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  • Friday 8/29 ... This is what we're talking about...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 6:13 PM
    Very simple.... See above 2 day chart on 6.0's... Notice the almost unbreakable line established yesterday at 100-28. Then notice the almost unbreakable line today at 100-28. Then consider the fact that we closed today at 100-28+, and the case continues to be built for higher highs and higher lows. All in all, a perfect day for our long term outlook on MBS. We knew we had to take a down day sometime soon. We knew today woudl probably be the day. It was. And rather than getting pounded, we were simply
    Read More

  • Friday 8/29 ... MBS Gods want you to stay humble going into the weekend

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 5:25 PM
    sold off to 100-27 recently. This is teetering on the edge of yesterday's support levels. Don't pay it too much attention though as we're low volume, early close, and at the end of the day. It is possible that a lender or two may ding ya for an eighth though if they want to protect against the risk of prices holding this level on Monday. More to follow as it becomes important...
    Read More

  • Friday 8/29 - 101-01

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 2:56 PM
    That's about all there is to say... The 100-28 support level holding firm... "other" MBS sites coming out with lock requests... Historically supportive month end, plus wide spreads, plus absent headline risk, plus 100pts down in dow... My question to you is how could you NOT be floating right now? I've received some feedback over the past 30 days saying, "it seems like you always advise floating... etc..." Hmmm... Mid July levels in the mod to low 99's and current levels almost 2 points YSP better
    Read More

  • Friday 8/29 ... We like what we're seeing

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 1:39 PM
    We're no zealots when it comes to technical analysis, but it has it's place, especially when in come to "trend." Without even running any technical studies would could see yesterday that one the price level of 100-28 was crested it established a fairly predictible "floor" The fact that our price curve was dropping aggressively this morning, but took an unmistakeable bounce off the 100-28 level at the very least is a cautiously optimistic sign. Let's wait and see if it holds. (don't forget everyone
    Read More

  • Friday 8/29 ... Down enough to consider locking if you're in short term

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 1:17 PM
    We're at 100-28 on the 6.0, about a quarter of a point difference from yesterday's highs. But many agreed that lenders were "hedgin" all the recent gains and they had about a quarter "coming to us" anyway once the curve stabilized. So there's no certainty regarding this morning's rates, but with a precipitous decline in price action this AM, plus the factors discussed yesterday about why we'd probably have a down day, it's safer to assume we'll lose a little YSP. Again, our goal today will be to
    Read More

  • Friday 8/29 ... All about income and PCE...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 29 2008, 12:58 PM
    Income fell by .7% yet spending managed to increase .2% The Core PCE deflator rose .3%, which is higher than we wanted to see from an inflation-hawk standpoint, but will hopefully be subject to the same discounting that CPI and PPI saw earlier this month. So far, we're down two ticks day over day. Furthermore, we started the day up at 101-07 and are now down to 100-30. Expect this morning's rates to come out worse than yesterday's morning, but not necessarily worse than yesterday afternoon. so for
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/28 - Everyone Likes Graphs

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 9:03 PM
    Proud Warriors! Hear Me! Long have we been adrift together on uncertain seas. Many perilous struggles have we endured. We've lost many brothers and sisters to the madness that beckoned them to "lock" the chains of their own undoing. But now! Now virtuous brothers and sisters, the gates of Elysium are thrown open for you proud few! You chosen few who kept a candle of faith burning. Onward MBS soldiers! For I see the very sloping knolls of Elysium! It looks a little something like this: Ok, out of
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/28 - Now some good news...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:40 PM
    Looks like "mikey likes it." 6.0 MBS up to 101-01 which is 2 ticks in the black for the day. Float Club!
    Read More

  • No Panic Yet (Thursday 8/28)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:09 PM
    We're not falling any further at the moment. holding at 100-29. No reprice risk currently, but stay closely tuned.
    Read More

  • ALERT - Treasury Auction Causing Market Movement

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 5:07 PM
    We've peeled off 3 ticks rather quickly bringing us to 100-27.
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/29 - 6.0 at 100-29

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 3:33 PM
    MBS certainly would like to be rising today despite the GDP data, but with stocks now up 191.42 in the dow, the pressure is on bonds. Again, treasuries are "taking the bullet" for MBS as the 10 year is still down 10 ticks, 5 year down 8 ticks while MBS down a mere 2 ticks. I'm inclined to suggest it's a very good sign for MBS to be holding at 2 ticks down despite the GDP data + the 200 point rally in the dow. Regardless, unless we take a sharp downturn, you are still quite safe to float. If we do
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/28 ... Stock strength may pressure bonds

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 2:40 PM
    With the dow up 100 points so far, we are seeing 2-3 ticks of pressure on MBS. The 6.0 is currently still fantastic at 100-29. If Stocks continue a rally, we might see some more pressure. Whatever the case, MBS are certainly more popular than laggard treasuries today down 8-10 ticks. Stay tuned...
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/28 - Keep the faith....

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 1:29 PM
    Actually positive 1 tick on the day at 101-00
    Read More

  • Thursday 8/28 - GDP story continued...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 12:37 PM
    Here are those previously alluded-to mitigating factors: 1. Deriving consensus estimates for Q2 GDP was a bit of a shot in the dark due to unknown impact of stimulus checks 2. Factoring in stimulus plus a strong export situation, we knew this would be the strongest GDP reading in quite a while 3. Remember that this is the ADVANCE reading on growth, the final reading won't be out until 9/26, AND on average, the final is revised downward by half a point. 4. Analyst expect near zero growth in Q3 and
    Read More

  • GDP CRUSHES CONSENSUS BUT CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS AT 4 YR HIGH

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on August 28 2008, 12:34 PM
    more to follow... MBS Probably won't be too happy, but there are mitigating factors as well, so don't panic. whatever the case, we'll keep you posted up to the minute
    Read More
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