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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Apr 10, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 4/10/14
    This is another alert to keep you apprised of the leakage...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    This isn't so much a strict "reprice alert"...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    Surprisingly Decent 30yr Bond Auction; Delayed Gratification for Bond Markets

    While it hasn't made for any significant selling pressure in MBS, the 30yr Bond Auction results didn't prompt much additional positivity (not at first anyway).  That's counterintuitive consider the bid-to-cover and awarded yield were both better than recent averages, which is even more impressive given the fact that the auction happened at the day's strongest levels after a significant rally (all things being equal, markets tend to favor slight weakness in the bonds that are about to be auctioned, with a slight recovery in the event of an average-or-better result).

    The easiest explanation is that today's market movement isn't too concerned with Treasury supply, and is instead driven by big, archetypal trades favoring safety vs risk.  This can create a good amount of momentum in multiple asset classes and today is no exception.  S&Ps are down 30 points.  Euros and Yen have rallied immensely, as have MBS and Treasuries.  The end of the week's Treasury supply burden isn't really a cause for celebration when bigger fish are already in the process of being fried.

    That said, here at the 15 minute mark, bonds are breaking into stronger territory.  It's tough to say whether this has anything to do with the auction.  It probably does not, but the auction being over certainly doesn't stand in the way of more tradeflow-based positivity.  There are also more QE headlines out from the ECB just now.

    MBS are at the day's best levels, up nearly half a point at 104-25 and 10yr yields are down 6.5bps to 2.62. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    Snowball Buying Increases for Bonds; Positive Reprice Potential is Ongoing

    The moderate positive reprice potential mentioned in the last update is now full-fledged as bond markets embarked on an exponentially stronger run.  Both MBS and Treasuries moved well into their best levels of the day as S&P futures shed a fairly abrupt 15 points since the open.

    Any lenders who have not yet repriced stand a good chance of doing so.  Even the late-pricing crowd is looking at better than 6 ticks of improvement since initial rate sheet.  Several lenders are already out with reprices.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    MBS and Treasuries Breaking into Day's Best Levels; Some Early Reprice Potential

    While bond markets coped with a bit of weakness immediately following the stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims data, the supportive undertones we noted in the morning update ended up marking the extent of that weakness (i.e. 10yr yields did indeed treat the 2.68's as an overhead support level).

    10's were at their weakest levels for the last time right as stocks opened and have gradually improved since then.  MBS have been improving since 9am and are currently up 6 ticks on the day, with some lenders seeing as much as a 5 tick gain from initial rate sheet print times.  That means positive reprices are technically possible for a few of the early lenders, but would become more probable with a few more ticks of improvement, or more time spent holding current levels.

    The extent to which bond markets are willing to rally strongly ahead of an afternoon Treasury auction is questionable, but that would leave a post-auction relief rally as a possibility. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    Bond Markets Giving Up Overnight Gains After Stronger Jobless Claims

    Treasuries made quite a strong move overnight, making it all the way into the 2.65's in 10yr yields.  While some of those gains were already being given up into the domestic session, it looked as if bond markets would have been willing to go either direction after the 8:30am data.

    With Jobless Claims coming in stronger (300k vs 320k forecast) and continued claims dropping below 2.8m, the first reaction is a moderate move toward weaker levels for Treasuries and MBS.  10yr yields are up to 2.675 from 2.665 just before the data (2.6501 overnight).  MBS are only 2 ticks off their highs (104-13 vs 104-15 in Fannie 4.0s).

    Despite the move higher, we're already seeing signs that it might stay contained.  Not only was the initial pop on the small side, but it's clearly meeting some resistance now.  If this morning's high yields continue to hold, that would be a very positive sign from a technical standpoint (making the 2.68 level discussed in the 'day ahead' act as a pivot point instead of a resistance level).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 4/10/14
    This is another alert to keep you apprised of the leakage...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14
    This isn't so much a strict "reprice alert"...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14

    While it hasn't made for any significant selling pressure in MBS, the 30yr Bond Auction results didn't prompt much additional positivity (not at first anyway).  That's counterintuitive consider the bid-to-cover and awarded yield were both better than recent averages, which is even more impressive given the fact that the auction happened at the day's strongest levels after a significant rally (all things being equal, markets tend to favor slight weakness in the bonds that are about to be auctioned, with a slight recovery in the event of an average-or-better result).

    The easiest explanation is that today's market movement isn't too concerned with Treasury supply, and is instead driven by big, archetypal trades favoring safety vs risk.  This can create a good amount of momentum in multiple asset classes and today is no exception.  S&Ps are down 30 points.  Euros and Yen have rallied immensely, as have MBS and Treasuries.  The end of the week's Treasury supply burden isn't really a cause for celebration when bigger fish are already in the process of being fried.

    That said, here at the 15 minute mark, bonds are breaking into stronger territory.  It's tough to say whether this has anything to do with the auction.  It probably does not, but the auction being over certainly doesn't stand in the way of more tradeflow-based positivity.  There are also more QE headlines out from the ECB just now.

    MBS are at the day's best levels, up nearly half a point at 104-25 and 10yr yields are down 6.5bps to 2.62. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14

    The moderate positive reprice potential mentioned in the last update is now full-fledged as bond markets embarked on an exponentially stronger run.  Both MBS and Treasuries moved well into their best levels of the day as S&P futures shed a fairly abrupt 15 points since the open.

    Any lenders who have not yet repriced stand a good chance of doing so.  Even the late-pricing crowd is looking at better than 6 ticks of improvement since initial rate sheet.  Several lenders are already out with reprices.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14

    While bond markets coped with a bit of weakness immediately following the stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims data, the supportive undertones we noted in the morning update ended up marking the extent of that weakness (i.e. 10yr yields did indeed treat the 2.68's as an overhead support level).

    10's were at their weakest levels for the last time right as stocks opened and have gradually improved since then.  MBS have been improving since 9am and are currently up 6 ticks on the day, with some lenders seeing as much as a 5 tick gain from initial rate sheet print times.  That means positive reprices are technically possible for a few of the early lenders, but would become more probable with a few more ticks of improvement, or more time spent holding current levels.

    The extent to which bond markets are willing to rally strongly ahead of an afternoon Treasury auction is questionable, but that would leave a post-auction relief rally as a possibility. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 4/10/14

    Treasuries made quite a strong move overnight, making it all the way into the 2.65's in 10yr yields.  While some of those gains were already being given up into the domestic session, it looked as if bond markets would have been willing to go either direction after the 8:30am data.

    With Jobless Claims coming in stronger (300k vs 320k forecast) and continued claims dropping below 2.8m, the first reaction is a moderate move toward weaker levels for Treasuries and MBS.  10yr yields are up to 2.675 from 2.665 just before the data (2.6501 overnight).  MBS are only 2 ticks off their highs (104-13 vs 104-15 in Fannie 4.0s).

    Despite the move higher, we're already seeing signs that it might stay contained.  Not only was the initial pop on the small side, but it's clearly meeting some resistance now.  If this morning's high yields continue to hold, that would be a very positive sign from a technical standpoint (making the 2.68 level discussed in the 'day ahead' act as a pivot point instead of a resistance level).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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