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You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Jun 3, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 6/3/14
    We're beyond the "possible" or "probable"...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
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    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 6/3/14
    If current levels hold or worsen, negative reprices...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Trading has been fairly sparse this afternoon and 10yr...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Treasury Technicals Tested Again; MBS Not a Fan

    At current levels, this is more of a 'heads-up' than a full-blown alert.  10yr yields are, once again, poking through the 2.57 level (2.572 currently), and MBS responded with a quick 2 ticks of selling.  While we're still above the day's previous lows, if Treasuries continue higher into the 2.57's, selling momentum could quickly increase.

    Prices are currently only 3 ticks below early rate sheet print times--not quite enough for meaningful negative reprice risk, but close enough to be vigilant about any further weakness.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Bonds Holding Ground After Testing Range Boundary

    Earlier risk of negative reprices is quickly falling off the table as bond markets bounce back in line with the morning's initial range.  Perhaps most significant is the bounce at 2.57 in 10yr yields (officially as high as 2.575 for a moment).  This still isn't necessarily a done deal for the day, but any willingness to hold under 2.57 is a reinforcement of the pre-ECB range that's been intact since May 14th.

    10yr yields are currently not far enough away from 2.57 to rest easy (2.563), but MBS have come off their lows.  Fannie 3.5s are now down only 6 ticks on the day at 102-14, essentially in line with prices that prevailed during early rate sheet print times.  They had been as low as 102-09.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 6/3/14
    MBS are only a few ticks lower than reported in the...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Bond Markets Remain Under Pressure after Stronger Factory Orders Data
    • April Factory Orders +0.7 vs +0.5 pct
    • March revised to +1.5 from +0.9
    • Durable Goods  (April) revised to +0.6 from +0.8
    • April Factory Orders excluding defense spending +0.1 vs +1.1 in March

    Despite some mitigating factors in the internals, the headline and the revision to March are strong enough to add some pressure to already-pressured bond markets.  The reaction is most noticeable in Treasuries, which are now up to 2.568 in 10yr yields.  Fannie 3.5 MBS are down 8 ticks on the day, but only 2 of them since early rate sheet print times.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Bond Markets Weaker Overnight; Pre-ECB Positioning Continues

    Treasuries actually held up fairly well at the start of the overnight session and stayed in positive territory through Asian market hours.  Shortly after the European session opened, a somewhat brisk sell-off in core European bonds pulled Treasuries higher.

    To Treasuries' credit, they fought back quite well.  For instance, German Bunds (the benchmark for the Eurozone and generally closest correlation to US Treasuries) moved up 5bps while Treasuries only rose 3.5bps. 

    The overnight turning point was the release of 2 sets of data at 5am.  Eurozone employment improved just slightly and inflation fell less than feared.  Recent inflation data out of Germany provided some cause for concern that broader Eurozone inflation would have been decelerating more quickly.  An absence of rapid disinflation goes some small way to cast doubt on this week's probably easing announcement from the European Central bank.

    There hasn't been any significant domestic economic data so far today.  Bond markets continued to weaken into the domestic session.  At 2.554 currently, 10yr yields still have room overhead to explore their expected 2.57-2.47 range ahead of the ECB announcement on Thursday. 

    Even if that range doesn't hold, the general theme of the ECB approach is that of a month-end that got a bit overheated for bond markets last week with the first week of June marking a modest correction to the previously moderate exuberance.

    For their part, MBS are doing about the same with Fannie 3.5s down 6 ticks at 102-14.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 6/3/14
    We're beyond the "possible" or "probable"...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    If current levels hold or worsen, negative reprices...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    Trading has been fairly sparse this afternoon and 10yr...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14

    At current levels, this is more of a 'heads-up' than a full-blown alert.  10yr yields are, once again, poking through the 2.57 level (2.572 currently), and MBS responded with a quick 2 ticks of selling.  While we're still above the day's previous lows, if Treasuries continue higher into the 2.57's, selling momentum could quickly increase.

    Prices are currently only 3 ticks below early rate sheet print times--not quite enough for meaningful negative reprice risk, but close enough to be vigilant about any further weakness.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14

    Earlier risk of negative reprices is quickly falling off the table as bond markets bounce back in line with the morning's initial range.  Perhaps most significant is the bounce at 2.57 in 10yr yields (officially as high as 2.575 for a moment).  This still isn't necessarily a done deal for the day, but any willingness to hold under 2.57 is a reinforcement of the pre-ECB range that's been intact since May 14th.

    10yr yields are currently not far enough away from 2.57 to rest easy (2.563), but MBS have come off their lows.  Fannie 3.5s are now down only 6 ticks on the day at 102-14, essentially in line with prices that prevailed during early rate sheet print times.  They had been as low as 102-09.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    MBS are only a few ticks lower than reported in the...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14
    • April Factory Orders +0.7 vs +0.5 pct
    • March revised to +1.5 from +0.9
    • Durable Goods  (April) revised to +0.6 from +0.8
    • April Factory Orders excluding defense spending +0.1 vs +1.1 in March

    Despite some mitigating factors in the internals, the headline and the revision to March are strong enough to add some pressure to already-pressured bond markets.  The reaction is most noticeable in Treasuries, which are now up to 2.568 in 10yr yields.  Fannie 3.5 MBS are down 8 ticks on the day, but only 2 of them since early rate sheet print times.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/3/14

    Treasuries actually held up fairly well at the start of the overnight session and stayed in positive territory through Asian market hours.  Shortly after the European session opened, a somewhat brisk sell-off in core European bonds pulled Treasuries higher.

    To Treasuries' credit, they fought back quite well.  For instance, German Bunds (the benchmark for the Eurozone and generally closest correlation to US Treasuries) moved up 5bps while Treasuries only rose 3.5bps. 

    The overnight turning point was the release of 2 sets of data at 5am.  Eurozone employment improved just slightly and inflation fell less than feared.  Recent inflation data out of Germany provided some cause for concern that broader Eurozone inflation would have been decelerating more quickly.  An absence of rapid disinflation goes some small way to cast doubt on this week's probably easing announcement from the European Central bank.

    There hasn't been any significant domestic economic data so far today.  Bond markets continued to weaken into the domestic session.  At 2.554 currently, 10yr yields still have room overhead to explore their expected 2.57-2.47 range ahead of the ECB announcement on Thursday. 

    Even if that range doesn't hold, the general theme of the ECB approach is that of a month-end that got a bit overheated for bond markets last week with the first week of June marking a modest correction to the previously moderate exuberance.

    For their part, MBS are doing about the same with Fannie 3.5s down 6 ticks at 102-14.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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