August 2009 - MBS Commentary

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"Bernanke on Housing's Role in Recovery; Mortgage Rates Battle Back"

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MBS Basics: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | The Gut Flop

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MBS CLOSE: August Goes Out On A High Note

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2009, 5:58 PM

With prices hovering nearly a half point over par in 4.5's, these are the best levels since 7/31/09 which closed a scant 5 ticks higher at 100-20. Before then, you'd have to go all the way back to July 10th to see higher prices. But what's...
MBS AFTERNOON: Rally Was Just Too Easy

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2009, 4:23 PM

Today's MBS rally was just too darn easy...speculative buying ahead of month index extension purchases added demand side support, then bid lists (BWIC:bids wanted in competition)benefited from looming prepayment reports. This is a factor of market...
MBS LUNCH: Perspective Amidst Reprices For The Better

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by Matthew Graham on August 31 2009, 1:38 PM

Any time charts start to take shapes similar to those seen above, reprices for the better are usually not far behind. One thing we continually mention is the necessity of a stock market correction in order to validate any meaningful gains in the bond...
MBS MORNING: Back to the Highs of the Day

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2009, 11:40 AM

Annnnnnd we're back to the highs of the day. The FN 4.5 is currently +0-07 at 100-13. From the 20 some odd mainstream rate sheets we've seen...mortgage rates are sliiightly lower today (rebates a little more robust). Just an FYI...we really hate...
MBS ALERT: Six Ticks Lower at Bad Time

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2009, 10:08 AM

The FN 4.5 has fallen 6 ticks from a bid of 100-13 to 100-07. Currently the rate sheet influential FN 4.5 is +0-01 on the day after being as high as +0-07 (7 ticks or 7/32nds). As many lenders are currently publishing rate sheets...this is bad timing...
MBS OPEN: More Erratic Action Expected

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by Adam Quinones on August 31 2009, 8:48 AM

The Week Ahead... Supportive time of month for MBS. Massive index extension means increased demand for longer life MBS (RATE SHEET INFLUENTIAL). Implied volatility generally lower ahead of NFP. Prepayment reinvestments. Regardless of supportive events...
MBS CLOSE: August Highs... Any Higher? (part 2)

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2009, 5:17 PM

Cat Stevens was so close... If he had but included the word "trader's," his uber-hit could be dusted off and added to the market theme song shelf. I suppose he could also have replace the word "world" with "market" and...
MBS AFTERNOON: Indecisive Marketplace Makes Us Nervous

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by Adam Quinones on August 28 2009, 3:35 PM

Although we would love nothing more than to tell you that the market will happily continue to trade in this narrow region...given the current "BETTER THAN EXPECTED", cost cutting, GDP growth that is anticipated the third and fourth quarters...
MBS LUNCH: Range-Trade Continues To Mystify

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by Matthew Graham on August 28 2009, 12:46 PM

I'm not exactly sure why, but even though we WRITE as if we expect price action like today's to occur, and even though it is getting to be less and less of a surprise, it somehow has not lost any of it's intrigue lo these many weeks. If you...
MBS MORNING: Not Panicking in Choppy Price Action

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by Adam Quinones on August 28 2009, 10:12 AM

Prior to the data release the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low of 99-24. Usually this would warrant an MBS ALERT...but we didnt feel it was necessary, plus we didnt want to ruin your morning :-D. Knee jerk reactions have been a common occurrence in the...
MBS OPEN: Near Highest Yields of the Week

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by Adam Quinones on August 28 2009, 8:31 AM

After ignoring logic all week, we hope the range doesnt breakdown as traders look to return "status quo" to the rates market. This could result yields pushing back to last Friday's closing marks near 3.56%. If so 100-00 would be a welcomed...
MBS CLOSE: The Triangle Show

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2009, 5:45 PM

Another uninspiring and underwhelming day where after the customary bit of "chop-chop" (as in choppy price movements?) gives way to a fairly predictable range trade through the close. Well, at least this stuff is predictable in hindsight right...
MBS AFTERNOON: Looking at Lacker's MBS Related Comments

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2009, 4:00 PM

From the influx of emails I received it appears many readers are reacting negatively to statements made by Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker this morning. It's important to put his statement in context. So let's discuss the banking system......
MBS ALERT: Lowest Prices Since Auction

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by Matthew Graham on August 27 2009, 1:55 PM

This is one of those MBS UPDATE's that was conceived as just that: a simple update on how the post-auction trading is going. Shortly before beginning to write, we took the short move down from 100-07 to 100-03. There are several ways to interpret...
MBS LUNCH: 7 year Auction 2.74 BTC, 3.092 High Yield, 61.2% Indirects

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by Adam Quinones on August 27 2009, 1:00 PM

The Treasury Department just auctioned $28 billion 7 year notes. This is the second consecutive auction at record size, July's being the first. In total this week's 2yr/5yr/7r auctions raised $90 billion for the Treasury. The bid to cover ratio...

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