June 2009 - MBS Commentary

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MBS CLOSE: Illustrating the Evolution of the Marketplace in Q2

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 5:35 PM

Quarter 2 has come to an end.... Here are some charts to illustrate the evolution of the marketplace in 2Q 2009: LIBOR CURVE AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST.... I think I adequately laid out "WHAT NOW" in MBS AFTERNOON The Economic Calendar Tomorrow...
MBS AFTERNOON: Skittish Start to Q3

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 3:32 PM

Hmmm...Treasury traders appear a bit skittish. Why? Look! Stocks ticked up off their lows and 10 yr traders panicked a bit.... The entire marketplace is in search of direction. Stocks have been range bound, essentially trendless capped by resistance,...
MBS LUNCH: Quarter Ends at 3pm for MBS

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 1:29 PM

Lets check out how ranges are holding up... In stocks, strong resistance at 910 (62% retrace) is keeping losses in check for the S&P. So it looks like stocks are range bound right? If you cant answer this...look at the above and below charts. See...
MBS MORNING: Taking Leadership from Stock Lever

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 11:06 AM

Remember that statement we made last week about economic data being in focus this week? IT IS! After a "less weaker than expected" (yeh its like that) S&P headline on home prices ( READ STORY ), stocks moved higher and the yield curve steepened...
MBS ALERT: Lost 11 Ticks to Data Print

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by Adam Quinones on June 30 2009, 9:13 AM

"Less weak" than expected data print + JV trading desk (light trading in the MBS market) = Dear Range, Moderate! Yours Truly, Rate Sheets
MBS OPEN: Hey! Guess What!

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2009, 8:33 AM

Yesterday's Recap -Moderate gains - big picture remains mostly sideways before data today and even more important events on the horizon The AM So Far... - big picture remains mostly sideways before data today and even more important events on the...
MBS CLOSE: Holiday Week Work Ethic

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by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 5:39 PM

Things continued much as they'd been earlier in the day with MBS flirting with 102-00 on the 5.0 and the 10yr doing a similar dance with 3.5. There was a lot of back and forth in a relatively tight range. One got the familiar sense that machines were...
MBS UPDATE: Choppy But Narrow. Improvements Holding.

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by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 3:41 PM

Word on the street is that car chases and scandals are more interesting than today's trading action. Perhaps with it's lack of data, today is an implied holiday in order to create symmetry with the official holiday on Friday. Tomorrow is fairly...
MBS LUNCH: Recovered and Range Bound. Some Trivia Too

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by Adam Quinones on June 29 2009, 2:00 PM

Yawn. After a lunch hour scare the FN 5.0 current coupon MBS has continued on its intraday trend of BANG BANG BANG into overhead resistnace at 102-00...again and again and again. BANG BANG BANG!!! The 10 yr ticked up to 3.50 right around the same time...
MBS ALERT: Lows of The Day... But...

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by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 1:04 PM

Any time we fall to the lows of the day, there is reprice risk... Now would be one of those times... The mitigating factor here is that tsy's have not had a similar sell-off. So a reasonable portion of the weakness, for the moment, is likely artificial...
MBS MORNING: Still Quiet. Skeptical of Rallies

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by Adam Quinones on June 29 2009, 11:12 AM

Good Morning All.... Anyone else feeling a bit groggy this morning? No data this AM, abbreviated work week, quarter end activities...not much to snap me out of a sleep induced Monday morning fog. Well that's not entirely true...this holiday shortened...
MBS OPEN: Tsy Rally Extends, MBS Catching A Little Love As Spreads Continue To Widen...

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by Matthew Graham on June 29 2009, 8:14 AM

Friday's Recap - Tsy's and MBS rallied fairly well, but gave most of it back by day's end. - Bullish Consumer Sentiment - 10 yr touched the 3.4's before selling. 5.0 FNMA MBS were back near 102-00 - quarter end remains a big variable for...
HR 3044: To Impose 18-month Moratorium on HVCC (!!!!!!!!)

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by Adam Quinones on June 26 2009, 11:05 PM

H.R. 3044 : To impose an 18-month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct ...from NAMB McLean, VA - June 26, 2009 - Last night, Representatives Childers (D-MS) and Miller (R-CA) introduced legislation calling for an 18 month moratorium on the...
MBS CLOSE: Quarter End Approaches, Expected Results Ensue...

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2009, 5:53 PM

Even the top of the heap gurus that we're lucky enough to get color from lamented the volatility in MBS today, and it's seeming departure from any semblance of expected behavior. With respect to the current price levels in tsy's being on the...
MBS AFTERNOON: Status Quo Heading Into 3pm Close

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by Adam Quinones on June 26 2009, 2:26 PM

Bouncing back and forth between 101-30 and 101-27. Yawn.... WAIT WAIT WAIT...lets see if I can make your brain explode one more time before the weekend! June Barclays MBS index extensions have been released. The MBS index extended 0.17 years in June,...

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