September 2009 - MBS Commentary

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"Bernanke on Housing's Role in Recovery; Mortgage Rates Battle Back"

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MBS CLOSE: Good Old Fashioned Range Trade Until Friday

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2009, 5:04 PM

Maybe the markets will find some sort of impetus to get directional tomorrow, but so far this week, Monday's extension of Friday's rally merely set us up to bounce back and forth within a range as we wait for all the shoes to drop. Sure, shoes...
MBS AFTERNOON: Quarter End Market Chopatility

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by Adam Quinones on September 30 2009, 3:32 PM

After hitting an intraday high of 101-16 this morning, an unfriendly trend channel developed and the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low print of 101-04. Since hitting that intraday low...the FN 4.5 has moved to the middle of the recent RANGE. Currently the...
MBS ALERT: Yes, It's Finally Time For A Reprice Alert...

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2009, 1:03 PM

Plainly and simply, prices are at their lowest point of the day. And though this STILL leaves MBS over 101-00 on the 4.5 and the 10yr is still under 3.35 (yesterday's high). As has been the case with many alerts recently, we're putting this out...
MBS MORNING: Running Into Resistance. Breakout or Bounce?

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by Adam Quinones on September 30 2009, 11:53 AM

The recent bond market rally has led the yield curve and benchmark TSYs into numerous resistance levels that, if broken, might imply a general shift in the sentiment of the market place. Although the convergence of month end and quarter end supportive...
MBS OPEN: GDP Takes A Shot, But Bonds Still Standing (so far)

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2009, 8:50 AM

The AM So Far... * ADP worse than expected at -254k * GDP Better than expected at -.7 vs. consensus of -1.2 # Bonds Initial reaction DOWN, 10 yr yields up, but have found resistance in both MBS and tsy's at better levels than yesterdays low range...
MBS CLOSE: Heady Prices Propped Up By Data

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2009, 5:06 PM

Tuesday 9/29 at a Glance * MBS down 1 tick on the day to 101-11, continuing to close at multi-month highs * Real Money (insurance funds, etc..) took profits at times, nothing hedge funds and servicer buying couldn't handle. * New production (MBS being...
MBS AFTERNOON: Pipeline Management Considerations

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2009, 4:03 PM

It wasnt a very busy trading session for mortgages. Much of the action took place this morning between 9AM and 10AM. As prices ticked higher banks were profit takers (as expected) while servicers were adding duration to their portfolios (rate sheet influential...
MBS LUNCH: Tale Of Two Triangles

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2009, 1:40 PM

We're about overdue for some triangles wouldn't you say? Today's post morning correction certainly provides for that. Triangles mean different things to different people. Some technical analysts consider a topside breakout to be support for...
MBS MORNING: Rates Recover Losses After Consumer Confidence Data

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2009, 11:36 AM

September Consumer Confidence Survey data registered a 53.1 read vs. the consensus estimate of 57.0 and the previous 54.5 (revised from 54.1). Following the release, rates rallied from intraday price lows/yield highs. The FN 4.5 bounced off the intraday...
MBS OPEN: Giving Back Some Gains

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by Adam Quinones on September 29 2009, 8:57 AM

Good Morning. The rates market is giving back a portion of yesterday's gains. Stock futures are higher. The 10yr TSY note yield is trading near 3.33%. The FN 4.5 is -0-05 at 101-07. It is expected to be another light volume day as quarter end is looming...
MBS CLOSE: No News Was Good News

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2009, 5:05 PM

For MBS, Tsys, and Stocks alike, no news was good news today as all three markets rallied amidst a lack of scheduled data, headline drama, or meaningful volume. Perhaps the point about volume should be mentioned separately as it's more of a result...
MBS AFTERNOON: Spotty Reprices for the Better Reported

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2009, 3:54 PM

Heading into the 5pm "MY SCREENS ARE ALREADY TURNED OFF" marking period, the FN 4.5 is at the highs of the day...+0-07 at 101-11 yielding 4.33%. Spotty reprices for the better were reported, better rate sheet rebates were not widespread....
MBS LUNCH: Continuing To Push Highs On Low Volume

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2009, 1:55 PM

Arguments are ongoing for adjusting the current MBS range upward. At the moment, the 4.5 is up 4 ticks to 101-08 and the 10yr tsy is up 4 ticks (in price) as well, bringing the yield down to 3.31. But this latter metric might serve to sober the excitement...
MBS MORNING: Mortgages Trade Thinly. Playing Follow the Leader

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by Adam Quinones on September 28 2009, 11:53 AM

Besides another round of record TSY issuances last week (which is what many are trading), weakness in stocks, some bond bullish econ data, and the approaching month end/quarter end were supportive of an added bid in bond markets last week. "Rate...
MBS OPEN: Slow, Stock-Driven Monday

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by Matthew Graham on September 28 2009, 8:24 AM

The term "slow" can be sometimes be misleading in this context. Although the absence of scheduled data combined with Yom Kippur's attendance toll are seen hurting volume, low volume doesn't always connote price stability. In fact, it's...

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