April 2009 - MBS Commentary

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MBS CLOSE: Fed Purchases $23.142bn Agency MBS

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2009, 4:03 PM

In the 5 trading sessions between April 23 and April 29, 2009, THE FED PURCHASED $59.565 bn AGENCY MBS and THE FED SOLD $36.423 bn AGENCY MBS.... FOR A NET OF: $23.142 bn AGENCY MBS PURCHASES . Here's a screen shot of my excel worksheet: The chart...
MBS UPDATE: Still In The Low Range

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by Matthew Graham on April 30 2009, 1:32 PM

4.0's are having a hard time breaking through PAR today and are currently at 99-29 which is 7 ticks off on the day. We are off the 11AM lows (another bounce off 99-23? How long ago did we identify that line?). Treasuries too have been very choppy...
MBS LUNCH: Lenders Hanging In There....

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2009, 1:22 PM

Production MBS coupons have moved around a 17 tick range so far today. The price action has been lead by the indecisive behavior of the 10 yr Treasury note, which hit an intraday yield high of 3.16% at 11:05 am. At that time, the FN 4.0 moved to its intraday...
MBS ALERT: CHOPPINESS RAISES ALERT LEVEL

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2009, 11:05 AM

BONDS ARE TRADING OFF OF STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT, WHICH IS WARM AND FUZZY ......AS THE DOW HIT AN INTRADAY HIGH OF 8307.51, THE UST10 YR YIELD MOVED UP TO 3.16% AND "RATE SHEET INFLUENTIAL" MBS PRICES FELL QUICKLY.... MBS TRADING VOLUME IS SLOW...
MBS UPDATE: Hidden Agendas Distort Perceptions

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2009, 10:00 AM

The US 10yr Treasury is bouncing between 3.14% and 3.10% which is causing "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons to go green then red then green then red again.This is not a function of a change in fixed income market sentiment , instead it is...
MBS OPEN: Still Focusing on Light at End of Tunnel

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by Adam Quinones on April 30 2009, 8:31 AM

Good Morning In overnight trading, global investors found new reason to speculate that an economic bottom is nearing following the FOMC's statement that " the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower "....in Asia the NIKKEI moved...
MBS CLOSE: Reactions to the FOMC Statement

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by Adam Quinones on April 29 2009, 6:50 PM

From the FOMC Press Release: "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of contraction appears to be somewhat slower . Household spending has shown...
MBS UPDATE: Utter Disaster Averted, Spreads Significantly Tighter

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2009, 3:34 PM

Those who locked on the reprice alert are in good shape as most of our resources are indicating reprices for the worse. And rather than have to tell you that the sell-off was temporary and artificial, we have indeed stayed in the red since FOMC. Thankfully...
MBS ALERT: Freefall Part 2

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2009, 2:24 PM

The sell-off following the FOMC announcement is continuing but as choppy trades continue hitting at a rapid pace, we're off the worst levels of selling with 4.0's down 7 ticks to 100-03. It seems at this point, more of a certainty that the sell...
MBS ALERT: Freefall

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2009, 2:17 PM

We'll let you know if this turns around, but in 1 minute since statement, we're in a freefall. As of current numbers, reprices for the worse will be on the way to the tune of over half a point. It's not uncommon however for big moves like...
MBS BREAKING NEWS: 7 Yr Auction Goes Off With Decent Results, 2.28 BTC and 32% Indirect

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2009, 1:08 PM

Treasury yields spiked initially on the auction, but then they read my previous blog and decided to start buying again. 10 minutes into the news, we're a few ticks better off than before. The 2.28 BTC was pretty good but not amazing. 32% indirect...
MBS MID-DAY: Hesitant and Range-Bound Pre-FOMC

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by Matthew Graham on April 29 2009, 12:34 PM

In new released earlier today the GDP was reported at a lower than expected 6.1% decline. Consensus estimates called for a 5% decline. Although worse than expected, this is the advance reading and not given as much credence as revisions. Inflation components...
MBS UPDATE: Hesitant Ahead of FOMC Statement

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by Adam Quinones on April 29 2009, 10:14 AM

Quick Update while we write juicy content.... Since 5pm "Going Out" Marks... FN30 ________________________________ FN 4.0 -------->>>> + 0-02 to 100-12 from 100-10 FN 4.5 -------->>>> +0-00 to 102-01 from 102-01 FN 5...
MBS OPEN: Flat...Waiting on GDP Data

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by Adam Quinones on April 29 2009, 8:23 AM

Since 5 pm "Going Out" Marks... FN30 ________________________________ FN 4.0 -------->>>> + 0-00 to 100-10 from 100-10 FN 4.5 -------->>>> +0-00 to 102-01 from 102-01 FN 5.0 -------->>>> +0-01 to 103-02 from...
MBS CLOSE: MBS Fight Off A Treasury Sell Off And End Marginally Worse

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by Matthew Graham on April 28 2009, 4:26 PM

Not a good day for fixed income as treasuries lost massively in the long end. The 10yr was off 26 ticks bringing the yield to 3.01%. The 30yr was off a full 2 points (64 ticks) bringing the yield to 3.95%. At any other time in MBS history, this would...

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