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You are viewing Micro News from Wednesday, May 28, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 5/28/14
    Ongoing Positive Reprice Potential as Rally Faces Few Threats

    It's never a given that big rallies, such as today's, will result in prices leveling off calmly, but that's what we have so far today.  Actually, it's a bit better than that.  Prices leveled-off calmly into the noon hour and moved up a few more ticks in the afternoon after--but not due to--an uneventful 5yr Treasury Auction.

    Fannie 3.5s are now up 21 ticks on the day to 103-11, keeping good pace with the rally in Treasuries.  10yr yields are down 8bps to 2.438, and look poised to hit the 3pm CME pit close below the important 2.47 level.

    We've already seen quite a few positive reprices, but the possibility is ongoing.  If you haven't yet seen a reprice, it's a near certainty. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 5/28/14
    Rally Getting Progressively More Serious

    If bond markets were to close right now, current levels would officially constitute a break below the epic 2.47% inflection point.  While such epic breaks would still require 'confirmation' from a consecutive close in the new territory, momentum is clearly tilted toward better buying.

    Unlike the last run at 2.47, this one isn't inspired by European markets.  10yr Treasuries just moved noticeably into new lows of the day even as Germany's 10yr yields held their previous lows.

    Some of the snowball in bond market tradeflows is being chalked up to early 'month-end' buying among money managers who are forced to match their portfolios to various indices. Other, more tactical traders may be taking a 'lead-off' ahead of tomorrow's GDP revision.  While these factors don't explain all of the gains, they're both in line with the existing positivity. 

    10's are now down to 2.459 and Fannie 3.5s are up more than 3/8th of a point at 103-04.  Most of these gains were intact before the first rate sheets of the day, thus limiting positive reprice potential.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 5/28/14
    Bond Markets Rallying Hard This Morning; Best Levels Since June 2013

    Bond markets were moderately stronger overnight with some help from European bond markets.  Even then, Treasuries were already trending toward lower yields.  10yr's hit the domestic session about 2bps lower at 2.498 and have since fallen to the lowest levels in more than 11 months (2.4697 currently).  MBS have made a similar long-term break out by moving above 103-02, currently up 11 ticks at 103-02.

    As suggested in the Day Ahead, any big move would "have to come from tradeflows and technicals unless we happen to get a big enough headline."  Reason being: there are no significant market movers on today's calendar, not to mention the fact that we've already seen 'big moves' and remain clearly lacking in overt reasons.

    With respect to 'tradeflows and technicals,' take a look at the chart of 10yr yields posted this morning:

    2014-5-27 Treasury Trend Tests

    Now it looks like this:

    2014-5-28 Treasury

    This is the "technical" piece of this morning's equation--i.e. breaking the yellow lines suggested a possible move to 2.47.  Although yields have already been as low as 2.466, that's not a big enough break to consider the range "broken."  Adding to that assessment, 10's are currently holding just over 2.47.

    The technical significance of 2.47 does more to account for why the rally leveled off where it did.  As for why it got going in the first place, again, there are no satisfying sources of causality apart from "that's the way the traders are trading"--essentially the most flippant and least informative way to describe the concept of "tradeflows."

    With that in mind, like begets like when it comes to days that are devoid of significant market movers.  Trading motivations come from the observation of other big trades.  Sometimes those are actual decisions ("based on these big trades I'm seeing, I'm deciding to buy/sell here") and other times traders are simply forced in ("crap... 10's just hit 2.47 and I have a stop-loss in place there.  Looks like I just automatically bought Treasuries to close my short position").

    Through an unknowable combination of those decisions and 'forced hands,' momentum picks up and longer-term technical levels become likely targets.  And so it is that I can write these many words this morning with 10yr yields holding between 2.47 and 2.48 the entire time. 

    A major break below 2.47 is a bigger consideration.  As for now, we have a positive bias in momentum that has gone about as far as it can go without being labeled a more significant event.  That's not to say breaking below 2.47 is impossible before next week's important data, just that it would be a tall order.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 5/28/14

    It's never a given that big rallies, such as today's, will result in prices leveling off calmly, but that's what we have so far today.  Actually, it's a bit better than that.  Prices leveled-off calmly into the noon hour and moved up a few more ticks in the afternoon after--but not due to--an uneventful 5yr Treasury Auction.

    Fannie 3.5s are now up 21 ticks on the day to 103-11, keeping good pace with the rally in Treasuries.  10yr yields are down 8bps to 2.438, and look poised to hit the 3pm CME pit close below the important 2.47 level.

    We've already seen quite a few positive reprices, but the possibility is ongoing.  If you haven't yet seen a reprice, it's a near certainty. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/28/14

    If bond markets were to close right now, current levels would officially constitute a break below the epic 2.47% inflection point.  While such epic breaks would still require 'confirmation' from a consecutive close in the new territory, momentum is clearly tilted toward better buying.

    Unlike the last run at 2.47, this one isn't inspired by European markets.  10yr Treasuries just moved noticeably into new lows of the day even as Germany's 10yr yields held their previous lows.

    Some of the snowball in bond market tradeflows is being chalked up to early 'month-end' buying among money managers who are forced to match their portfolios to various indices. Other, more tactical traders may be taking a 'lead-off' ahead of tomorrow's GDP revision.  While these factors don't explain all of the gains, they're both in line with the existing positivity. 

    10's are now down to 2.459 and Fannie 3.5s are up more than 3/8th of a point at 103-04.  Most of these gains were intact before the first rate sheets of the day, thus limiting positive reprice potential.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 5/28/14

    Bond markets were moderately stronger overnight with some help from European bond markets.  Even then, Treasuries were already trending toward lower yields.  10yr's hit the domestic session about 2bps lower at 2.498 and have since fallen to the lowest levels in more than 11 months (2.4697 currently).  MBS have made a similar long-term break out by moving above 103-02, currently up 11 ticks at 103-02.

    As suggested in the Day Ahead, any big move would "have to come from tradeflows and technicals unless we happen to get a big enough headline."  Reason being: there are no significant market movers on today's calendar, not to mention the fact that we've already seen 'big moves' and remain clearly lacking in overt reasons.

    With respect to 'tradeflows and technicals,' take a look at the chart of 10yr yields posted this morning:

    2014-5-27 Treasury Trend Tests

    Now it looks like this:

    2014-5-28 Treasury

    This is the "technical" piece of this morning's equation--i.e. breaking the yellow lines suggested a possible move to 2.47.  Although yields have already been as low as 2.466, that's not a big enough break to consider the range "broken."  Adding to that assessment, 10's are currently holding just over 2.47.

    The technical significance of 2.47 does more to account for why the rally leveled off where it did.  As for why it got going in the first place, again, there are no satisfying sources of causality apart from "that's the way the traders are trading"--essentially the most flippant and least informative way to describe the concept of "tradeflows."

    With that in mind, like begets like when it comes to days that are devoid of significant market movers.  Trading motivations come from the observation of other big trades.  Sometimes those are actual decisions ("based on these big trades I'm seeing, I'm deciding to buy/sell here") and other times traders are simply forced in ("crap... 10's just hit 2.47 and I have a stop-loss in place there.  Looks like I just automatically bought Treasuries to close my short position").

    Through an unknowable combination of those decisions and 'forced hands,' momentum picks up and longer-term technical levels become likely targets.  And so it is that I can write these many words this morning with 10yr yields holding between 2.47 and 2.48 the entire time. 

    A major break below 2.47 is a bigger consideration.  As for now, we have a positive bias in momentum that has gone about as far as it can go without being labeled a more significant event.  That's not to say breaking below 2.47 is impossible before next week's important data, just that it would be a tall order.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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