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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones
  • Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.6%)
  • Only a modest upturn in production (44.5%)
  • Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.9%)

Federal Reserve MBS Purchase Program





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  • Can't seem to get off the ground

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 8:10 PM
    MBS haven't retreated lower than their Friday levels but they also don't seem to have the will to improve today either. Many look to the NAPM as an indication of the ISM which is set to release tomorrow. Many analysts have upped their forecast because of the better than expected NAPM numbers this morning. If the ISM report meets or exceeds the new forecasts, it could be very bad for rates tomorrow. Furthermore, as rates near the bottom of their recent historical trading range, there is always more
    Read More

  • Fading Ever-So-Slightly

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 3:33 PM
    MBS is down just slightly by about 2-3/32nds. This will not lead to a reprice yet, but do stay on guard and be ready to lock should the losses continue.
    Read More

  • Chicago NAPM Index in at 48.2 (9:50 AM, EDT)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:52 PM
    This is higher than expected. MBS market is down slightly on the news. More to follow. Update: 10:05 EDT : So far the MBS market is digesting the NAPM data well. It's always interesting to see the market's reaction when a particular report comes in better than expected yet still negative (anything under 50.0 = contraction). The 5.5% coupon is holding at 101-01. Hank Paulson is speaking live right now regarding the Treasury Dept's "blueprint for regulatory reform." In general, this should not damage
    Read More

  • Theme for The Week: Employment and Production

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:21 PM
    Most of our scheduled economic releases this weak will deal with either employment or production. The only scheduled release for today is the Chicago NAPM index which read extremely low last month and is forecast for another historically low reading. So far this morning, MBS have extended their uphill march that began on Friday, but the data and the stock market's reaction may turn the tide in 15 minutes. The good news about MBS being in positive territory this morning is that it signifies limited
    Read More

  • MBS Prices This Morning

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 1:15 PM
    MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 99-04 /05 +0-09 FNMA 5.5 101-01 /02 +0-07 FNMA 6.0 102-14 /15 +0-04 FNMA 6.5 103-18 /19 +0-04
    Read More

  • How Sweet It Is!

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 9:01 PM
    Closing time for MBS and we continued our hot streak right up until the bell, ending on the highs of the day with the 5.5% coupon at 100-31, just a scant 1/32nd from the glorious 101-00 level. So even though you may be getting reprices for the better now, floating through the weekend is a worthy risk. Lenders are not pricing the full improvement into the market since we ended on an upward trend. Come monday, even if the data damages MBS pricing, it likely won't cut us back down to current lender
    Read More

  • Still Rockin' and Rollin'

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 6:44 PM
    We're skyrocketing right now towards 101-00 on the 5.5% coupon. Do not lock. Even if profit-takers in the MBS market decide to start selling off, we've come up so far that we still will not reprice for the worse on the day. If the gains hold these levels, it's a good idea to float through monday as even a down day on monday would only bring us back to even pricing levels. Granted we have 2 more hours of trading to go, but as of right now, things are looking good.
    Read More

  • Don't Forget Your Second Wind...

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 2:57 PM
    MBS have found their second wind after taking a bit of a beating this morning. Well, the losses this morning were more likely an extension of those from yesterday as the data has been more or less on our side this morning. The Consumer sentiment reading came in at 69.5, lower than the expectation of 70.0. The current analysts forecasts for all the various consumer reports are very low to begin with these days, so when we keep dipping below expectations it's generally good news for MBS. To top it
    Read More

  • Before The News

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 28 2008, 12:04 PM
    The MBS market is adding to losses that came yesterday afternoon with the 5.5% coupon down 5/32nds so far. Yesterday was frustrating for bears and bulls as inflation and "loss" concerns ruled the day. Money left the market in both stocks and bonds partly due to inflation headlines and possibly due to "preparation." It was another light volume day so the fact that MBS dropped almost half a point is not quite as horrible as it might be considering there was limited buying of MBS yesterday.. Unfortunately
    Read More

  • Up and Down Again

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 6:29 PM
    After we tanked earlier we're back up a bit to noon's levels. Floating is safe again for now. Ah, but as I typed that last sentence the market is tanking again, straight off a cliff. Price change for the worse highly likely.
    Read More

  • Dropping rapidly

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 4:19 PM
    We've come off 4/32nds in price quite rapidly in the last 10 minutes. If your rates are out already this morning, some lenders may reprice for the worse.
    Read More

  • Economy and Jobless Claims Hold Steady - MBS Unhappy

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:10 PM
    The relevant data this morning: GDP = 0.6%, dead even with analysts' expectations. Although this is a very poor growth rate, the fact that it is in line with analysts' predictions means the weakness of the reading had already been "priced in" to trading so this does nothing to help MBS pricing this morning. Adjusted for inflation, the numbers are their weakest since 2001. Corporate Profits fell 3.3% which yields a 6.6% change year over year. This is not of great importance to the MBS market. Jobless
    Read More

  • Price Changes (details to follow)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:06 PM
    MBS Price Data Price Change FNMA 5.0 98-15 /16 -0-11 FNMA 5.5 100-15 /15 -0-10 FNMA 6.0 102-03 /04 -0-05 FNMA 6.5 103-11 /13 -0-03
    Read More

  • Languishing near unchanged

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 5:41 PM
    MBS can't seem to pick up enough steam to get back up the hill. More conservative lenders may reprice an eighth or so for the worse. That's about a 50/50 shot, maybe less. If you're convinced of poor economic data tomorrow, floating still makes sense.
    Read More

  • Coming back now

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on March 26 2008, 5:10 PM
    The cliff had a shallow floor and we're still positive on the day 4/32nds. If you didn't see your reprice yet, floating again is likely an acceptable risk.
    Read More
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