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  • Happy Friday Night To You!

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 29 2008, 11:55 PM
    Well, I'm vindicated! I can remember if it was Monday or Last Friday that I mentioned we should have our best rates in quite some time today. I know you haven't seen it reflected in lender's rate sheets yet, but the MBS prices support rate levels of late January. It doesn't always pan out so nicely, but the analytics around the technical trend have held beautifully this week (I had mentioned that although rates got higher last week, they should come down this week based purely on technical forces
    Read More

  • Keep Floating

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 29 2008, 7:58 PM
    MBS's are improving!
    Read More

  • Ending The Week On A High Note

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 29 2008, 3:49 PM
    A high note for bond prices, that is, which as you know means lower rates yet again. Did you float with me? I hope so! we're improved by about 14/32nds today on the 5.5% coupon. The best thing about gaining ground today is not necessarily related to today's gains, but more importantly, it solidifies yesterday's boom. Lenders didn't price in all of that MBS "goodness" into their rate sheets yesterday. In fact, it's a pretty standard policy for lenders to "wait and see" if gains in the MBS market hold
    Read More

  • Before the Dawn

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 29 2008, 12:44 PM
    I rarely (very rarely) comment on overnight and futures trading since when the markets open all the fluctuations from overnight are at moot point. But for what it's worth, we'll be starting out this morning from a position of strength. Mortgage Backed Securities added quite nicely to their gains over night. If the data is even remotely on our side, today will be a fantastic day for rates. stay tuned!
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  • Finished Strong

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 29 2008, 12:31 AM
    Rates held their gains despite some mid-day fluffiness. In fact, we ended near our highs of the session. Hopefully we can extend the strength into tomorrow. I'm betting we will as I just past the lock cut-off time on a couple of my own loans. Roll the dice and hope for the best!
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  • Heads Up! (Mid-Afternoon Update)

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 28 2008, 7:21 PM
    Due to some volatility in bonds, some lenders may conservatively reprice for the worse. Lock if you can't afford to lose any ground. But in general the price fluctuations are not drastic. Stay tuned for updates.
    Read More

  • Don't Take The Bait!

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 28 2008, 4:47 PM
    From what I've seen coming across my desk this morning, lenders have not even begun to price the improvements into their rate sheets this morning. For instance, most lenders have improved by about .375% discount, whereas MBS are improved 22-32/32nds. So there's at least another .25 that will come today if MBS's hold gains. PLUS, we haven't realized all the benefit from yesterday. This is not quite normal, but easily explainable: lenders are obviously a bit wary to jump right into the pool while the
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  • Yee Haw!

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 28 2008, 3:31 PM
    I tried to think of clever headlines for today's blog, but at the end of the brainstorming session "Yee Haw!" fit best. The Data: 1.GDP Real GDP - Quarter over Quarter Change Consensus 0.7 % Actual 0.6 % GDP price index - Quarter over Quarter Consensus 2.6 % Actual 2.7 % 2. JOBLESS CLAIMS New Claims Consensus 350 K Actual 373 K The weaker than expected GDP and Worse than expected Jobless Claims are fueling the buying of bonds that we saw ramp up into yesterday afternoon. The 5.5% FNMA Coupon is improved
    Read More

  • ending the day strong

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 27 2008, 9:37 PM
    Looks like we are going to push to the highs of the day as MBS trading closes. The 5.5 coupon is up 20/32nds! That's it's highest level of the day and has been a technical "ceiling" that has enticed bond holders to sell earlier in the day. Volume reports indicate buyers outnumber sellers 4 to 1! Until now, sellers stepped in fairly aggressively when the price got this high, so it's fantastic news for mortgage rates. I have yet to see a lender that has priced in anywhere near this level of improvement
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  • Still Fighting the Good Fight

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 27 2008, 7:43 PM
    Keep you lock sheets handy, but it looks like he are holding a trend on the technical line of improvement still! In easier to understand terms: The line that graphs MBS prices today has been up and down, but if one were to plot points each time the line bottoms out, and then draw a line connecting those points, it would be moving upward at a 45 degree angle. In other words, bond prices are steadily climbing today which is good for rates. Since the low points on the price graph all lie exactly on
    Read More

  • Back and Forth a bit, but Holding Gains

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 27 2008, 5:29 PM
    After the Fannie and Freddie News (regulator lifted their investment caps), the MBS slipped about 5-7/32nds across the board. They have recouped most of those losses and since those losses were from their highest point of the day, that leaves us in great territory for the day. Keep in mind that today can be quite volatile, but as of now, keep floating as many lenders will be releasing reprices for a slight improvement.
    Read More

  • CHARGE!!!!!!

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 27 2008, 4:13 PM
    The epic battle of the week between economic weakness and inflation rages on today. Yesterday inflation had some wind taken out of it's sails and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) advanced nicely. As we discussed, yesterday's PPI data was the only major inflation report of the week, and the rest of the data would speak to the other factors of the economy. I had said earlier that even though inflation may be high, that other economic reports would continue to disappoint, and that if we could make it
    Read More

  • BONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 26 2008, 7:39 PM
    As officials from the FED comment that the economic slowdown is more of a concern than inflation, mortgage bonds are reacting favorably. Expect more price improvements to come soon.
    Read More

  • FED'S KOHN SAYS INFLATION TO SLOW

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 26 2008, 5:19 PM
    Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn spoke just now and had 3 important things to say that will impact mortgage rates: 1. Rate Cuts won't prevent near term economic weakness 2. Return to growth will "take a while" 3. Most importantly, he does not expect recent inflation rates to persist and inflation will slow in coming years All in all, this is great news for mortgage rates. I expect the mortgage bond market to react quite favorably. I would float through the rest of the day at least, until we have another
    Read More

  • Mortgage Backed Securities Fight Inflation

    Comments (0)
    by Matthew Graham on February 26 2008, 2:58 PM
    Perhaps it's due to yesterday's sell off, or perhaps there is support from weak economic data, but even in the face of dismal inflation data, MBS are holding steady on the day. the 5.5% coupon is actually trading up right now by 6/32nds. This is truly amazing considering we've received some of the worst inflation numbers in over 20 years. The core Producer Price Index came in at .4%, double the expectation of 2%. This should have destroyed rates this morning, but it hasn't. There are a couple mitigating
    Read More
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