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You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Jul 8, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 7/8/14
    Bond Rally Continues as Stocks Open Weaker; Europe Still Helping

    10yr yields have quickly moved to test a break below the important 2.57 level.  They'd been holding near 2.58 since about 9am, but went on another push lower after equities opened weaker.  European bond markets were also improving at the same time.

    2.57 is/was the closest major rally target, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see some sort of pause for consideration here.  It could also serve as a profit-taking target for shorter term trades betting on lower rates back at the 2.66 level.  In those cases, the technical target is usually broken by a modest amount before selling kicks in.

    If it's broken by more than a bp, then all bets are off.  We'd expect a bit of hesitation ahead of the week's remaining Treasury auctions.  Other than that, any sustained strength below 2.57 implies a run to at least 2.52 with the bigger deal being the 2.47% technical level.

    Fannie 3.5s are not keeping pace with this move so far--only up 7 ticks versus 13 ticks in 10yr prices.  Most of the gains were intact before the first rate sheets of the day, so positive reprice potential is limited.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 7/8/14
    Bond Buying Trend Continues Overnight and Into Domestic Session

    It was hard to read too much into yesterday's trading session, largely because markets were so inactive.  But it's getting a little easier to do so today.

    Fannie 3.5s are up a quick 6 ticks this morning and 10yr yields are already approaching the 2.57% technical level (2.578 currently).  The morning gains may look a bit abrupt, but that's simply a matter of timing. 

    Bond markets improved gently all night long, with help from weaker data in Europe and an ongoing rally in European government bonds.  By 7am, 10yr Treasuries were down to 2.59 from yesterday's 2.62 close. 

    There was a modest correction heading into 8am, which is why the move during the first hour of trading looks sharper.  When the entire  overnight session is taken into consideration, we're left with a very linear trend of improvement beginning yesterday morning.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 7/8/14

    10yr yields have quickly moved to test a break below the important 2.57 level.  They'd been holding near 2.58 since about 9am, but went on another push lower after equities opened weaker.  European bond markets were also improving at the same time.

    2.57 is/was the closest major rally target, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see some sort of pause for consideration here.  It could also serve as a profit-taking target for shorter term trades betting on lower rates back at the 2.66 level.  In those cases, the technical target is usually broken by a modest amount before selling kicks in.

    If it's broken by more than a bp, then all bets are off.  We'd expect a bit of hesitation ahead of the week's remaining Treasury auctions.  Other than that, any sustained strength below 2.57 implies a run to at least 2.52 with the bigger deal being the 2.47% technical level.

    Fannie 3.5s are not keeping pace with this move so far--only up 7 ticks versus 13 ticks in 10yr prices.  Most of the gains were intact before the first rate sheets of the day, so positive reprice potential is limited.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/8/14

    It was hard to read too much into yesterday's trading session, largely because markets were so inactive.  But it's getting a little easier to do so today.

    Fannie 3.5s are up a quick 6 ticks this morning and 10yr yields are already approaching the 2.57% technical level (2.578 currently).  The morning gains may look a bit abrupt, but that's simply a matter of timing. 

    Bond markets improved gently all night long, with help from weaker data in Europe and an ongoing rally in European government bonds.  By 7am, 10yr Treasuries were down to 2.59 from yesterday's 2.62 close. 

    There was a modest correction heading into 8am, which is why the move during the first hour of trading looks sharper.  When the entire  overnight session is taken into consideration, we're left with a very linear trend of improvement beginning yesterday morning.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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