a 2 tick drop appear out of thin air after the Fed released their MBS purchasing activity for last...
MBS LUNCH: Hidden Message Amidst Post Auction Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2009, 1:45 PM

In traditional fashion, we've seen plenty of volatility after the auction. In case you're wondering what all this "auction fuss" is about, we're of course referring to the 7yr tsy auction, whose results were announced about an hour...
MBS ALERT: Auction Results

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2009, 1:03 PM

Not a good reaction so far to the 7 yr auction... 3.141 with 46% at high 2.65 BTC primary dealers take 11.48 with indirects taking 18.37 Always plenty of volatility after auctions, but reprices for the worse are a risk with the initial move, and they...
MBS MORNING: Approaching the Lows of the Day Ahead of Auction

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by Adam Quinones on October 29 2009, 11:43 AM

As the session has progressed, stocks have meandered higher and the benchmark rates market has consistently weakened as traders gladly welcomed the opportunity to build in concessions before the 1pm 7 yr note auction....
MBS OPEN: Rates Back Up After Data. Range Holding

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by Adam Quinones on October 29 2009, 8:57 AM

The bond market's reaction to 830AM data was not originator friendly. Cash market TSY yields are higher. The 10yr TSY note is trading -0-15 at 101-10 yielding 3.464%. Mortgages reacted poorly too, but not as bad as TSYs. MBS prices have already bounced...
MBS CLOSE: Can MBS Go Three For Three?

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2009, 5:35 PM

Some housekeeping before we get started... Who attended the HVCC/CFPA webinar? Take some time to use the comments section of this commentary to share your thoughts and impressions for discussion. Lots of buzz on FTHB tax credit, and it's potential...
MBS AFTERNOON: Stocks Weaker, MBS Rallies On.

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2009, 3:42 PM

After another treasury auction that failed to phase the fixed income market, it's simply business as usual, with no major suggestion of directionality until tomorrow's auction. Exactly as discussed this AM, a "ho-hum" auction wasn't...
MBS LUNCH: Rates Test Best Levels After Auction. Reprices Reported

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by Adam Quinones on October 28 2009, 1:20 PM

After an initial "knee jerk" move lower in price, the rates market is back to its best levels of the day. The 10yr note is currently +0-10 yielding 3.409%. The FN 4.0 is trading +0-14 at 98-19 yielding 4.146% and the FN 4.5 is 10/32 higher at...
MBS MORNING: Yesterday's Rally Extends As Auction Approaches

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by Matthew Graham on October 28 2009, 11:15 AM

The FN 4.0 is +0-10 at 98-15 yielding 4.159% while the FN 4.5 is trading 7/32nds higher at a bid of 100-30 yielding 4.387%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.33%. The FN 4.5 yield is currently 97.6 basis point higher than the 10yr TSY yield, wider...

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