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You are viewing Micro News from Monday, Mar 31, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/31/14
    MBS at Best Levels; Positive Reprice Potential

    After battling back from morning volatility, bond markets have continued into the best levels of the day.  While Treasury yields have flat-lined with 10's in the mid 2.72's, Fannie 3.5s and 4.0s are at the best levels of the day. 

    Although Fannie 4.0s are still down 2 ticks compared to Friday's latest levels, they're up more than an eighth of a point from morning rate sheet print times.  Positive reprices are a moderate possibility while this continues to be the case.  Several have already been reported.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/31/14
    Range-Bound Overall, but Back Toward Best Levels Now

    The combination of Chicago PMI, Yellen headlines, and Ukraine-related comments from Putin and others made for a good amount of volatility in the past 2 hours.  While bond markets aren't currently stampeding through their previous best levels, they've at least made it back--or close to it.

    Fannie 4.0s are up to 103-28, only 4 ticks off on the day.  If any reprice risk had been building heading into the 10am lows, it's on hold for now. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14
    Only minutes after catching what looked like a break...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14
    Limited Support From Weaker Chicago PMI Data; More Support From Yellen

    MBS and Treasuries continued to struggle heading into the 9:45am Chicago PMI data.  Even after it printed weaker than expected, bonds didn't get much, if any traction.  Stocks didn't come off their highs by more than 2 S&P points either.  The only hope was that markets would be waiting to hear from Yellen a few minutes later.

    Indeed they were.

    In a nutshell, Yellen's bond-market-positive comments include:

    RTRS - FED'S YELLEN: EXTRAORDINARY COMMITMENT TO STIMULUS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME, A VIEW WIDELY SHARED BY FELLOW POLICYMAKERS

    RTRS- YELLEN: ECONOMY STILL 'CONSIDERABLY SHORT' OF FED'S GOALS; WILL TAKE TIME TO REACH

    RTRS- YELLEN POINTS TO PART-TIME WORKERS AS EVIDENCE LABOR CONDITIONS WORSE THAN SUGGESTED IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

    RTRS- YELLEN: RECOVERY STILL FEELS LIKE A RECESSION TO MANY AMERICANS

    While a few of these points consistently make the rounds among the justified economic bears, it's good to see them acknowledged by the new Fed Chair.  The ensuing positivity for bond markets hasn't been triumphant, but it brought 10yr yields well off their highs and MBS well off their lows.  Both have bounced already and given up about half the post-Yellen gains, and we now wait to see which spike is the head-fake.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14
    Bond Markets Weaker Overnight; No Reprieve Into Domestic Session

    Treasuries began the overnight session just slightly weaker than Friday's latest levels.  10yr yields moved up 2 bps into European trading hours which characteristically see a glut of increased participation.  There's little to conclude here other than 'Europe woke up and sold bonds,' as there's no overt market-moving data to line up with the movement. 

    As far as data that doesn't line up temporally, we had stronger-than-expected Retail Sales in Germany and headlines from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry noting a decrease in Russian troops on the Ukrainian border.

    As the domestic session gets warmed up for the day, bond markets continue coping with moderate weakness.   10yr yields are already up 4bps on the day and MBS are outperforming--down only 5 ticks in Fannie 4.0s so far.

    The day's only significant economic data comes in the form of Chicago PMI at 9:45am (though it can cause volatility at 9:42am as certain market participants receive the numbers 3 minutes early).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 3/31/14

    After battling back from morning volatility, bond markets have continued into the best levels of the day.  While Treasury yields have flat-lined with 10's in the mid 2.72's, Fannie 3.5s and 4.0s are at the best levels of the day. 

    Although Fannie 4.0s are still down 2 ticks compared to Friday's latest levels, they're up more than an eighth of a point from morning rate sheet print times.  Positive reprices are a moderate possibility while this continues to be the case.  Several have already been reported.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14

    The combination of Chicago PMI, Yellen headlines, and Ukraine-related comments from Putin and others made for a good amount of volatility in the past 2 hours.  While bond markets aren't currently stampeding through their previous best levels, they've at least made it back--or close to it.

    Fannie 4.0s are up to 103-28, only 4 ticks off on the day.  If any reprice risk had been building heading into the 10am lows, it's on hold for now. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14
    Only minutes after catching what looked like a break...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14

    MBS and Treasuries continued to struggle heading into the 9:45am Chicago PMI data.  Even after it printed weaker than expected, bonds didn't get much, if any traction.  Stocks didn't come off their highs by more than 2 S&P points either.  The only hope was that markets would be waiting to hear from Yellen a few minutes later.

    Indeed they were.

    In a nutshell, Yellen's bond-market-positive comments include:

    RTRS - FED'S YELLEN: EXTRAORDINARY COMMITMENT TO STIMULUS WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOME TIME, A VIEW WIDELY SHARED BY FELLOW POLICYMAKERS

    RTRS- YELLEN: ECONOMY STILL 'CONSIDERABLY SHORT' OF FED'S GOALS; WILL TAKE TIME TO REACH

    RTRS- YELLEN POINTS TO PART-TIME WORKERS AS EVIDENCE LABOR CONDITIONS WORSE THAN SUGGESTED IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

    RTRS- YELLEN: RECOVERY STILL FEELS LIKE A RECESSION TO MANY AMERICANS

    While a few of these points consistently make the rounds among the justified economic bears, it's good to see them acknowledged by the new Fed Chair.  The ensuing positivity for bond markets hasn't been triumphant, but it brought 10yr yields well off their highs and MBS well off their lows.  Both have bounced already and given up about half the post-Yellen gains, and we now wait to see which spike is the head-fake.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/31/14

    Treasuries began the overnight session just slightly weaker than Friday's latest levels.  10yr yields moved up 2 bps into European trading hours which characteristically see a glut of increased participation.  There's little to conclude here other than 'Europe woke up and sold bonds,' as there's no overt market-moving data to line up with the movement. 

    As far as data that doesn't line up temporally, we had stronger-than-expected Retail Sales in Germany and headlines from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry noting a decrease in Russian troops on the Ukrainian border.

    As the domestic session gets warmed up for the day, bond markets continue coping with moderate weakness.   10yr yields are already up 4bps on the day and MBS are outperforming--down only 5 ticks in Fannie 4.0s so far.

    The day's only significant economic data comes in the form of Chicago PMI at 9:45am (though it can cause volatility at 9:42am as certain market participants receive the numbers 3 minutes early).

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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