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You are viewing Micro News from Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/17/14
    The technical break mentioned in the last alert has...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
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    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 3/17/14
    In terms of the difference in prices between rate sheet...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
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    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 3/17/14
    Moving Back Toward Lows After Industrial Production Data; Stronger Stock Open

    Bond markets lost a few ticks after the stronger read on Industrial Production out at 9:15am.  Equities markets are moving higher after the cash open at 9:30am, which at the very least isn't helping bonds recover.  Here's the run-down on the data:

    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

    • Industrial Output +0.6 pct vs +0.1 forecast, -0.2 previously
    • Excluding Auto sector, Industrial Output +0.4 vs +0.1 previously
    • Capacity Utilization 78.8 vs 78.6 forecast
    • Manufacturing +0.8 vs +0.2 forecast, -0.9 previously
    • Full Release

    10yr yields are very close to their domestic session highs (2.676 vs 2.683) and Fannie 4.0s are 1 tick off their lows (104-10 vs 104-09).  If there's a silver lining, it's that the we haven't broken beyond those weak points and have shown some resilience compared to a sharper move in equities.  Of course, this could always change, but it looks good for now.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/17/14
    Bond Markets Weaker Overnight, but Recovering Into Domestic Session

    Global markets continued moving back toward 'risk' overnight as the Crimean referendum has merely resulted in economic sanctions so far.  Part of the preemptive bond market strength last week had accounted for potential military escalation on the part of the US and EU.  The longer we go without such escalation, the consequences will look increasingly limited to 'sanctions'--notably less problematic than military escalation.

    Spiking equities and bond yields into the European session reflect this reality.  10yr yields moved as high as 2.6831 overnight, but have eased back to 2.67 so far this morning.  MBS also recovered after starting in weaker territory with Fannie 4.0s down only 2 ticks on the day at 104-12.  That said, we're seeing early signs of technical resistance at the morning's best levels.  This could turn out to be a minor speed bump or a barrier that lasts all day.  It's too soon to know just yet.

    The fact that bond markets are only in moderately weaker territory reflects some disbelief of the anticlimactic geopolitical developments.  Such disbelief is justifiable at present, but longer we go without consequences more severe than economic sanctions, the more pressure for bond markets. 

    A complete absence of Ukraine-related flight-to-safety flows would probably have 10yr yields in the 2.72-2.76 neighborhood.  So at 2.67, bonds still haven't let their guard down and moved on.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/17/14
    The technical break mentioned in the last alert has...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/17/14
    In terms of the difference in prices between rate sheet...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/17/14

    Bond markets lost a few ticks after the stronger read on Industrial Production out at 9:15am.  Equities markets are moving higher after the cash open at 9:30am, which at the very least isn't helping bonds recover.  Here's the run-down on the data:

    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

    • Industrial Output +0.6 pct vs +0.1 forecast, -0.2 previously
    • Excluding Auto sector, Industrial Output +0.4 vs +0.1 previously
    • Capacity Utilization 78.8 vs 78.6 forecast
    • Manufacturing +0.8 vs +0.2 forecast, -0.9 previously
    • Full Release

    10yr yields are very close to their domestic session highs (2.676 vs 2.683) and Fannie 4.0s are 1 tick off their lows (104-10 vs 104-09).  If there's a silver lining, it's that the we haven't broken beyond those weak points and have shown some resilience compared to a sharper move in equities.  Of course, this could always change, but it looks good for now.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/17/14

    Global markets continued moving back toward 'risk' overnight as the Crimean referendum has merely resulted in economic sanctions so far.  Part of the preemptive bond market strength last week had accounted for potential military escalation on the part of the US and EU.  The longer we go without such escalation, the consequences will look increasingly limited to 'sanctions'--notably less problematic than military escalation.

    Spiking equities and bond yields into the European session reflect this reality.  10yr yields moved as high as 2.6831 overnight, but have eased back to 2.67 so far this morning.  MBS also recovered after starting in weaker territory with Fannie 4.0s down only 2 ticks on the day at 104-12.  That said, we're seeing early signs of technical resistance at the morning's best levels.  This could turn out to be a minor speed bump or a barrier that lasts all day.  It's too soon to know just yet.

    The fact that bond markets are only in moderately weaker territory reflects some disbelief of the anticlimactic geopolitical developments.  Such disbelief is justifiable at present, but longer we go without consequences more severe than economic sanctions, the more pressure for bond markets. 

    A complete absence of Ukraine-related flight-to-safety flows would probably have 10yr yields in the 2.72-2.76 neighborhood.  So at 2.67, bonds still haven't let their guard down and moved on.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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