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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Jun 12, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 6/12/14
    Another Leg Up For MBS; Positive Reprice Potential is Ongoing

    The post-auction relief rally continues in full force, complemented by heavy losses in equities.  10yr yields are now getting close to the 2.57 technical level--quite a reversal from the 2.66 support hit overnight.

    MBS are doing their best to keep pace with the Treasury-led rally.  Fannie 3.5s are up 13 ticks on the day, but 17 ticks from the morning lows at 102-05.  Lots of positive reprices have already come in and if you haven't see one yet, it's all but guaranteed. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 6/12/14
    Bond Markets Improve After Very Strong 30yr Auction

    Pretty simple here... The 30yr Auction was stellar.  The awarded yield was much lower than suggested by the 1pm yard-stick and the bid-to-cover (a measure of demand) was the strongest in over a year.

    10yr yields are absorbing much of the positivity (mostly focused on 30yr bonds), down 3.2bps now at 2.608.  Fannie 3.5s are up 5 ticks now after approaching unchanged levels ahead of the auction. 

    Holding here will very likely result in positive reprices.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14
    Slightly Weaker as 30yr Auction Approaches

    Since making a relatively quick move to the highs of the day this morning, bond markets have been giving back gains in the run up to this afternoon's 30yr Bond Auction.  Weakness has been mostly steady and inconsequential so far, though it does decrease the prospects for positive reprices.

    If we lost another 2-3 ticks, negative reprice risk would be increasing.  Fannie 3.5s are still in positive territory on the day, up 2 ticks at 101-26. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14
    Bond Markets Run to Best Levels; Approaching 3-day Highs

    MBS are Treasuries are near their best levels since Monday after breaking through today's previous resistance about 15 minutes ago.  10yr yields are down 2.1bps at 2.62 and Fannie 3.5 MBS are up 5 ticks at 101-29. 

    There was no overt market mover behind the mini-rally, but momentum clearly picked up, stock selling increased, and European bond markets were rallying toward the end of their session.  Most lenders won't be in a position to consider any positive reprices unless we add a few more ticks of gains and hold them.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14
    Bond markets back in positive territory after Retail Sales and Jobless Claims

    Both of this morning's 8:30am data sets were bond-market-friendly.  Trading levels were slightly weaker overnight and heading into the data, but both MBS and Treasuries have moved into positive territory afterward.

    Jobless Claims

    • 317k vs 310k forecast
    • Continued Claims 2.614 mln vs 2.598 mln
    • share of morning market movement: 35%

    Retail Sales

    • May Retail Sales +0.3 vs +0.6 forecast
    • April revised to +0.5 from +0.1
    • Excluding Auto sector +0.1 vs +0.4 forecast
    • Excluding Auto/Gas/Building Materials/Food +0.0 vs +0.4 forecast
    • share of morning market movement: 65%

    The gains have been nothing if not moderate and bonds are only barely in the green at the moment.  The strong revisions in the Retail Sales data  rob it of some of it's bond market benefit.

    Fannie 3.5s are now 101-26, up 2 ticks on the day.  They were as low as 101-21 before the data.  10yr yields are down 0.7bps on the day at 2.6331.  They were as high as 2.659, which is an important technical level (2.66%).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 6/12/14

    The post-auction relief rally continues in full force, complemented by heavy losses in equities.  10yr yields are now getting close to the 2.57 technical level--quite a reversal from the 2.66 support hit overnight.

    MBS are doing their best to keep pace with the Treasury-led rally.  Fannie 3.5s are up 13 ticks on the day, but 17 ticks from the morning lows at 102-05.  Lots of positive reprices have already come in and if you haven't see one yet, it's all but guaranteed. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14

    Pretty simple here... The 30yr Auction was stellar.  The awarded yield was much lower than suggested by the 1pm yard-stick and the bid-to-cover (a measure of demand) was the strongest in over a year.

    10yr yields are absorbing much of the positivity (mostly focused on 30yr bonds), down 3.2bps now at 2.608.  Fannie 3.5s are up 5 ticks now after approaching unchanged levels ahead of the auction. 

    Holding here will very likely result in positive reprices.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14

    Since making a relatively quick move to the highs of the day this morning, bond markets have been giving back gains in the run up to this afternoon's 30yr Bond Auction.  Weakness has been mostly steady and inconsequential so far, though it does decrease the prospects for positive reprices.

    If we lost another 2-3 ticks, negative reprice risk would be increasing.  Fannie 3.5s are still in positive territory on the day, up 2 ticks at 101-26. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14

    MBS are Treasuries are near their best levels since Monday after breaking through today's previous resistance about 15 minutes ago.  10yr yields are down 2.1bps at 2.62 and Fannie 3.5 MBS are up 5 ticks at 101-29. 

    There was no overt market mover behind the mini-rally, but momentum clearly picked up, stock selling increased, and European bond markets were rallying toward the end of their session.  Most lenders won't be in a position to consider any positive reprices unless we add a few more ticks of gains and hold them.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 6/12/14

    Both of this morning's 8:30am data sets were bond-market-friendly.  Trading levels were slightly weaker overnight and heading into the data, but both MBS and Treasuries have moved into positive territory afterward.

    Jobless Claims

    • 317k vs 310k forecast
    • Continued Claims 2.614 mln vs 2.598 mln
    • share of morning market movement: 35%

    Retail Sales

    • May Retail Sales +0.3 vs +0.6 forecast
    • April revised to +0.5 from +0.1
    • Excluding Auto sector +0.1 vs +0.4 forecast
    • Excluding Auto/Gas/Building Materials/Food +0.0 vs +0.4 forecast
    • share of morning market movement: 65%

    The gains have been nothing if not moderate and bonds are only barely in the green at the moment.  The strong revisions in the Retail Sales data  rob it of some of it's bond market benefit.

    Fannie 3.5s are now 101-26, up 2 ticks on the day.  They were as low as 101-21 before the data.  10yr yields are down 0.7bps on the day at 2.6331.  They were as high as 2.659, which is an important technical level (2.66%).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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