October 2008 - MBS Commentary

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See the News we're Reading: AROUND THE WEB

10/31 Friday ... Bernanke... shorthand notes from live audio.

Comments (0)

by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 2:02 PM

Yes, I know full versions of this are available, but these were my shorthand notes as I listened with my court-reporter stenograph. forgive typing errors please. - Fannie and Freddie are the only ways to securitize mortgages - Private Label Securitization

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Interesting Graph (or boring) on changes in Mortgage Rates during election cycles

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 12:47 PM

keep in mind, I am not SUGGESTING ANYTHING WHATSOEVER in posting this. It's just because SO many people have either mentioned it in passing or asked about it. My personal opion is that the macroeconomic backdrop far outweighs any republican versus

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10/31 Friday ... Breaking News From JP

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 12:41 PM

JP Morgan chase to dramatically expand their loan modification and loss mitigation efforts. rumors include temporary freeze on foreclosures. - owner occupied properties - reasonably current payment histories In a nutshell, the buzz is that they are opening

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Friday 10/31 ... below the lows now

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 11:44 AM

additional reprice risk, but still 5 ticks up on the day. If you got a good bump this morning and no reprice yet, short termers should consider cashing in.

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Friday 10/31 ... More Reprice Risk Materializing

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 11:20 AM

We're now entering a zone where lenders that priced in this AM's gains may consider a reprice for the worse. If you haven't gotten rates yet, don't worry, but if you did, and you got a majority of the nearly half point YSP improvement

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Friday 10/31 ... Some Selling

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by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 11:08 AM

6.0's are off their highs of 100-13 now down to 100-05 plus. Few, if any lenders will reprice on this owing to the fact that we closed at 99-26 last night. If you're lenders rates were over half a point better from last night, you might see a

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Friday 10/31 .... A Halloween Story

Comments (1)

by Matthew Graham on October 31 2008, 8:01 AM

Don't want the story? Skip to the bottom... --------------- There are urban legends about one of those cliche old "shut-in's." This particular old hag used to be beautiful and popular and successful once upon a time. But she's degenerated

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Thursday 10/30 ... Falling again

Comments (0)

by Matthew Graham on October 30 2008, 3:50 PM

Our 6.0s are holding up fine at 99-24, but the 5.5's just feel to the lowest level of the day. More aggressive lenders may reprice for the worse.

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Thursday 10/30 ... Some Buying

Comments (0)

by Matthew Graham on October 30 2008, 1:49 PM

Over the last few minutes some buyers have stepped in and we are improving some. Currently the 6.0 is at the high of the day at 99-26+, slightly up on the day and the 5.5 is at 97-19 just slightly down. Reprice for the worse is diminishing.

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Thursday 10/30 ... Selling in the Lower Stack

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2008, 12:44 PM

although 6.0's are holding relatively unchanged, we have seen selling pick up in 5.5's recently. More aggressively priced lenders may view this as cause for a reprice. And if they do so, your entire rate spectrum could be affected even though

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Thursday 10/30 ... Boring and Sideways

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by Matthew Graham on October 30 2008, 11:01 AM

We are seeing some slight positive momentum in 6.0's which are nearly even on the day and a couple ticks above key support level from mid October's bottom of 99-23. It appears that we are traveling with the stock lever. As stocks climb, we fall

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Thursday 10/30 ... Data and the Open

Comments (1)

by Matthew Graham on October 30 2008, 8:30 AM

479k Jobless Claims from a revised 479k. No net change... GDP down .3% not as bad as expectations of -.6% PCE Price Index up 2.9% YoY Significant tightening versus tsy's But the better than expected GDP plus the higher than expected PCE have rates

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Wednesday 10/29 ... Some Thoughts At The End Of Fed Day

Comments (1)

by Matthew Graham on October 29 2008, 10:22 PM

A rare departure from the behind the curtain to share some personal thoughts on Fed Day. Keep in mind that the blog is written by a human... Me. I rarely include opinion, so the disclaimer here is that this has an uncommonly high level of opinion and

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Wednesday 10/29 ... The bottom's in...

Comments (0)

by Matthew Graham on October 29 2008, 4:03 PM

97-20 (ish) is your current bottom in MBS. We've bounced there 3 times in the last month, and again today, with certainty and conviction. MBS are currently back up to 97-24+. If you've gotten reprices for the worse already today, everyone is invited

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Wednesday 10/29 ... Still flirting with technical floor...

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by Matthew Graham on October 29 2008, 3:26 PM

Stocks are ticking up and exerting slight pressure on MBS, in addition to slightly wider spreads. 5.5's STILL holding the 97-21 level, with the current bid at 97-20. It would be very important for us to hold at or above these levels at the close.

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