Bond Markets Unchanged Overnight; MBS Edge Into Positive Territory
The overnight session was largely uneventful for Treasuries. Just like MBS roll to their next coupon tonight (Fannie and Freddie 30yr only), 10yr yields rolled to their new coupon at the start of the overnight session, making for the appearance of an abrupt move higher in yield. Just like the MBS roll, it's not actual market movement. We're just changing the security we look at to determine "10yr yields" from the old one, to the new one.
The first meaningful movement of the day came after the jobless claims data, though 'meaningful' is a stretch. Claims were slightly stronger than expected (319k vs 325k forecast) and 'Continued Claims' fell to 2.685 from 2.761 previously. 10yr yields moved up from 2.616 to 2.623 initially, but are back down to the lows of the morning at 2.611 presently.
MBS are outperforming, and haven't lost any ground since 8:30. In fact, Fannie 4.0s and 3.5s JUST moved into positive territory on the day--both up 1/32nd.
ECB President Mario Draghi is in the middle of his post-announcement press conference, but hasn't said anything to move markets enough as to be felt across the Atlantic.