September 2008 - MBS Commentary

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Tuesday 9/30 ... Update on developing breaking SEC news

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 3:23 PM

CNBC is reporting that the SEC may give guidance on the fair-value accounting for MBS (the bad stuff), as early as today. 5.5's down a full point to 99-18. You'll be lucky to see 6.0 at PAR if Prices hold here through the morning. (float clubbers...
Tuesday 9/30 ... Graph of the pain... (and a sneak attack from the ninja)

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 3:02 PM

Here's a 2 day intraday chart for you on the FNMA 5.5's. He's wiley today folks, that MBS Ninja. That's what we need during market upheaval--a good read on causes and implications from a wall-street level. He reports we're seeing a...
Tuesday 9/30 ... Catastrophically Bad Now

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 2:57 PM

down 26 ticks to 99-23. As of 5 minutes ago we are below the Purgatory floor for the first time in 3.5 weeks. Granted, we have until "going out" levels to make it back, but it looks like the official close will see us below these levels ( 3...
Tuesday 9/30 ... Stocks and T Bills keep the Pressure on MBS

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 1:33 PM

Dow's up over 366 on the psychology pendulum effect. In addition, markets are reassured about the bailout taking shape on breaking news that the SEC will offer guidance on one of the looming unanswered questions: how to value bad assets. This guidance...
Tuesday 9/30 ... At the lows of the day again...

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 11:43 AM

Dow up 268. MBS 5.5's down 11+ ticks at 100-05+ Reprice risk picking back up here. Dramatically tighter to T's. (10 year down 30 ticks)
Tuesday 9/30 ... Turning Around?

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 10:32 AM

The severity and in some cases, existence, of impending reprices is waning as the MBS sell off has reversed course and leveled off around 100-08+ which is 8+ ticks down on the day. Stay tuned.
Tuesday 9/30 ... Continuing Weakness (firm reprice alert)

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 10:22 AM

MBS may be continuing to tighten v. treasuries but that isn't stopping 5.5's from being down over .375 so far today. Any lender that released prices more than 20 minutes ago will almost certainly reprice for the worse unless we turn right around...
Tuesday 9/30 ... Down some more...

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 10:10 AM

5.5's now down 10 100-10 as steam picks up for stocks and consumer confidence stays firm. The sell bias is favoring MBS now and we have tightened further to swaps and have even turned a corner and begun tightening to everyone's favorite dinner...
Tuesday 9/30 ... In Case You Really DID Care About That News (and the Ninja Strikes)

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 9:55 AM

Scheduled Data: Chicago PMI at 56.7, down slightly from last month, but within consensus range NAPM index down an additional 1.3% to 404.0. Eighth Contraction in last nine months Case Shiller: 20 city index down .88% from June to July. This is good for...
Tuesday 9/30 ... More News That No One Cares About

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 9:46 AM

Scheduled data is in for the day, and what kind of September would it be if anyone actually cared! The severity of the sell-off in stocks yesterday is creating some "pendulum" buying this AM with the Dow out of the gate over 200 and the S&P...
Tuesday 9/30 ... MBS Open in Decent Territory, Widening Decelerating

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by Matthew Graham on September 30 2008, 8:14 AM

Remember our MBS Purgatory Graph? The space between the green lines represents a range created by the highest high before the GSE bailout (low line) and the lowest low after the GSE Bailout (upper line). When it looked as if the world was going to explode...
Thank You Steve Liesman

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2008, 4:50 PM

There are a few people out there who are "saying what needs to be said." Most students of the MBS market realize the necessity of the bailout. Most anyone else is predisposed to see it as an unjust attack on taxpayers. Those "naysayers"...
Monday 9/29 ... Hanging In The Lows

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2008, 3:56 PM

Treasuries have held strong, but MBS have not. We're at 100-16 now which is close to our recent lows. Lenders that have not yet repriced for the worse may now be considering it.
Monday 9/29 ... MBS market Convulsing

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2008, 2:18 PM

Though we will probably make it out of the woods today, the extent to which the market is convulsing may have some lenders spooked enough to hedge their sheets a bit. This does not mean we won't get that right back by the end of the day, but just...
Monday 9/29 Bailout Update

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by Matthew Graham on September 29 2008, 2:09 PM

Revote being done right now. A bit of "limbo" priced into stocks and MBS currently. Pundits don't expect a change in the result. Stay tuned.

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