January 2008 - MBS Commentary

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Do you expect the home buyer tax credit extension to contribute to a noticeable pick up in loan production?

Created By: Adam Quinones

Yes, I anticipate an increase in activity (26.6%)
Only a modest upturn in production (44.5%)
Nope. 2009 demand stole from 2010 demand (28.9%)

Total Votes: 128
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See the News we're Reading: AROUND THE WEB

UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:51 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 9:51 PM

Bonds Skyrocketing on "flight to quality" buying. Almost back to session opening highs. 50bps gain in the 5.0% on the day and about 35bps on the 5.5%. Too late today for reprices (for most lenders), so look for this to be baked into tomorrow's pie, which could be a delicious dish indeed.

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:35PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:42 PM

MBS's seem to be under some selling pressure now. 5.0 = +6/32nds 5.5 = +3/32nds If we hold or lose ground here, potential reprice for the worse.

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 10:06 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 6:05 PM

Some lenders are repricing for the worse possibly a preemptive move against bad news for Bond Insurers hitting the news currently. Whatever the case, bonds are holding steady, to slightly improved. 5.0% = +12/32 5.5% = +8/32 (as always, these are total improvements on the day) So I would expect for lenders that have repriced to come back into the market by the end of the day, unless MBS's drop off.

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 9:09 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 5:08 PM

Dow has turned positive to the tune of about 90 points currently. Although treasury yields are up, MBS’s are holding moderate gains. At 5-8/32nds improvement still.

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THE BEARS FIRE BACK ..............................1/31/08

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 4:34 PM

The 5.0% coupon has gained 8/32 nds on the day currently The 5.5% coupon has gained 4/32 nds As we discussed yesterday, the market reaction to the FOMC announcement was tepid and Thursday and Friday’s data could give us more direction. It’s interesting that the data released today and tomorrow correlates directly with the reports. Market direction will depend on your read of the data, but I maintain my general bearishness, especially after this morning’s data. I feel that we have clear indications

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1/31/08 ................................. Morning Report Numbers

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by Matthew Graham on January 31 2008, 2:19 PM

More to come shortly, but wanted to get you the early data from this morning ASAP. Personal Income and Outlays Report (a measure of consumer participation) Both readings were .1% higher than explanations, but the caveat is that outlays, the more important piece of data were the lowest in 15 months, making ’07 the weakest year since ’03. ECI (employment cost index) Held dead even with expectations and previous numbers which is one signal that points to controlled inflation. This is good for rates

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:57 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:56 PM

Bond pit is getting ready to close at its best levels of the day. 5.5 held at even for the day 5.0 currently knocking on the door to break through to even as well. This is off lows of the day 13/32nd's lower. Some lenders repriced too quickly when we hit those levels and I had indicated they might change their tune. About five minutes ago I started getting emails from lenders repricing that improvement back in the market. Patting myself on the back? Maybe. Just remember who kept you up to date up

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 1:01 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 9:01 PM

Don't be fooled by mid-day reprices you might see coming across. These are laggards from data at 12:06. Bonds are at their best levels of the day so far, but still no expected rate improvement. Lenders that repriced too quickly an hour ago may reprice back to where the rest of the market is. 5.0 is at 4-5/32nd's down on the day 5.5 is even on the day.

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 12:06 PM PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 8:01 PM

Bond Prices sliding a bit. 5.0% down 12-13/32nd's currently and 5.5% down 5/32nd's Lock if this scares you. Perhaps it should, but it's very difficult to say if lenders will reprice at this point.

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:57 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:56 PM

Holding steady within 2-3/32nds of day over day changes on 5.0 and 5.5 still. Dubya is talking right now about he wants congress to stimulate you. I don't think this will stir much up. Stay tuned on bond prices, so far, no major changes. as i mentioned in an earlier post, traders may "wait" for the rest of the data this week. The stagnant response to today's news certainly seems to reinforce that possibility, so far...

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:37 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:36 PM

5.5% coupon Now unchanged on the day 5.0% coupon at 3/32nds worse on the day Float....

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UP TO THE MINUTE UPDATE ............................................. 11:25 PST

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:25 PM

heavy trading on MBS market, which is to be expected. We're seeing 8/32nd point swings in under 60 seconds. As I started typing the 5.5% coupon was near even on the day, and now down 8/32nds. I'll keep you posted if it keeps sliding. Locking is the safe bet as the market seems to be digesting the statement well, however bonds as of 11:31 PST have yet to break through 8/32nds down on the session. Stay closely tuned here. I'll let you know if they start to shoot up. You are PROBABLY safe to float until

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Full Text FOMC announcment

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 7:20 PM

MBS's are mixed following the .5/.5 announcement. Check out full text here: The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters

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1/30/08 - THE FIRST SHOTS HAVE BEEN FIRED

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by Matthew Graham on January 30 2008, 2:43 PM

The battle begins in earnest today. Even though the morning is young, and we know the biggest clash will be after the FOMC announcement, someone accidentally released GDP data at .6%, a five year low. Oh wait! That wasn't a mistake? The GDP figure really is that low? Huh... I guess the analysts and the bulls that shrugged off the impact the housing sector would have on the economy have something to think about. This is another piece of evidence in the case I've been building for decreased consumer

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Late Day Jitters

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2008, 9:44 PM

MBS prices sliding. Safest to lock if your lender priced back up today after the worsening.

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