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You are viewing Micro News from Friday, Feb 28, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 2/28/14
    Ongoing Positive Reprice Potential Thanks to Month-End Boost

    Volume is light, but positive for MBS as month-end buying overwhelms the relatively non-existent new origination supply.  Treasuries have been trending lower in yield in the same linear fashion after putting in their weakest levels this morning. 

    We've seen a few positive reprices so far, and prices have improved another 1-2 ticks since then.  Fannie 4.0s are now only 3/32nds lower on the day and 5/32nds higher than 10am.  Stay tuned for some potential volatility (could be positive or negative) into and after 3pm Eastern.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 2/28/14
    Some Resilience For Bond Markets After Data Effects Wear Off

    Promising developments in bond markets, or evidence of steady month-end support...  Either way, MBS and Treasuries dug their heels in shortly after 10am despite an ongoing advance in equities markets.  Fannie 4.0s are 3/32nds off their lows and 10yr yields are roughly 1.5bps below their highs.

    This probably isn't enough for positive reprices, but may be enough to mitigate some negative reprice risk.  Positive effects from month-end buying can carry into the afternoon on occasion, but if that happens, it usually runs most of its course by 3pm ET.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 2/28/14
    Consumer Sentiment came out just slightly stronger...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 2/28/14
    As expected, Chicago PMI beat the consensus forecast...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 2/28/14
    Chicago PMI subscribers receive the data 3 minutes...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 2/28/14
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker After GDP

    Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory after stronger data in Europe.  Treasury yields rose in concert with core European debt, but began drifting back toward positive territory into the domestic open. 

    MBS and Treasuries crossed the 8am mark at moderately weaker levels and lost more ground after GDP came in close to consensus.  Perhaps market participants were prepared for December's weather to have more of an impact, but that's a stretch. 

    Considering the relationship between Europe and US debt overnight as well as the last 5 days of solid gains, it looks more like Treasuries/MBS were "leading off" a bit, and prepared to rally further on the chance of an exceptionally weak result.  While this result it weak compared to the 1st reading, it's close to consensus (.1% away).

    US Q4 Preliminary (2nd reading) GDP

    • GDP +2.4 vs +2.5 Forecast, previous reading was +3.2
    • Consumer Spending +2.6 vs +3.3 forecast
    • Business Inventory change adds 0.14 percent, was +.42 pct previously
    • GDP Deflator +1.6 vs +1.3 forecast

    On a positive note, Treasury yields have now bounced twice at the exact same ceiling level of 2.6744 in 10's.  It remains to be seen whether that ceiling is sturdy enough to endure, but the 2nd bounce speaks to some willingness to at least consider it.  Upcoming Chicago PMI data may be the next deciding factor, if not the 9:30am cash 'open' in stocks.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 2/28/14

    Volume is light, but positive for MBS as month-end buying overwhelms the relatively non-existent new origination supply.  Treasuries have been trending lower in yield in the same linear fashion after putting in their weakest levels this morning. 

    We've seen a few positive reprices so far, and prices have improved another 1-2 ticks since then.  Fannie 4.0s are now only 3/32nds lower on the day and 5/32nds higher than 10am.  Stay tuned for some potential volatility (could be positive or negative) into and after 3pm Eastern.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/28/14

    Promising developments in bond markets, or evidence of steady month-end support...  Either way, MBS and Treasuries dug their heels in shortly after 10am despite an ongoing advance in equities markets.  Fannie 4.0s are 3/32nds off their lows and 10yr yields are roughly 1.5bps below their highs.

    This probably isn't enough for positive reprices, but may be enough to mitigate some negative reprice risk.  Positive effects from month-end buying can carry into the afternoon on occasion, but if that happens, it usually runs most of its course by 3pm ET.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/28/14
    Consumer Sentiment came out just slightly stronger...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/28/14
    As expected, Chicago PMI beat the consensus forecast...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/28/14
    Chicago PMI subscribers receive the data 3 minutes...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/28/14

    Bond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory after stronger data in Europe.  Treasury yields rose in concert with core European debt, but began drifting back toward positive territory into the domestic open. 

    MBS and Treasuries crossed the 8am mark at moderately weaker levels and lost more ground after GDP came in close to consensus.  Perhaps market participants were prepared for December's weather to have more of an impact, but that's a stretch. 

    Considering the relationship between Europe and US debt overnight as well as the last 5 days of solid gains, it looks more like Treasuries/MBS were "leading off" a bit, and prepared to rally further on the chance of an exceptionally weak result.  While this result it weak compared to the 1st reading, it's close to consensus (.1% away).

    US Q4 Preliminary (2nd reading) GDP

    • GDP +2.4 vs +2.5 Forecast, previous reading was +3.2
    • Consumer Spending +2.6 vs +3.3 forecast
    • Business Inventory change adds 0.14 percent, was +.42 pct previously
    • GDP Deflator +1.6 vs +1.3 forecast

    On a positive note, Treasury yields have now bounced twice at the exact same ceiling level of 2.6744 in 10's.  It remains to be seen whether that ceiling is sturdy enough to endure, but the 2nd bounce speaks to some willingness to at least consider it.  Upcoming Chicago PMI data may be the next deciding factor, if not the 9:30am cash 'open' in stocks.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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