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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.6%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (44.5%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.9%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program





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  • Friday 11/28 ...Late Day Rally

    Comments (1)
    by Victor Burek on November 28 2008, 12:40 PM
    our 5.0 current coupon is experiencing a late day rally for a change. Currently at 100-25+ which is the highs of the day and well above the lows of 100-10.
    Read More

  • Mid Day FN 5.0 unchanged at 100-18. More charts....

    Comments (0)
    by Adam Quinones on November 28 2008, 11:04 AM
    As expected, prices of the 5.0 FN MBS have been jumpy in this holiday hungover trading session. Currently the benchmark 5.0 is bid at 100-18. 6/32 ticks above the morning post price level. Word on the street is a few investors have some aggressive rate sheets but in general pricing strategies could be described as apathetic. Top graph is intraday 5.0. Bottom graph is FN 5.0 price vs. the 5 year US Treasury price. If you are wondering why I have posted the spread graph it is because when determining
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Falling at the open

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on November 28 2008, 9:14 AM
    An hour in now, and MBS are down 6 ticks to 100-12. If you have overnight price protection and were waiting to see where today came out, now is a good time to lock. But expect continued volatility ahead.
    Read More

  • Friday 11/28

    Comments (0)
    by Victor Burek on November 28 2008, 7:58 AM
    5.0's selling some, currently 100-12+.
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Slow Day. Treasuries At Lows. MBS Unchanged

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on November 28 2008, 8:16 AM
    5.0's are at 100-21. Current coupons are bid a bit better than "off the runs" (jan and feb deliveries). New scheduled data today, plus the fact that the JV teams are calling the shots mean extra potential for volatility today, but a near certainty of "ZZZzzz... ZZZzzz..." Lenders likely won't price in many gains today unless the volume stays steady (and doesn't drop off. Stay tuned. We'll let you know if we're seeing any abrupt changes.
    Read More

  • Seeing some Selling...

    Comments (0)
    by Adam Quinones on November 26 2008, 1:09 PM
    The FN 5.0 has sold back to 100-20 after reaching a high of 100-28+. If you have an agressively priced investor and are looking to lock by days end now may be the time to do so
    Read More

  • Pretty Chart....FN 5.0 +15 at 100-27

    Comments (2)
    by Adam Quinones on November 26 2008, 12:00 PM
    The MBS market is still a few ticks off yesterdays 3pm levels (see chart), nonetheless the current bid should be viewed as an acceptable recovery FN 5.0: +15/32 at 100-27 FN 5.5: +13/32 at 101-25 Chart is from 10 min ago...5.0 is 2 ticks higher from when I pulled chart. Red is reprice zone for more aggressive lenders. Yellow is mid morning rate sheet distributions. Green is reprice zone for early morning price setters.
    Read More

  • Quick update: FN 5.0 +15 at 100-27

    Comments (0)
    by Adam Quinones on November 26 2008, 10:09 AM
    FN 5.0 is trading +15/32 at 100-27. This is 1/32 below 3pm trading levels of 100-28 (right before the reprices for the worse started to hit) FN 5.5 is trading +14/32 at 101-26. This is just 1/32 below 3pm levels of 101-28 More detailed post to follow....
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Right Where We Left Off

    Comments (1)
    by Matthew Graham on November 26 2008, 8:29 AM
    MBS Are Opening relatively unchanged from yesterday's levels. Tons of scheduled data on the way followed by an early close. More to follow as things change...
    Read More

  • MBS CLOSE: Yet Another Day Of Selling After The Close

    Comments (11)
    by Matthew Graham on November 25 2008, 4:17 PM
    5.0's are at 100-15 5.5's are at 101-17 Lenders that have not yet repriced for the worse may now be considering it.
    Read More

  • Originator Selling: +2-07 at 100-23

    Comments (2)
    by Adam Quinones on November 25 2008, 3:22 PM
    At the time of the last post the FN 5.0 was +2-15 at 100-30, since then the slow uptick trend has lost steam as originators sell to hedge their future rate commitments. The FN 5.0 is currently trading +2-07 at 100-23...7 ticks below the time of the last update. Aggressively priced lenders will be pondering a negative reprice if this continues...
    Read More

  • FN 5.0 Awarded Current Coupon Title Belt: +2-15 at 100-30

    Comments (3)
    by Adam Quinones on November 25 2008, 2:46 PM
    The current coupon we have become so accustomed to watching has been retired (for now at least). The NEW current coupon title belt has been awarded to the 5.0% FN coupon. Congrats to all....it has been a fine day in mortgage world so far. Last night the FN 5.0 traded at 98-15 into the close. At 9:08 this morning the 5.0 reached a price of 101-08....a price jump of 89/32 or 278 bps. Since that intraday high was reached, the 5.0 sold off to 100-11 and then begun a slow upward tick to the current price
    Read More

  • MBS MORNING: Nominal Retracement

    Comments (9)
    by Matthew Graham on November 25 2008, 10:16 AM
    Current MBS Price and Day Over Day Change: FN 5.5 30YR MBS = 101-21 .... +1-06 (36 ticks) This is off quite a bit from the highs of the morning which were over 102, but is a very nominal 38% retracement. Lenders that priced between 9:00 and 9:30 might reprice for the worse if they priced in gains aggressively, but that is unlikely. We will either encounter overhead resistance around the 100-22 to 100-26 level and come back down, in which case, locking makes sense, or we may break through and continue
    Read More

  • MBS MORNING: Fat Tuesday

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on November 25 2008, 8:35 AM
    It has been a skinny time for MBS. Day after day we were sure the government's explicit statements regarding MBS would be manifest themselves in grand fashion. We were sure it would happen! Then we HOPED it would happen. Then doubt set in. But today, the certainty with which we first perceived this outcome is vindicated. Current MBS Price and Day Over Day Change: FN 5.5 30YR MBS = 102-10 .... +1-27 (59 ticks) The Fed announced not one, but two programs--either one of which would have a salubrious
    Read More

  • MBS OPEN: Breaking News: (the good kind)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on November 25 2008, 8:11 AM
    Current MBS Price and Day Over Day Change: FN 5.5 30YR MBS = 101-02 .... +0-19 (19 ticks) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Government just announced $500 billion direct injection into MBS market through asset managers. It's a good thing. It's TARPtastic, yet not the tarp. Stay tuned for a full story, but rest assured, this will be a good morning for MBS.
    Read More
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