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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Jul 31, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 7/31/14
    After recovering to less risky levels, Fannie 3.5s...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 7/31/14
    Holding Ground Now After Earlier Hiccup

    Fannie 3.5s are back up to 101-29 now after moving down to 101-26 just after 2pm.  10yr yields had been as high as 2.575 during the same time and are now back down to 2.554.  Any negative reprice risk that had been approaching is now retreating.  Volatility leading up to (and away from) 3pm remains possible. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 7/31/14
    This alert is only being labeled an alert (as opposed...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 7/31/14
    MBS Back into Positive Territory; Broader Bond Market Still on Fence

    Fannie 3.5s are up 6/32nds from the time that many lenders printed initial rate sheets, and are now officially back to positive territory on the day at 101-29.  10yr Treasuries are still about 1 bp higher on the day at 2.56.  In addition, this is right on the edge of a 'pivot point'--a horizontal line that's more likely to turn yields back in the other direction, but that connotes extra significance if broken.

    So essentially, we're waiting to see if 10's can break below 2.56 today.  That would be the first significant pivot point that would increase our fighting chances heading into tomorrow's NFP.  The dream-come-true pivot point is all the way down at 2.53, however.  That seems like too much to ask for now.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that today's resilience likely has much to do with 'month-end' tradeflows.  (read more...) And the connectivity between bond yields and stock prices suggests asset-allocation trading (i.e. money managers adjusting %'s of stocks vs bonds).  These are positive factors that would not be in play tomorrow.

    Bottom line, the more that 10yr yields could break below 2.56, the better.  The more they refuse, the worse the long-term implications are.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14
    Chicago PMI Much Weaker Than Expected; Bond Markets Barely Budge

    Fannie 3.5s moved up 2 ticks to 101-26  and 10yr yields fell just over 1bp to 2.58 following a weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI. 

    • July Chicago PMI 52.6 vs 63.0 forecast, 62.6 in June
    • Lowest since June 2013

    Given the magnitude of that 'miss,' bond markets really haven't recovered much, but we're only 10 minutes into the reaction so far.  Ideally, we'd want MBS and Treasuries to dig back in to yesterday's ranges.  Anything else simply confirms the negative bias leading up to tomorrow's NFP.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14
    The worst-case scenario in the short term is that tomorrow's...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
 
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  • 7/31/14
    After recovering to less risky levels, Fannie 3.5s...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14

    Fannie 3.5s are back up to 101-29 now after moving down to 101-26 just after 2pm.  10yr yields had been as high as 2.575 during the same time and are now back down to 2.554.  Any negative reprice risk that had been approaching is now retreating.  Volatility leading up to (and away from) 3pm remains possible. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14
    This alert is only being labeled an alert (as opposed...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14

    Fannie 3.5s are up 6/32nds from the time that many lenders printed initial rate sheets, and are now officially back to positive territory on the day at 101-29.  10yr Treasuries are still about 1 bp higher on the day at 2.56.  In addition, this is right on the edge of a 'pivot point'--a horizontal line that's more likely to turn yields back in the other direction, but that connotes extra significance if broken.

    So essentially, we're waiting to see if 10's can break below 2.56 today.  That would be the first significant pivot point that would increase our fighting chances heading into tomorrow's NFP.  The dream-come-true pivot point is all the way down at 2.53, however.  That seems like too much to ask for now.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that today's resilience likely has much to do with 'month-end' tradeflows.  (read more...) And the connectivity between bond yields and stock prices suggests asset-allocation trading (i.e. money managers adjusting %'s of stocks vs bonds).  These are positive factors that would not be in play tomorrow.

    Bottom line, the more that 10yr yields could break below 2.56, the better.  The more they refuse, the worse the long-term implications are.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14

    Fannie 3.5s moved up 2 ticks to 101-26  and 10yr yields fell just over 1bp to 2.58 following a weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI. 

    • July Chicago PMI 52.6 vs 63.0 forecast, 62.6 in June
    • Lowest since June 2013

    Given the magnitude of that 'miss,' bond markets really haven't recovered much, but we're only 10 minutes into the reaction so far.  Ideally, we'd want MBS and Treasuries to dig back in to yesterday's ranges.  Anything else simply confirms the negative bias leading up to tomorrow's NFP.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/31/14
    The worst-case scenario in the short term is that tomorrow's...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
 
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