Register or Sign in        Email This Page     Link To This Page    
Visit MND at MBA in NYC!
28,899
# of Forum Posts
Micro News Archives
Use the calendar to view Micro News posts from a specific date.
Today  |  Yesterday  |  Random
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Jul 22, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 7/22/14
    Back in Positive Territory After Familiar Rally

    Is European trading having an outsized effect on the domestic bond market?  The past two sessions would seem to suggest this.  Yesterday, bonds rallied together before US markets pulled back in the other direction after Europe closed. 

    Today's dynamic was the same, but in the opposite direction.  In both cases, Treasuries have seen a bit of a 'pop' just before 1pm, as if they were released from some previous obligation and could suddenly do what they please.  This will shortly be marked up on the dashboard chart of 10yr TSYs.

    Whatever the case, the important part is that MBS are back in positive territory and any earlier negative reprice risk is effectively off the table.  Fannie 3.5s are up 1 tick on the day at 102-17.  10yr yields continue to hover around 2.47.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/22/14
    The timing of this morning's gains and losses makes...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 7/22/14
    Bonds Bounce Back on CPI After Opening Weaker

    MBS opened 5 ticks weaker after Treasuries spent the overnight session moving steadily higher.  As has been the case of late, stocks and bonds continued moving together, but this time back toward riskier territory.  Of particular note was the move higher in German Bund yields as it's basically another bounce at all time lows.

    The morning's only 8:30am data--CPI--has marked a turning point in the weakness.  In fact, Fannie 3.5s just made it back to positive territory 10 minutes after the data.  10yr yields are down from 2.505 to 2.478.  Here's the run-down:

    • June CPI +.2573 vs +.3 forecast
    • Core CPI +.1291 vs +.2 forecast
    • Food +0.1, Housing +0.1
    • Inflation-adjusted average earnings +0.0 vs -0.1 previously

    This reaction is very important because it's by far and away the most pronounced response to CPI data in at least 4 years.  And for most of that time, it was an utter non-event.  In other words, we knew the day would come where markets would begin tuning back in to the price index data series.  Although we've noted a slight uptick in interest in recent months, today's leaves nothing to the imagination.

    In today's case, it looks like some market participants are/were defensive about the possibility that inflation could come in stronger than expected.  The simplest conclusion is that they're increasingly expecting changes in Fed policy based on inflation metrics.  That stands to reason considering the other half of the Fed's mandate (employment) is already showing the steady improvement needed in order to consider raising rates.  The more inflation we see, the sooner the Fed is seen raising rates.  As a final exclamation point on that thought, short end rates (those most tied to Fed Funds rate) are in positive territory while 10yr and 30yr Treasuries aren't quite there yet.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
MBS Micro News updates are a service provided to MBSonMND subscribers only.
Learn More | Start a Free Trial | Open the Dashboard
  • 7/22/14

    Is European trading having an outsized effect on the domestic bond market?  The past two sessions would seem to suggest this.  Yesterday, bonds rallied together before US markets pulled back in the other direction after Europe closed. 

    Today's dynamic was the same, but in the opposite direction.  In both cases, Treasuries have seen a bit of a 'pop' just before 1pm, as if they were released from some previous obligation and could suddenly do what they please.  This will shortly be marked up on the dashboard chart of 10yr TSYs.

    Whatever the case, the important part is that MBS are back in positive territory and any earlier negative reprice risk is effectively off the table.  Fannie 3.5s are up 1 tick on the day at 102-17.  10yr yields continue to hover around 2.47.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 7/22/14
    The timing of this morning's gains and losses makes...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 7/22/14

    MBS opened 5 ticks weaker after Treasuries spent the overnight session moving steadily higher.  As has been the case of late, stocks and bonds continued moving together, but this time back toward riskier territory.  Of particular note was the move higher in German Bund yields as it's basically another bounce at all time lows.

    The morning's only 8:30am data--CPI--has marked a turning point in the weakness.  In fact, Fannie 3.5s just made it back to positive territory 10 minutes after the data.  10yr yields are down from 2.505 to 2.478.  Here's the run-down:

    • June CPI +.2573 vs +.3 forecast
    • Core CPI +.1291 vs +.2 forecast
    • Food +0.1, Housing +0.1
    • Inflation-adjusted average earnings +0.0 vs -0.1 previously

    This reaction is very important because it's by far and away the most pronounced response to CPI data in at least 4 years.  And for most of that time, it was an utter non-event.  In other words, we knew the day would come where markets would begin tuning back in to the price index data series.  Although we've noted a slight uptick in interest in recent months, today's leaves nothing to the imagination.

    In today's case, it looks like some market participants are/were defensive about the possibility that inflation could come in stronger than expected.  The simplest conclusion is that they're increasingly expecting changes in Fed policy based on inflation metrics.  That stands to reason considering the other half of the Fed's mandate (employment) is already showing the steady improvement needed in order to consider raising rates.  The more inflation we see, the sooner the Fed is seen raising rates.  As a final exclamation point on that thought, short end rates (those most tied to Fed Funds rate) are in positive territory while 10yr and 30yr Treasuries aren't quite there yet.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
Did you know?
You can see a list of all comments on MND by clicking the 'Read the Latest Comments' option under the 'Community' menu.
 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.95%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.13%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.90%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-09 (0-00)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-21 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-18 (0-00)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 11.56%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 23.29%
  • |
  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%