Register or Sign in        Email This Page     Link To This Page    
Visit MND at MBA in NYC!
117,674
# of Subscribers
Micro News Archives
Use the calendar to view Micro News posts from a specific date.
Today  |  Yesterday  |  Random
Bottom Right Default
State Name: Washington
State Name underscore: Washington
State Name dash: Washington
State Name lower underscore: washington
State Name lower dash: washington
State Name lower: washington
State Abbreviation: WA
State Abbreviation Lower: wa
You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, May 29, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 5/29/14
    While it may be a less liquid post-3pm environment...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS drifted back to the previous lows of the day at...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Worst Selling is Over, though Reprice Risk Lingers for Some

    Just a heads up for our members who are relying on text/email updates, the worst of today's selling looks to be over now.  MBS and Treasuries have bounced enough, and held the bounce long enough that we the lows are very likely in for the day.  Negative reprices could still be rolling in, however, mainly from lenders that haven't already repriced since 1pm.

    Fannie 3.5s are now down only 3 ticks on the day, up 4 from the lowest levels (103-05 vs 103-01), and 10yr yields are back down to 2.441 after making it as high as 2.457.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Rate snowball looks like it's starting to roll...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Negative reprices are incrementally more likely now...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS briefly moved into negative territory immediately...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS Off Highs, but Still Close to Rate Sheet Print Time Levels

    The title of the update says it all, really.  After pushing into new highs (103-14 in Fannie 3.5s), MBS have moved fairly quickly back to levels seen during morning rate sheets.  That makes negative reprices unlikely, but it's still worth noting that current levels are down 4/32nds from the highs. 

    10yr yields are back up to 2.427 after making it as low as 2.402.  There are no overt market-movers behind the pull back, though the bulk of today's rally occurred precisely in line with the Fed's scheduled Treasury buying operation (10:15am) and began to pull back precisely when it wrapped up at 11am.

    Treasuries have been bumping up against a ceiling at 2.427 here.  This acted as a floor earlier this morning.  If it breaks now, it could lead to further weakness, and that would likely translate to MBS to some extent.  At that point, negative reprice risk would begin increasing.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS and Treasury Rally Continues; Best Levels of 2014

    The sideways vibe in place this morning has now given way to moderate gains.  That's pretty impressive considering the morning was sideways near the year's best levels.  As such, the moderate gains make for new 2014 records.

    More importantly, 10yr yields are currently below 2.42% which has been an important technical level in the past.  But keep in mind that we're dealing with technical levels so long term that there's no perfectly precise trading level that acts as "the one" inflection point.  In this zone, anything from 2.42 to 2.33 could be considered one big "inflection zone." 

    Some technicians will likely key in on the fact that 2.41 is the 38% retracement of the move from 2012 lows to 2013 highs.  That sets the bar a bit higher for labeling today's move significant, but 10's are already at 2.406, so it's certainly a possibility.  Moving lower past 2.40 would increase the odds of another snowball rally today, but if we see that, be aware that such a rally would set us up for a quick snap back to this 2.40-2.42 range.

    MBS have backed off a bit from their recent streak of outperformance, though they're still into their best levels of the year.  Fannie 3.5s are currently up 6 ticks at 103-14.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Bond Markets Reasonably Flat Following GDP, Claims

    If part of yesterday's rally had indeed been to cover the risk of a worse-than-expected GDP print (more on that here), then bond markets did a pretty good job of 'buying the rumor.'  Reason being: despite a reading of -1.0 vs a -0.5 forecast, bond markets are still holding steady near yesterday's latest levels.  Stronger Jobless Claims data could also be offsetting the data somewhat.  Here's a run-down of both sets of data:

    GDP

    • Q1 preliminary GDP (1st revision) -1.0 vs -0.5 forecast
    • First decline since 2011
    • most of decline due to drop in business inventories +$49 bln vs +87.4 bln previously

    Jobless Claims

    • Claims 300k vs 318k forecast, 327k previously
    • Continued Claims 2.631 mln vs 2.65 mln forecast

    Ahead of the data, Treasuries were coming off a reasonably strong overnight session that saw 10yr yields as low as 2.4219.  By 8am, yields were nearly unchanged at 2.434--pretty uneventful for the morning after a big rally.  MBS opened just slightly stronger but still within yesterday's range.

    Immediately following the data, both MBS and Treasuries improved briefly and then pulled back to microscopically weaker levels.  Fannie 3.5s are currently down only 1 tick at 103-08, and 10yr yields just made it back to positive territory, down 0.004 at 2.434.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
MBS Micro News updates are a service provided to MBSonMND subscribers only.
Learn More | Start a Free Trial | Open the Dashboard
  • 5/29/14
    While it may be a less liquid post-3pm environment...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS drifted back to the previous lows of the day at...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14

    Just a heads up for our members who are relying on text/email updates, the worst of today's selling looks to be over now.  MBS and Treasuries have bounced enough, and held the bounce long enough that we the lows are very likely in for the day.  Negative reprices could still be rolling in, however, mainly from lenders that haven't already repriced since 1pm.

    Fannie 3.5s are now down only 3 ticks on the day, up 4 from the lowest levels (103-05 vs 103-01), and 10yr yields are back down to 2.441 after making it as high as 2.457.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Rate snowball looks like it's starting to roll...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    Negative reprices are incrementally more likely now...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14
    MBS briefly moved into negative territory immediately...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14

    The title of the update says it all, really.  After pushing into new highs (103-14 in Fannie 3.5s), MBS have moved fairly quickly back to levels seen during morning rate sheets.  That makes negative reprices unlikely, but it's still worth noting that current levels are down 4/32nds from the highs. 

    10yr yields are back up to 2.427 after making it as low as 2.402.  There are no overt market-movers behind the pull back, though the bulk of today's rally occurred precisely in line with the Fed's scheduled Treasury buying operation (10:15am) and began to pull back precisely when it wrapped up at 11am.

    Treasuries have been bumping up against a ceiling at 2.427 here.  This acted as a floor earlier this morning.  If it breaks now, it could lead to further weakness, and that would likely translate to MBS to some extent.  At that point, negative reprice risk would begin increasing.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14

    The sideways vibe in place this morning has now given way to moderate gains.  That's pretty impressive considering the morning was sideways near the year's best levels.  As such, the moderate gains make for new 2014 records.

    More importantly, 10yr yields are currently below 2.42% which has been an important technical level in the past.  But keep in mind that we're dealing with technical levels so long term that there's no perfectly precise trading level that acts as "the one" inflection point.  In this zone, anything from 2.42 to 2.33 could be considered one big "inflection zone." 

    Some technicians will likely key in on the fact that 2.41 is the 38% retracement of the move from 2012 lows to 2013 highs.  That sets the bar a bit higher for labeling today's move significant, but 10's are already at 2.406, so it's certainly a possibility.  Moving lower past 2.40 would increase the odds of another snowball rally today, but if we see that, be aware that such a rally would set us up for a quick snap back to this 2.40-2.42 range.

    MBS have backed off a bit from their recent streak of outperformance, though they're still into their best levels of the year.  Fannie 3.5s are currently up 6 ticks at 103-14.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/29/14

    If part of yesterday's rally had indeed been to cover the risk of a worse-than-expected GDP print (more on that here), then bond markets did a pretty good job of 'buying the rumor.'  Reason being: despite a reading of -1.0 vs a -0.5 forecast, bond markets are still holding steady near yesterday's latest levels.  Stronger Jobless Claims data could also be offsetting the data somewhat.  Here's a run-down of both sets of data:

    GDP

    • Q1 preliminary GDP (1st revision) -1.0 vs -0.5 forecast
    • First decline since 2011
    • most of decline due to drop in business inventories +$49 bln vs +87.4 bln previously

    Jobless Claims

    • Claims 300k vs 318k forecast, 327k previously
    • Continued Claims 2.631 mln vs 2.65 mln forecast

    Ahead of the data, Treasuries were coming off a reasonably strong overnight session that saw 10yr yields as low as 2.4219.  By 8am, yields were nearly unchanged at 2.434--pretty uneventful for the morning after a big rally.  MBS opened just slightly stronger but still within yesterday's range.

    Immediately following the data, both MBS and Treasuries improved briefly and then pulled back to microscopically weaker levels.  Fannie 3.5s are currently down only 1 tick at 103-08, and 10yr yields just made it back to positive territory, down 0.004 at 2.434.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
 
No Micro News Posts Here.

Options:
 
Did you know?
You can see a list of all comments on MND by clicking the 'Read the Latest Comments' option under the 'Community' menu.
 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.15%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.28%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.02%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-00 (0-02)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-11 (0-02)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-04 (-0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -2.68%
  • |
  • Refinance Index -3.98%
  • |
  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%