December 2007 - MBS Commentary

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12/31/07 - Bond Prices Up Yet Again

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by Matthew Graham on December 31 2007, 4:07 PM

Weakness in stocks this morning are helping bond prices move higher again from their gains on Friday afternoon. Today is a shortened trading day with the markets closing at 2pm EST. You can expect pricing to be slightly better today than Friday (especially...
12/28/07 - RATES CONTINUE RALLY ON NEGATIVE NEW HOME SALES DATA

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by Matthew Graham on December 28 2007, 3:31 PM

In news released this morning, new home sells fell to their lowest level over 12 years. The reading was a bleak 647,000 compared to expectations of 715,000. This is a 9% drop from last month. This has prompted traders to begin to "price in" expectations...
BULLETIN - Bond Prices Moving Up

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by Matthew Graham on December 27 2007, 7:12 PM

MBS's are slightly higher than this morning. Mid-Day Reprices for the better are likely.
BULLETIN - OIL RESERVES

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by Matthew Graham on December 27 2007, 3:51 PM

In breaking news, oil stocks are down 3.3 million barrels in one week. This can hurt the perception of inflation. This increases the impetus to lock this morning.
12/27/07 BONDS RALLY ON WEAK ECONOMIC DATA

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by Matthew Graham on December 27 2007, 3:20 PM

Durable Goods Orders were down more than expected at +0.1% (expectations were +3.0%). This is bond-friendly news as is signals a potential slow down in the manufacturing sector. When the revised numbers from this report are released in roughly two weeks...
Bulletin 12/26

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by Matthew Graham on December 26 2007, 5:49 PM

Bond prices have begun to slide a bit. Some lenders have waited to price this into today's rates, others may have a reprice. Float with extreme caution.
12/26/07 Another Slow News Day

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by Matthew Graham on December 26 2007, 4:36 PM

Not much change from Monday... Stocks are down currently as a result of Target's sales numbers and the Case-Shiller Price index showing the largest decrease in home prices in 6 years. Bonds are trading fairly flat to slightly improved this morning with...
12/24/07 - NO NEWS, RATES SLIGHTLY WORSE ON STOCK GAINS

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by Matthew Graham on December 24 2007, 3:35 PM

There are no economic reports to be released today that will have an impact on mortgage rates. In addition, the market will be closing at an earlier than normal 2pm. When no economic reports are set to release, traders watch stocks for a sense of the...
12/21/07 Bond Prices Continue to Slide

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by Matthew Graham on December 21 2007, 4:25 PM

Consumer Sentiment was slightly higher than expected this morning. Combined with higher than expected consumer spending in the Incomes and Outlays report, the market is getting some reassurance of a stronger than expected consumer spending trend in the...
ALERT

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by Matthew Graham on December 20 2007, 7:37 PM

potential rate change for the worse
12/20/07 - Update

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by Matthew Graham on December 20 2007, 5:42 PM

The discrepancy in the bond quotes from different sources, although unresolved, appears not to be affecting rates. I suspect that the particular source that is "way off" compared to the rest of the market had some data transfer error. Whatever the case...
12/20/07 - MOSTLY GOOD AND A LITTLE BAD

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by Matthew Graham on December 20 2007, 3:18 PM

The plethora of information for the markets to digest arrived this morning and did not deviate greatly from expectations. Most of the news was bond-friendly: leading economic indicators fell .1% beyond expectations signaling further recession potential...
REITTERATION

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by Matthew Graham on December 19 2007, 9:10 PM

At the closing bell, mortgage bonds are up, way up. You should have already seen the first round of reprices from many lenders, more will be coming. Unless tomorrow's economic news is bad for bonds (or positive for the economy in general, thus moving...
UPDATE 12/19/07 11:07 PST

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by Matthew Graham on December 19 2007, 7:07 PM

MBS prices continue strong march upward. Keep floating until at least the end of the day. EXPECT REPRICES FOR THE BETTER FROM MOST LENDERS. If your lender of choice does not reprice this afternoon, expect it to be in tomorrow's rate sheet, tempered by...
BULLETIN 8:37 AM

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by Matthew Graham on December 19 2007, 4:39 PM

Move to float for short term. Bond prices up 6/32nds in the last 10 minutes.

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