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  • Monday 06/30/08..... Sideways into the close

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 8:31 PM
    We haven't lost any more ground. 6.0's held up 2 ticks on the day and look to be riding that sideways wave to the close.
    Read More

  • Graph to accompany the reprice warnin

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 7:33 PM
    The 100-28 line was at the bottom of the tolerance range for reprices today, but falling below it took us back to the lows from early this morning. Still, lenders that priced conservatively may not reprice, and some already have. Still, stocks are setting the tone, but be aware that spreads between treasuries and MBS are no longer holding as steady as previously today. The 5 year is not longer a good indicator.
    Read More

  • reprices for worse are likely

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 7:07 PM
    .125 at most if you have not already seen it. You might be tempted to float if you are thinking along the same lines as the analysts looking for the dow to continue to slide after today.
    Read More

  • A bit more weakness...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 4:40 PM
    The 6.0 is at 100-29, probably not cause for concern, although a handful of lenders that priced more aggressively or "on the come," may sneak in a .125 for the worse, but with the Dow stepping back a bit in recent minutes, it's not extremely likely. Still it will be important to keep an eye out for stocks. If they move towards 100 pts up in the dow and similarly, if the 5 yr note gets to 3.38, it could be a forward warning of MBS weakening.
    Read More

  • Stocks add to gains, but MBS not yet convinced...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 3:47 PM
    It looks like it will take more than a 60 point rise in the DJIA to cause enough selling in MBS to worry about. As the index has risen, we have some selling in bonds, but only a tick or two. MBS 6.0's are still holding the 101-00 level. Still, lenders are unwilling to share the same portion of that spread with us as they normally do. So we will wait until they do or until we're forced off the table by falling prices. Keep on keeping an eye on the five year treasury for preliminary indication of a
    Read More

  • Monday 6/30/08 ....... Still Steady, Chicago PMI mixed

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 2:01 PM
    The Numbers: 6.0% FNMA is up 4 / 32nds at 100-30 5.5% FNMA is up 7/32nds at 98-21 The News: Chicago PMI at 49.6 Consensus was for 48.0 5th straight month under 50.0 (under 50 = contracting business conditions) Cost of goods sold paradoxically decreases 2 pts to 85.5, speaks to inflation Citi Bonus restructuring CitiGroup, hammered by bad press last week, announced it would restructure management bonuses The move ostensibly should increase performance, but has not done anything for their stock price
    Read More

  • Monday 6/30/08 .... MBS Holds Steady Over Weekend

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 1:19 PM
    At A Glance: MBS BETTER 4 ticks over official close, 0 ticks DoD, Slight Stronger vs. UST's Stocks hit "bear" qualifications last week. Futures bumpy but DJIA opens near even NY PMI (not chicago), weaker at 45.4, but 6 mo. outlook rises to 63.8 Weekly outlook slightly improved for MBS QUICK LOCK GUIDE: Floating until we see Friday's gains priced in. Chicago PMI at 9:45. Vigilance: High ... Chicago PMI is last scheduled data of day. After that, we watch stocks and headlines... abbreviations guide
    Read More

  • MBS RECAP 6-23 through 6-07

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 28 2008, 1:21 AM
    What a day today: Which combined with yesterday to make it quite a two day period: Which combined with the rest of the week to make this quite a week (end of day prices starting monday the 23rd): Again, many indicators were stacked against MBS today, and indeed this week. As a result, MBS certainly did have a mostly bad week versus treasuries, but as far as raw price, we gained the better part of a quarter of a point! With all the volatility in the markets, many lenders have not yet coughed up all
    Read More

  • Friday 6/27/08 .... plateauing but still great

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 6:23 PM
    I know this morning was "graph-less" so hopefully this late breakfast will satisfy your hunger: As you can see, it's been a good day to say the least. Our Ninja reports MBS have been finding lots of buyers including hedge funds, overseas, servicers, and insurance funds, due to the spreads becoming wide enough, and looking to go wider still this morning combined with falling rates, that it prompted these buyers to opt for MBS in lieu of UST's. Evidence for this is stark with the difference in price
    Read More

  • Watch Out! (in a good way)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 5:24 PM
    Here we go again! Can you feel it now? Are we headed back down to 5.5 PAR? Well, not today of course, but stocks, they are a slidin' and that, in conjunction with tame inflation (which we got), was one of our two prerequisites for MBS to defy the market buzz and move higher. So higher we go with 6.0's up a massive (compared to this morning) 13/32nds! That's 100-26! Keep in mind, this just jumped up from 7/32nds in 5 minutes, so it may moderate, but so far, no signs of a quick reversal. Reprices are
    Read More

  • Friday 6/27/08 ..... still in the game...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 4:51 PM
    you might even see an eighth coming down the pike if we keep this up.
    Read More

  • Friday 6/27/08 ....... Can it Be?

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 2:36 PM
    (due to responses to your feedback, let's try a new caption "at a glance." The goal will be to condense all the relevant data into this top section so if you are pressed for time or are one of those 3 people that don't want to wade through the prose, you can get what you need with a shorter read. Additionally, in order to get you the data faster, we'll post this section as soon as it's written and then follow with the meaty content shortly thereafter. So how about a quick trial run?) At A Glance
    Read More

  • Friday 6/27/08 ....... A Quiet, Flat Open for MBS.

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 1:25 PM
    Much remains to be seen this morning and the standard full analysis will follow after more data is released and stocks have a chance to show their hand. Unless it is a tough day for stocks, it could be a tough day for MBS. Already this morning spreads have widened again with treasuries outperforming by about 7/32nds. Nonetheless, MBS are level day over day owing to a dead quiet session overnight. As discussed, the cards are stacked against MBS today, so unless we get some major weakness from stocks
    Read More

  • Falling out.... (so sad....)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 26 2008, 7:37 PM
    Looks like we're falling out of the trend channel just slightly. And with that, our hopes of reprices for the better today are diminishing. Considering the recent and decent run of good luck, locking feels like it should be heavily considered tonight, yet the price curve does not indicate the potential of a reprice for the worse tonight. And although the street is not confident in MBS performance, remember that street sentiment relates almost exclusively to spread whereas we are much more concerned
    Read More

  • Yes, We've held steady.

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on June 26 2008, 6:45 PM
    As we discussed, the period following the last post would be important to gauging the probability of the trend channel persisting. It has and we are looking positive through today. However, there is a negative outlook for MBS for the rest of the month according to inside sources (more on that later). So the decision to lock should you receive the potential eighth should be heavily considered.
    Read More
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