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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Mar 20, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/20/14
    Drifting Through Afternoon Near Best Levels; Uneventful!

    It would be hard for today to be any calmer, especially compared to yesterday.  Any negative reprice risk that had been looming earlier began evaporating shortly after it appeared.  Prices have since moved closer to the highs of the day and were only higher in the first 20 illiquid minutes of the session.

    Some of the current resilience is predicated on outperformance on the part of MBS.  In other words, 10yr yields are nearer to their weakest levels of the afternoon.  That can occasionally suggest a more tenuous rally heading into the last hour of the day, but in their defense, MBS aren't pushing and boundaries in terms of aggressive outperformance.  They don't look offsides by any means at current levels.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/20/14
    Full disclosure: there may be no negative reprices...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/20/14
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker After 10am Data

    Good news first: we're continuing to see a good amount of resilience in the face of stronger-than-expected economic data.  Most recently, the Philly Fed Survey at 10am came in at 9.0 vs a 3.8 forecast.  Despite the beat, bond markets haven't moved into much weaker territory. 

    Weak internals in the data are likely helping in that regard along with another weak reading in Existing Home Sales out at the same time. 

    MBS shed 2 ticks after the data and bounced back 1 tick since then.  10yr yields moved up to 2.79+ and have eased back down to 2.784.

    The reaction leaves the implied momentum somewhat up in the air for the rest of the day.  The tone has been more sideways than anything so far, but current levels are closer to giving negative cues than positive.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/20/14
    Bond Markets Fighting to Hold Ground After Claims Data

    Bond markets improved during Asian market hours and moved back in the other direction during European hours to hit the domestic session mostly unchanged.  Prices began slipping right off the bat and coped with a modest amount of additional weakness after stronger-than-expected claims data.

    Initial Jobless Claims

    • 320k vs 325k forecast, 315k previously
    • 4-wk average down to 327k from 330.5k
    • Continued Claims 2.889 mln cs 2.868 mln forecast, 2.855mln previously
    • Thoughts: while higher than last time, 320k claims is a solid print, and the second time in a row under the important 323k level.  Apart from the late 2013 volatility that markets largely disregarded, 323k was about as low as we got until last week.  Keep in mind that today's claims are for last week, and that's the week the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in it's Establishment Survey to generate the NFP number.

    2014-3-20 Claims

    Despite some additional weakness after the data, the downside drive looks limited for now.  That can obviously change as the morning progresses, but so far Fannie 4.0s haven't been more than an eighth of a point weaker and are currently down only 3/32nds at 103-18.  10yr yields are up just over a bp at 2.784. 

    The next round of data is coming up at 10am with Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/20/14

    It would be hard for today to be any calmer, especially compared to yesterday.  Any negative reprice risk that had been looming earlier began evaporating shortly after it appeared.  Prices have since moved closer to the highs of the day and were only higher in the first 20 illiquid minutes of the session.

    Some of the current resilience is predicated on outperformance on the part of MBS.  In other words, 10yr yields are nearer to their weakest levels of the afternoon.  That can occasionally suggest a more tenuous rally heading into the last hour of the day, but in their defense, MBS aren't pushing and boundaries in terms of aggressive outperformance.  They don't look offsides by any means at current levels.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/20/14
    Full disclosure: there may be no negative reprices...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/20/14

    Good news first: we're continuing to see a good amount of resilience in the face of stronger-than-expected economic data.  Most recently, the Philly Fed Survey at 10am came in at 9.0 vs a 3.8 forecast.  Despite the beat, bond markets haven't moved into much weaker territory. 

    Weak internals in the data are likely helping in that regard along with another weak reading in Existing Home Sales out at the same time. 

    MBS shed 2 ticks after the data and bounced back 1 tick since then.  10yr yields moved up to 2.79+ and have eased back down to 2.784.

    The reaction leaves the implied momentum somewhat up in the air for the rest of the day.  The tone has been more sideways than anything so far, but current levels are closer to giving negative cues than positive.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/20/14

    Bond markets improved during Asian market hours and moved back in the other direction during European hours to hit the domestic session mostly unchanged.  Prices began slipping right off the bat and coped with a modest amount of additional weakness after stronger-than-expected claims data.

    Initial Jobless Claims

    • 320k vs 325k forecast, 315k previously
    • 4-wk average down to 327k from 330.5k
    • Continued Claims 2.889 mln cs 2.868 mln forecast, 2.855mln previously
    • Thoughts: while higher than last time, 320k claims is a solid print, and the second time in a row under the important 323k level.  Apart from the late 2013 volatility that markets largely disregarded, 323k was about as low as we got until last week.  Keep in mind that today's claims are for last week, and that's the week the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in it's Establishment Survey to generate the NFP number.

    2014-3-20 Claims

    Despite some additional weakness after the data, the downside drive looks limited for now.  That can obviously change as the morning progresses, but so far Fannie 4.0s haven't been more than an eighth of a point weaker and are currently down only 3/32nds at 103-18.  10yr yields are up just over a bp at 2.784. 

    The next round of data is coming up at 10am with Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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