Register or Sign in        Email This Page     Link To This Page    
Visit MND at MBA in NYC!
2,000,000
# of Visitors Per Month
Micro News Archives
Use the calendar to view Micro News posts from a specific date.
Today  |  Yesterday  |  Random
Bottom Right Default
State Name: New Jersey
State Name underscore: New_Jersey
State Name dash: New-Jersey
State Name lower underscore: new_jersey
State Name lower dash: new-jersey
State Name lower: new jersey
State Abbreviation: NJ
State Abbreviation Lower: nj
You are viewing Micro News from Wednesday, Jun 4, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 6/4/14
    At a glance, prices are sliding back toward the lows...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    Support Holding; MBS Bouncing Back For Now

    Bond markets were ultimately able to hold the line after hitting the weakest levels of the day just after 10am.  Unfortunately, the bounce didn't happen fast enough and even now, hasn't been around long enough to avoid a few of the negative reprices we warned about in the last alert.  

    That said, the longer that defensive line is held (around 102-04 in Fannie 3.5 coupons or 2.612 in 10yr yields) the better our chances become of avoiding additional reprices.  At this point, we could still see a few stragglers who have already decided to reprice, but lenders who were on the fence about it are likely holding off for now.

    Here's one constructive way to look at the last 5 days of pain--simply an endzone to endzone exploration of the pre-ECB trend running it's course up to the last possible day before the ECB Announcement itself.  (Adding emphasis to this notion of "full exploration of the range, right to the last minute," from European markets' perspective, trading levels reached the far endzone right at the end of the day.  Yields are only falling domestically because Europe is closed).

    NOTE: the relevant part of the chart for this discussion is the very last spike inside the yellow lines--basically just the move up from last week's lows to today's high yields.

    2014-6-4 trend review

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    What a difference 5 minutes can make. While the initial...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is one of the most...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    True to Form, No Major Impact from Weaker-Than-Expected ADP Data

    Two important things to keep in mind when approaching this morning:

    1. Markets don't care as much about ADP these days (discussed in more detail HERE)

    2. Markets aren't here to see ADP this week, and if they could only pick one event, they're not even here to see NFP

    The best piece of evidence for that is the last instance of NFP that crushed expectations yet somehow (read: 'thanks ECB!') still gave way to a positive day for bond markets.

    Today's ADP data is another piece of evidence.  At 179k versus 210k forecasts--and also in light of the 288k previous print on the last NFP--it was weak enough that, if the report mattered as much as it used to, we'd be gaining more ground than we are.  Granted, that assessment may vary depending on one's own personal biases, but you decide: is a move from 2.60 to 2.58 in 10yr yields the kind of rally you'd expect on these numbers?

    • ADP 179k vs 210k forecast
    • Last month revised to 215k from 220k

    Making it a bit tougher to pass judgment on ADP's relevance, 10yr yields are down another bp from the initial post-data pop, making it 3bps since the data, but only 2bps day-over-day (2.573 currently).  Fannie 3.5s are up 6 ticks at 102-10, and International Trade is coming out right now.  It's far more accomplished than ADP when it comes to reports that don't matter as much as they used to.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
MBS Micro News updates are a service provided to MBSonMND subscribers only.
Learn More | Start a Free Trial | Open the Dashboard
  • 6/4/14
    At a glance, prices are sliding back toward the lows...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14

    Bond markets were ultimately able to hold the line after hitting the weakest levels of the day just after 10am.  Unfortunately, the bounce didn't happen fast enough and even now, hasn't been around long enough to avoid a few of the negative reprices we warned about in the last alert.  

    That said, the longer that defensive line is held (around 102-04 in Fannie 3.5 coupons or 2.612 in 10yr yields) the better our chances become of avoiding additional reprices.  At this point, we could still see a few stragglers who have already decided to reprice, but lenders who were on the fence about it are likely holding off for now.

    Here's one constructive way to look at the last 5 days of pain--simply an endzone to endzone exploration of the pre-ECB trend running it's course up to the last possible day before the ECB Announcement itself.  (Adding emphasis to this notion of "full exploration of the range, right to the last minute," from European markets' perspective, trading levels reached the far endzone right at the end of the day.  Yields are only falling domestically because Europe is closed).

    NOTE: the relevant part of the chart for this discussion is the very last spike inside the yellow lines--basically just the move up from last week's lows to today's high yields.

    2014-6-4 trend review

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    What a difference 5 minutes can make. While the initial...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14
    The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is one of the most...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/4/14

    Two important things to keep in mind when approaching this morning:

    1. Markets don't care as much about ADP these days (discussed in more detail HERE)

    2. Markets aren't here to see ADP this week, and if they could only pick one event, they're not even here to see NFP

    The best piece of evidence for that is the last instance of NFP that crushed expectations yet somehow (read: 'thanks ECB!') still gave way to a positive day for bond markets.

    Today's ADP data is another piece of evidence.  At 179k versus 210k forecasts--and also in light of the 288k previous print on the last NFP--it was weak enough that, if the report mattered as much as it used to, we'd be gaining more ground than we are.  Granted, that assessment may vary depending on one's own personal biases, but you decide: is a move from 2.60 to 2.58 in 10yr yields the kind of rally you'd expect on these numbers?

    • ADP 179k vs 210k forecast
    • Last month revised to 215k from 220k

    Making it a bit tougher to pass judgment on ADP's relevance, 10yr yields are down another bp from the initial post-data pop, making it 3bps since the data, but only 2bps day-over-day (2.573 currently).  Fannie 3.5s are up 6 ticks at 102-10, and International Trade is coming out right now.  It's far more accomplished than ADP when it comes to reports that don't matter as much as they used to.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
Did you know?
You can see a list of all comments on MND by clicking the 'Read the Latest Comments' option under the 'Community' menu.
 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.24%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.36%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.08%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-20 (-0-10)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-06 (-0-04)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 110-25 (-0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 2.43%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 4.14%
  • |
  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%