May 2009 - MBS Commentary

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MBS Basics: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | The Gut Flop

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MBS CLOSE: One Of The Only Things That Could Have Lifted Our Spirits

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by Matthew Graham on May 29 2009, 4:54 PM

Wednesday crushed many hopes and dreams. Veritable tomes have already been written discussing the particulars of Black Wednesday. Fortunately for your Friday night time commitments, it doesn't take as long to discuss the positivity. A big reason is...
MBS UPDATE: Return Of A Fabled Creature?

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by Matthew Graham on May 29 2009, 3:58 PM

We noticed while perusing our arsenal of technical overlays today that a very rare technical indicator presented itself. As with many other technical analysis overlays, this one certainly muddies up the screen with lots of extra lines and such. But if...
MBS AFTERNOON: Facemelter Now Supported By Rallying TSY's

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by Matthew Graham on May 29 2009, 1:19 PM

Would you believe that, as far as traders are concerned, MBS have recovered ALL previous losses in terms of "relative value." We on the other hand are only getting about half the losses back in terms of MBS prices. But prices themselves don't...
MBS MORNING: Rich, Cheap, or Neutral

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by Adam Quinones on May 29 2009, 11:19 AM

Morning MBS price behavior has paced the behavior of comparable benchmark TSYs....basically its all about yield spreads and relative value....as in MBS coupons are either RICH, CHEAP, or NEUTRAL (compared to their benchmarks). Thus far "rate sheet...
MBS OPEN: Rich Yield Spreads Moderating Price Gains

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by Adam Quinones on May 29 2009, 8:33 AM

Preliminary GDP has been released: -5.7% vs. expected -5.5% (advance reading was -6.1%) Preliminary GDP Deflator: +2.8% vs. expected +2.9% (advance reading was +2.9%) PCE Price Index : -1.0% vs. expected -1.0% (advance reading was -1.0%) Consumer Spending...
MND SPECIAL REPORT ON MBS "BLACK WEDNESDAY": PART III

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by Bill Berliner on May 28 2009, 6:25 PM

MND Special Report on MBS "Black Wednesday" Part I MND Special Report on MBS "Black Wednesday" Part II The Treasury market has been in absolute disarray this week, as evidenced by the wild bouncing around on Thursday. The yield on...
MBS CLOSE: Heavy Volume and Bargain Buying

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by Adam Quinones on May 28 2009, 5:19 PM

The Treasury market saw above average volume across the curve (all maturities) as investors took an opportunity to do some bargain buying (cheap dollar prices). Shorter maturities saw better buying most of the day while 7yr and 10 yr flows favored sellers...
MBS AFTERNOON: MBS Poking Its Head Out... More Cautiously This Time...

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2009, 3:16 PM

We're gaining some resolve alongside treasuries as we enter the post-close hours in bond markets. The gains started an hour before the market close at 3pm however. This is not much to write home about, but it sure beats where we were. Perhaps most...
MBS ALERT: MORE MORTGAGE WEAKNESS

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by Adam Quinones on May 28 2009, 1:22 PM

Heading into the auction the new FN 4.5 "current coupon" began agressively testing the previously pointed out 99-10 support level. After the Treasury released the results of the $26bn 7yr note auction "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons...
MND SPECIAL REPORT ON MBS "BLACK WEDNESDAY": PART II

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by Adam Quinones on May 28 2009, 11:20 AM

"BLACK WEDNESDAY". A day when "rate sheet influential" MBS were sold by accounts of all types. Banks, Servicers, Pension Funds, Money Managers, and Hedge Funds...Real Money and Levered Accounts alike. After all was said and done, over...
MBS UPDATE: Just Kidding?

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2009, 9:53 AM

The MBS Gods giveth and the MBS Gods taketh away...
MBS UPDATE: Anticlimactic What?! It's A Rally!

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2009, 9:18 AM

Now entering 2nd hour of confirmation for 99-10 as a bottom for 4.5's. Even if good 'ol MBS can't do anything more for you today, we've already burnt up a third of yesterday's losses. Rally on Garth!
MBS OPEN: Anticlimactic Morning After

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by Matthew Graham on May 28 2009, 8:21 AM

Check out current MBS prices and day over day changes HERE . A mere change of 0-2 ticks seems almost out-of-place after yesterday's drama, but is likely a welcome respite. So far this AM, prices have stalled out right at the potential support level...
MND Special Report on MBS "Black Wednesday:" Among The Worst Day Of Losses.... Ever....

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by Matthew Graham on May 27 2009, 6:31 PM

Damage Report 5/27/09 The dust is finally settling and ashes finally floating away, at least for today. We are left with one of the most grotesque images to come out of the MBS marketplace in years: the visual representation of the deservedly named "Black...
MBS UPDATE: How Low Can You Go?

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by Matthew Graham on May 27 2009, 3:18 PM

There's not much to say... Just as there's not much to say whilst watching a catastrophic explosion. There is just awe, fear, and panic among other things. Beyond what's already been said, the most accurate accounts of the explosion, it's...

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