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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Feb 27, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 2/27/14
    Europe and Month-End Keep Bond Markets Propped up

    Despite losing ground after the 8:30am economic data, both MBS and Treasuries managed to dig their heels in before sliding into yesterday's territory, making for a nice pivot-point bounce back to the best levels of the day. 

    There haven't been any sensational headlines or data releases since then.  Instead, the boost is coming from a moderate, but noticeable positive bias in month-end tradeflows as well as an even stronger rally in late-day European bond markets.

    MBS are up 4 ticks in Fannie 4.0s to 104-27 and 10yr yields are down .353 to 2.6387.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 2/27/14
    Bond Markets Pull Back After Stronger Durable Goods Data

    The overnight session was reasonably kind to Bond markets as Treasuries were flat during Asian hours and followed core European debt nicely into stronger territory.  The net effect was an overnight low of 2.6352 just minutes before the start of the domestic session.

    Since then, 10yr yields are already up to 2.658 and Fannie 4.0 MBS are 4 ticks off their highs after stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data.  The inherent risk in all the recent "weather-blaming" is that moderately stronger data stands out, because according to the weather theorists, it shouldn't be happening.

    As such, the strength in Durable Goods is currently trumping the weakness in the Jobless Claims data out at the same time.  Here are break downs of both:

    Jobless Claims

    • 348k vs 335k forecast
    • 4-week average unchanged at 338,250
    • Continued Claims 2.964 mln vs 2.985 mln forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 3.5/ 10 
    • While markets are moving away from this data's suggestion, it's probably keeping them from doing so at a more pronounced pace.

    Durable Goods

    • Durable Goods for January -1.0 vs -1.5 forecast
    • December revised to -5.3 vs -4.2 forecast
    • Excluding transportation +1.1 vs -0.3 forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 6.5/10
    • We're increasingly seeing data that makes December look worse and January look like a bounce back.  That may actually be a longer term positive for bond markets (because some of January's strength could be to make up for repressed activity in December).  But for today, a 'beat' on an upper 2nd tier market-mover is--well... moving markets.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 2/27/14

    Despite losing ground after the 8:30am economic data, both MBS and Treasuries managed to dig their heels in before sliding into yesterday's territory, making for a nice pivot-point bounce back to the best levels of the day. 

    There haven't been any sensational headlines or data releases since then.  Instead, the boost is coming from a moderate, but noticeable positive bias in month-end tradeflows as well as an even stronger rally in late-day European bond markets.

    MBS are up 4 ticks in Fannie 4.0s to 104-27 and 10yr yields are down .353 to 2.6387.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/27/14

    The overnight session was reasonably kind to Bond markets as Treasuries were flat during Asian hours and followed core European debt nicely into stronger territory.  The net effect was an overnight low of 2.6352 just minutes before the start of the domestic session.

    Since then, 10yr yields are already up to 2.658 and Fannie 4.0 MBS are 4 ticks off their highs after stronger-than-expected Durable Goods data.  The inherent risk in all the recent "weather-blaming" is that moderately stronger data stands out, because according to the weather theorists, it shouldn't be happening.

    As such, the strength in Durable Goods is currently trumping the weakness in the Jobless Claims data out at the same time.  Here are break downs of both:

    Jobless Claims

    • 348k vs 335k forecast
    • 4-week average unchanged at 338,250
    • Continued Claims 2.964 mln vs 2.985 mln forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 3.5/ 10 
    • While markets are moving away from this data's suggestion, it's probably keeping them from doing so at a more pronounced pace.

    Durable Goods

    • Durable Goods for January -1.0 vs -1.5 forecast
    • December revised to -5.3 vs -4.2 forecast
    • Excluding transportation +1.1 vs -0.3 forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 6.5/10
    • We're increasingly seeing data that makes December look worse and January look like a bounce back.  That may actually be a longer term positive for bond markets (because some of January's strength could be to make up for repressed activity in December).  But for today, a 'beat' on an upper 2nd tier market-mover is--well... moving markets.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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