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  • MBS CLOSE: Illustrating the Evolution of the Marketplace in Q2

    Comments (3)
    by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 5:35 PM
    Quarter 2 has come to an end.... Here are some charts to illustrate the evolution of the marketplace in 2Q 2009: LIBOR CURVE AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST.... I think I adequately laid out "WHAT NOW" in MBS AFTERNOON The Economic Calendar Tomorrow... PS...I would have like to included a chart illustrating the evolution of mortgage rates, but I am not a fan of any of the surveys as they are not borrower specific and often times create borrower misconceptions. FYI: Mortgage rates went up if you
    Read More

  • MBS AFTERNOON: Skittish Start to Q3

    Comments (3)
    by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 3:32 PM
    Hmmm...Treasury traders appear a bit skittish. Why? Look! Stocks ticked up off their lows and 10 yr traders panicked a bit.... The entire marketplace is in search of direction. Stocks have been range bound, essentially trendless capped by resistance, held together by support. The yield curve has flattened 40bps from a steepness of 280bps, as measured by 2s vs. 10s, since early June. Fundamentals are mixed as economic indicators tell a spotty story...some show signs of government funded growth while
    Read More

  • MBS LUNCH: Quarter Ends at 3pm for MBS

    Comments (18)
    by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 1:29 PM
    Lets check out how ranges are holding up... In stocks, strong resistance at 910 (62% retrace) is keeping losses in check for the S&P. So it looks like stocks are range bound right? If you cant answer this...look at the above and below charts. See it? Since it appears that the "stock lever" is providing leadership for the gyrations of the yield curve today...check out what else is range bound! Equities move higher, TSY yields move higher. Stocks go lower, TSY yiels go lower. Stocks sideways
    Read More

  • MBS MORNING: Taking Leadership from Stock Lever

    Comments (19)
    by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 11:06 AM
    Remember that statement we made last week about economic data being in focus this week? IT IS! After a "less weaker than expected" (yeh its like that) S&P headline on home prices ( READ STORY ), stocks moved higher and the yield curve steepened as the 10 yr TSY note yield climbed 8 basis points to 3.58%. Consequently, as we alerted "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons weakened a few ticks price-wise. See chart on MBS ALERT . Then at 10AM...Consumer Confidence was posted. Economists
    Read More

  • MBS ALERT: Lost 11 Ticks to Data Print

    Comments (33)
    by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 9:13 AM
    "Less weak" than expected data print + JV trading desk (light trading in the MBS market) = Dear Range, Moderate! Yours Truly, Rate Sheets
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Hey! Guess What!

    Comments (3)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2009, 8:33 AM
    Yesterday's Recap -Moderate gains - big picture remains mostly sideways before data today and even more important events on the horizon The AM So Far... - big picture remains mostly sideways before data today and even more important events on the horizon (deja vu?) - MBS between unchanged and 2 ticks worse -- still in the range. - Spreads tightened up this AM = bit difficult to rally unless tsy's cooperate - tons of data to come (see bullet points in yesterday's close) - If you floated
    Read More

  • MBS CLOSE: Holiday Week Work Ethic

    Comments (1)
    by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 5:39 PM
    Things continued much as they'd been earlier in the day with MBS flirting with 102-00 on the 5.0 and the 10yr doing a similar dance with 3.5. There was a lot of back and forth in a relatively tight range. One got the familiar sense that machines were making short term technical decisions as opposed to humans making strategic ones. All in all, the low volume and robotic directionality made it feel like this holiday week will only be three days long instead of four... Several reasons for this,
    Read More

  • MBS UPDATE: Choppy But Narrow. Improvements Holding.

    Comments (10)
    by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 3:41 PM
    Word on the street is that car chases and scandals are more interesting than today's trading action. Perhaps with it's lack of data, today is an implied holiday in order to create symmetry with the official holiday on Friday. Tomorrow is fairly data rich, and one of only 3 days with that particular resource this week. With quarter end still not behind us, still no prepay report or Class A settlement, still no <fill in the blank...>, we're happily tracking tsy's just like old
    Read More

  • MBS LUNCH: Recovered and Range Bound. Some Trivia Too

    Comments (15)
    by Adam Quinones on June 29 2009, 2:00 PM
    Yawn. After a lunch hour scare the FN 5.0 current coupon MBS has continued on its intraday trend of BANG BANG BANG into overhead resistnace at 102-00...again and again and again. BANG BANG BANG!!! The 10 yr ticked up to 3.50 right around the same time the FN 5.0 moved into the 101-25 range, no big deal there...just some profit taking and repositioning. Flows aren't too busy in MBS proxy benchmarks...well that of course depends on your coupon of choice...meaning TSY trade flows are a little busier
    Read More

  • MBS ALERT: Lows of The Day... But...

    Comments (16)
    by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 1:04 PM
    Any time we fall to the lows of the day, there is reprice risk... Now would be one of those times... The mitigating factor here is that tsy's have not had a similar sell-off. So a reasonable portion of the weakness, for the moment, is likely artificial and may pass . Take a look at 10yrs and stocks. Moral of the story: don't rush to lock medium to long term deals on this one, and even short term deals might want to wait until tsy's break 3.51 on the upside (IF they break it). More than
    Read More

  • MBS MORNING: Still Quiet. Skeptical of Rallies

    Comments (0)
    by Adam Quinones on June 29 2009, 11:12 AM
    Good Morning All.... Anyone else feeling a bit groggy this morning? No data this AM, abbreviated work week, quarter end activities...not much to snap me out of a sleep induced Monday morning fog. Well that's not entirely true...this holiday shortened week has several important data points scheduled..the major one being the Employment Situation Report to be released on Thursday. More on the week ahead . Last week the 10 yr TSY note rallied from an intraweek high of 3.79% ,all the way down to 3
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Tsy Rally Extends, MBS Catching A Little Love As Spreads Continue To Widen...

    Comments (30)
    by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 8:14 AM
    Friday's Recap - Tsy's and MBS rallied fairly well, but gave most of it back by day's end. - Bullish Consumer Sentiment - 10 yr touched the 3.4's before selling. 5.0 FNMA MBS were back near 102-00 - quarter end remains a big variable for flows, ostensibly pushing the tsy bid vs. MBS. The AM So Far... - 10yr Tsy pushed back into 3.4's. 3.4's pushed back. - MBS up, but again, Tsy's leading the charge into quarter end. - quarter end remains a big variable for flows, ostensibly
    Read More

  • HR 3044: To Impose 18-month Moratorium on HVCC (!!!!!!!!)

    Comments (63)
    by Adam Quinones on June 26 2009, 11:05 PM
    H.R. 3044 : To impose an 18-month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct ...from NAMB McLean, VA - June 26, 2009 - Last night, Representatives Childers (D-MS) and Miller (R-CA) introduced legislation calling for an 18 month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC). The National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) applauds the introduction of H.R. 3044. NAMB would like to thank Representative Childers (D-MS) and Representative Miller (R-CA) for their continued efforts and
    Read More

  • MBS CLOSE: Quarter End Approaches, Expected Results Ensue...

    Comments (7)
    by Matthew Graham on June 26 2009, 5:53 PM
    Even the top of the heap gurus that we're lucky enough to get color from lamented the volatility in MBS today, and it's seeming departure from any semblance of expected behavior. With respect to the current price levels in tsy's being on the edge of technical significance, but the time the end of the day rolled around, they hadn't gained enough to meet those tests. However, they'd gained enough to avoid a negative reading as well, meaning more "limbo." MBS gained fairly
    Read More

  • MBS AFTERNOON: Status Quo Heading Into 3pm Close

    Comments (12)
    by Adam Quinones on June 26 2009, 2:26 PM
    Bouncing back and forth between 101-30 and 101-27. Yawn.... WAIT WAIT WAIT...lets see if I can make your brain explode one more time before the weekend! June Barclays MBS index extensions have been released. The MBS index extended 0.17 years in June, therefore the index will open July with a duration in the neighborhood of 2.95 years. I will refrain from the explanation of this one because its Friday and the last thing you want to discuss is settlement dates, day counts, paydowns, and face values
    Read More
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