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You are viewing Micro News from Friday, Mar 28, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/28/14
    Off the Lows, But No Stampede Back Toward Stronger Levels

    The morning volatility looks to have calmed down for the most part--incidentally right as the morning ended.  PM hours have been kinder, seeing MBS move back up 2-3 ticks and diminishing negative reprice risk for some lenders. 

    That said, we haven't moved back up enough to expect much positive reprice potential either.  Keeping an eye on equities isn't a bad idea at the moment, as S&Ps just put in two solid bounces at their session lows.  These coincide with the last two bounces in Treasury yields and further stock-market strength raises a bit of a roadblock for further Treasury/MBS correction.

    However!  If stocks happen to start sliding into the close, bond markets might take another stab at pushing back toward unchanged levels into the end of the day.  That's probably a bit optimistic at this point, with the highest probability scenario being a classic "inconsequential Friday fizzle" heading slightly higher or lower, but mostly sideways from here.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/28/14
    This is to add emphasis to the last negative reprice...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
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    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 3/28/14
    The resilient bounce back against the morning selling...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
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    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 3/28/14
    Holding Ground Without Further Losses For Now

    Just wanted to give you a quick update as the selling pressure that precipitated the last alert hasn't been able to pick up any more steam since then.  Lenders who may have been preparing for a reprice may now be inclined to hold off as long as these levels hold.

    In terms of Fannie 4.0s, that's right at 104-03, and prices are currently 104-04, so don't tune out just yet, but keep fingers crossed that we stay above 104-03.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/28/14
    Despite Consumer Sentiment data coming in slightly...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 3/28/14
    MBS Holding Near Unchanged Despite Slightly Weaker Treasuries Overnight

    Domestic bond markets were inconsequentially weaker in the overnight session.  US Treasuries notably held off on following a modest rally in core European bond markets, which could be an indication that we've reached the limits of our organic month/quarter-end demand.  It can still come from other places if that's the case, but would have to be motivated by something like an exceptionally weak reading on Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

    The 8:30am data--Incomes and Outlays--didn't cut it as a market mover.  It never usually does, but today's release was particularly close to consensus.

    Incomes and Outlays

    • Personal Income +0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
    • Spending +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
    • Core PCE Price Index +0.1 vs +0.1 forecast

    This hasn't resulted in any market movement, but MBS had just climbed into unchanged territory ahead of the release.  Since then, they've barely budged but are 2 ticks up on the day at 104-07.

    Meanwhile, 10yr yields are weaker to the tune of 1.6bps.  There's no apparent motivation for MBS outperformance other than their underperformance yesterday. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/28/14

    The morning volatility looks to have calmed down for the most part--incidentally right as the morning ended.  PM hours have been kinder, seeing MBS move back up 2-3 ticks and diminishing negative reprice risk for some lenders. 

    That said, we haven't moved back up enough to expect much positive reprice potential either.  Keeping an eye on equities isn't a bad idea at the moment, as S&Ps just put in two solid bounces at their session lows.  These coincide with the last two bounces in Treasury yields and further stock-market strength raises a bit of a roadblock for further Treasury/MBS correction.

    However!  If stocks happen to start sliding into the close, bond markets might take another stab at pushing back toward unchanged levels into the end of the day.  That's probably a bit optimistic at this point, with the highest probability scenario being a classic "inconsequential Friday fizzle" heading slightly higher or lower, but mostly sideways from here.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/28/14
    This is to add emphasis to the last negative reprice...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/28/14
    The resilient bounce back against the morning selling...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/28/14

    Just wanted to give you a quick update as the selling pressure that precipitated the last alert hasn't been able to pick up any more steam since then.  Lenders who may have been preparing for a reprice may now be inclined to hold off as long as these levels hold.

    In terms of Fannie 4.0s, that's right at 104-03, and prices are currently 104-04, so don't tune out just yet, but keep fingers crossed that we stay above 104-03.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/28/14
    Despite Consumer Sentiment data coming in slightly...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/28/14

    Domestic bond markets were inconsequentially weaker in the overnight session.  US Treasuries notably held off on following a modest rally in core European bond markets, which could be an indication that we've reached the limits of our organic month/quarter-end demand.  It can still come from other places if that's the case, but would have to be motivated by something like an exceptionally weak reading on Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

    The 8:30am data--Incomes and Outlays--didn't cut it as a market mover.  It never usually does, but today's release was particularly close to consensus.

    Incomes and Outlays

    • Personal Income +0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
    • Spending +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
    • Core PCE Price Index +0.1 vs +0.1 forecast

    This hasn't resulted in any market movement, but MBS had just climbed into unchanged territory ahead of the release.  Since then, they've barely budged but are 2 ticks up on the day at 104-07.

    Meanwhile, 10yr yields are weaker to the tune of 1.6bps.  There's no apparent motivation for MBS outperformance other than their underperformance yesterday. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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