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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.6%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (44.5%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.9%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program





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  • Some Selling, but Still Positive

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 30 2008, 8:01 PM
    Take a look at yesterday's rates versus today's. If you are only .125 better, it is safe to keep floating, if you are .25 better, you might consider locking as we're fizzling out near the lows of the day.
    Read More

  • After The Rest Of The News, Still Doing Well...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 30 2008, 2:21 PM
    The rest of the news: 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 59.8, still at a 28 year low. Consumers expectations of future conditions including inflation are also at a 28 year low. 2. Chicago PMI came in at 49.1, slightly higher than expected, but below the moving average. 3. NAPM came in lower than expectations of 47.0 at 46.0. This is also down from 48.0 in April. All of this data is either neutral or positive for the bonds market. As such, MBS are holding their gains from earlier
    Read More

  • The Important News Is In (it's good)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 30 2008, 12:31 PM
    Of course, it's way too early to tell where MBS will be by the time rates come out, but Incomes and Outlays report was just released in our favor. The 6.0% coupon is already up 8/32nds and the 5.5 is up 12/32nds. There's you breaking news, more to follow when the rest of the data hits...
    Read More

  • Some actual good news

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 29 2008, 7:53 PM
    Quite the nice rebound in MBS this afternoon as we've recaptured almost half of the losses on the day. If you're lender is a laggard, they still may just be releasing a reprice for the worse. If their ahead of the curve the reprices should be hitting now. If you already got a reprice for the worse, or if your lender is diligent about getting out reprices in a timely manner, then floating for the rest of the business day makes sense, but with the boatload of data tomorrow, and a stock market that
    Read More

  • As stocks rise, MBS sells off deeper

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 29 2008, 5:05 PM
    now down 25/32nds on the day. ouch... more reprices for the worse potential
    Read More

  • Down, down, down

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 29 2008, 2:28 PM
    Down 19/32nds now. If you got rates already, they may be changing for the worse soon.
    Read More

  • The Hits Keep Coming (the bad hits)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 29 2008, 1:25 PM
    MBS are down sharply after this morning's data. 5.5% coupons are down 13/32nds on the day bringing us all the way down to 99-02. After yesterday's beating, which itself fell hard on the heels of a rough previous 3 days, we are down a total of 2 points (!!) peak to trough in the last 6 days. That's pretty harsh. News Driving The Changes: GDP was released today almost dead on with expectations as the US economy grew by .9% in the first quarter. The advance estimate reported .6% growth, and the analyst
    Read More

  • Still Weak, Still Sliding

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 28 2008, 5:17 PM
    There are only two kinds of lenders today: those that repriced for the worse and those that will. You may have gotten the first round after the last blog post. There is another round coming right now. We're off 22/32nds on the day on the 5.5% coupon now.
    Read More

  • Bonds slipping

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 28 2008, 3:22 PM
    perhaps a little too much selling pressure to keep floating. reprices for the worse potential.
    Read More

  • Oil Greases the Slope and Durable Goods Push MBS off the Edge

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 28 2008, 2:06 PM
    Though there are a few other economic reports today, two items dominate the tenor of the day: Durable Goods Orders and the trading price of Crude Oil. 1. Durable Goods This report measures purchasing by manufacturers which is a valuable and closely watched gauge of impending market conditions. The more producers are ordering, the better for stocks and worse for bonds (generally). This is exactly the case this morning. Although the headline reading, which is all-inclusive fell by .5%, the core reading
    Read More

  • At the lows of the day on the 5.5 coupon

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 27 2008, 6:39 PM
    we've dropped to 14/32nds negative on the day on the 5.5% coupon. Reprices for the worse are potential.
    Read More

  • MBS Follow Treasuries Down, Mixed Data

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 27 2008, 2:14 PM
    Take a look at the graph below and you can see that not only did we move a bit lower over the weekend, but the losses have extended to today. Even with stocks paring gains currently, MBS remains down by 11/32nds or so. So plan on at least .375 worse today from Friday. As for news, We began the day with the Case Shiller Index for March which showed a year over year decline of 14.4%. The month over month drop was 2.2%. Though bad, this is in line with other home price data available (except New Home
    Read More

  • MBS Extend Losses Over the Weekend

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 27 2008, 1:57 PM
    5.5% Note is down 10/32nds.... more to follow...
    Read More

  • Off The Highs (again)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 23 2008, 5:39 PM
    Floaters may want to consider locking unless you were going to try to ride the wave of negative data and stocks over the weekend. One potential feather in that hat is the fact that treasuries have had about DOUBLE the gains of MBS today. This leaves some room for MBS to close the Gap next week. Now, if that occurs while fixed income is suffering it doesn't do us any good, but if it occurs while stocks continue to slide and bonds continue to gain, it will do us a lot of good. The majority of the negative
    Read More

  • holding the highs

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on May 23 2008, 4:52 PM
    keep floating
    Read More
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