June 2008 - MBS Commentary

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Monday 06/30/08..... Sideways into the close

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 8:31 PM

We haven't lost any more ground. 6.0's held up 2 ticks on the day and look to be riding that sideways wave to the close.
Graph to accompany the reprice warnin

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 7:33 PM

The 100-28 line was at the bottom of the tolerance range for reprices today, but falling below it took us back to the lows from early this morning. Still, lenders that priced conservatively may not reprice, and some already have. Still, stocks are setting...
reprices for worse are likely

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 7:07 PM

.125 at most if you have not already seen it. You might be tempted to float if you are thinking along the same lines as the analysts looking for the dow to continue to slide after today.
A bit more weakness...

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 4:40 PM

The 6.0 is at 100-29, probably not cause for concern, although a handful of lenders that priced more aggressively or "on the come," may sneak in a .125 for the worse, but with the Dow stepping back a bit in recent minutes, it's not extremely likely. Still...
Stocks add to gains, but MBS not yet convinced...

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 3:47 PM

It looks like it will take more than a 60 point rise in the DJIA to cause enough selling in MBS to worry about. As the index has risen, we have some selling in bonds, but only a tick or two. MBS 6.0's are still holding the 101-00 level. Still, lenders...
Monday 6/30/08 ....... Still Steady, Chicago PMI mixed

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 2:01 PM

The Numbers: 6.0% FNMA is up 4 / 32nds at 100-30 5.5% FNMA is up 7/32nds at 98-21 The News: Chicago PMI at 49.6 Consensus was for 48.0 5th straight month under 50.0 (under 50 = contracting business conditions) Cost of goods sold paradoxically decreases...
Monday 6/30/08 .... MBS Holds Steady Over Weekend

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by Matthew Graham on June 30 2008, 1:19 PM

At A Glance: MBS BETTER 4 ticks over official close, 0 ticks DoD, Slight Stronger vs. UST's Stocks hit "bear" qualifications last week. Futures bumpy but DJIA opens near even NY PMI (not chicago), weaker at 45.4, but 6 mo. outlook rises to 63.8 Weekly...
MBS RECAP 6-23 through 6-07

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by Matthew Graham on June 28 2008, 1:21 AM

What a day today: Which combined with yesterday to make it quite a two day period: Which combined with the rest of the week to make this quite a week (end of day prices starting monday the 23rd): Again, many indicators were stacked against MBS today,...
Friday 6/27/08 .... plateauing but still great

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 6:23 PM

I know this morning was "graph-less" so hopefully this late breakfast will satisfy your hunger: As you can see, it's been a good day to say the least. Our Ninja reports MBS have been finding lots of buyers including hedge funds, overseas, servicers, and...
Watch Out! (in a good way)

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 5:24 PM

Here we go again! Can you feel it now? Are we headed back down to 5.5 PAR? Well, not today of course, but stocks, they are a slidin' and that, in conjunction with tame inflation (which we got), was one of our two prerequisites for MBS to defy the market...
Friday 6/27/08 ..... still in the game...

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 4:51 PM

you might even see an eighth coming down the pike if we keep this up.
Friday 6/27/08 ....... Can it Be?

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 2:36 PM

(due to responses to your feedback, let's try a new caption "at a glance." The goal will be to condense all the relevant data into this top section so if you are pressed for time or are one of those 3 people that don't want to wade through the prose,...
Friday 6/27/08 ....... A Quiet, Flat Open for MBS.

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by Matthew Graham on June 27 2008, 1:25 PM

Much remains to be seen this morning and the standard full analysis will follow after more data is released and stocks have a chance to show their hand. Unless it is a tough day for stocks, it could be a tough day for MBS. Already this morning spreads...
Falling out.... (so sad....)

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2008, 7:37 PM

Looks like we're falling out of the trend channel just slightly. And with that, our hopes of reprices for the better today are diminishing. Considering the recent and decent run of good luck, locking feels like it should be heavily considered tonight...
Yes, We've held steady.

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by Matthew Graham on June 26 2008, 6:45 PM

As we discussed, the period following the last post would be important to gauging the probability of the trend channel persisting. It has and we are looking positive through today. However, there is a negative outlook for MBS for the rest of the month...

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