January 2008 - MBS Commentary

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"Bernanke on Housing's Role in Recovery; Mortgage Rates Battle Back"

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:51 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 9:51 PM

Bonds Skyrocketing on "flight to quality" buying. Almost back to session opening highs. 50bps gain in the 5.0% on the day and about 35bps on the 5.5%. Too late today for reprices (for most lenders), so look for this to be baked into tomorrow's pie, which...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:35PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:42 PM

MBS's seem to be under some selling pressure now. 5.0 = +6/32nds 5.5 = +3/32nds If we hold or lose ground here, potential reprice for the worse.
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:06 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:05 PM

Some lenders are repricing for the worse possibly a preemptive move against bad news for Bond Insurers hitting the news currently. Whatever the case, bonds are holding steady, to slightly improved. 5.0% = +12/32 5.5% = +8/32 (as always, these are total...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 9:09 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 5:08 PM

Dow has turned positive to the tune of about 90 points currently. Although treasury yields are up, MBS’s are holding moderate gains. At 5-8/32nds improvement still.
THE BEARS FIRE BACK ..............................1/31/08

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 4:34 PM

The 5.0% coupon has gained 8/32 nds on the day currently The 5.5% coupon has gained 4/32 nds As we discussed yesterday, the market reaction to the FOMC announcement was tepid and Thursday and Friday’s data could give us more direction. It’s interesting...
1/31/08 ................................. Morning Report Numbers

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 2:19 PM

More to come shortly, but wanted to get you the early data from this morning ASAP. Personal Income and Outlays Report (a measure of consumer participation) Both readings were .1% higher than explanations, but the caveat is that outlays, the more important...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:57 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:56 PM

Bond pit is getting ready to close at its best levels of the day. 5.5 held at even for the day 5.0 currently knocking on the door to break through to even as well. This is off lows of the day 13/32nd's lower. Some lenders repriced too quickly when we...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:01 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:01 PM

Don't be fooled by mid-day reprices you might see coming across. These are laggards from data at 12:06. Bonds are at their best levels of the day so far, but still no expected rate improvement. Lenders that repriced too quickly an hour ago may reprice...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 12:06 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 8:01 PM

Bond Prices sliding a bit. 5.0% down 12-13/32nd's currently and 5.5% down 5/32nd's Lock if this scares you. Perhaps it should, but it's very difficult to say if lenders will reprice at this point.
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:57 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:56 PM

Holding steady within 2-3/32nds of day over day changes on 5.0 and 5.5 still. Dubya is talking right now about he wants congress to stimulate you. I don't think this will stir much up. Stay tuned on bond prices, so far, no major changes. as i mentioned...
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:37 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:36 PM

5.5% coupon Now unchanged on the day 5.0% coupon at 3/32nds worse on the day Float....
UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:25 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:25 PM

heavy trading on MBS market, which is to be expected. We're seeing 8/32nd point swings in under 60 seconds. As I started typing the 5.5% coupon was near even on the day, and now down 8/32nds. I'll keep you posted if it keeps sliding. Locking is the safe...
Full Text FOMC announcment

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:20 PM

MBS's are mixed following the .5/.5 announcement. Check out full text here: The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent. Financial markets remain under considerable stress...
1/30/08 - THE FIRST SHOTS HAVE BEEN FIRED

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 2:43 PM

The battle begins in earnest today. Even though the morning is young, and we know the biggest clash will be after the FOMC announcement, someone accidentally released GDP data at .6%, a five year low. Oh wait! That wasn't a mistake? The GDP figure really...
Late Day Jitters

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2008, 9:44 PM

MBS prices sliding. Safest to lock if your lender priced back up today after the worsening.

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