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You are viewing Micro News from Friday, Feb 14, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 2/14/14
    Fannie 4.0s are down 6 ticks currently to 104-06, though...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 2/14/14
    Industrial Production Much Weaker; Weather Cited; Bonds Rally Anyway

    As much air-time as bad weather gets recently, you'd think markets would act less surprised when it distorts data.  But bonds and stocks are both reacting to weaker-than-expected Industrial Production numbers, despite widespread mention of weather-related challenges in the report (and one weather-related benefit). 

    Here are the details from the report as well as the sections mentioning weather:

    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

    • Industrial Production -0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
    • First decline since July, biggest decline since May 2009
    • Capacity Use Rate 78.5 vs 79.3
    • Manufacturing output -0.8 vs +0.1 forecast
    • "Severe weather in January contributed to a decrease of 0.8 percent for manufacturing production"
    • "For example, numerous motor vehicle assembly facilities lost one or more days of production during the month."
    • nondurable manufacturing sector companies reported "weather-related plant closures contributed to some of these decreases."
    • "Mining output moved down 0.9 percent in January, as extremely cold weather led to slowdowns at some oil and gas extraction facilities."
    • On the other side of the coin: " Output at electric and natural gas utilities surged 4.1 percent on strong heating demand because of the extremely cold weather"
    • Full Release

    Treasuries made it back to unchanged levels after the data but have bounced/leveled-off for now.  MBS did the same, but their bounce has left Fannie 4.0s down 3 ticks at 104-09.  The last data this morning will be Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/14/14
    Bond Markets Unchanged Overnight, Weaker After CME Open, Data

    Treasuries were almost perfectly flat overnight, moving lower in yield during Asian hours and rising slightly during European hours.  MBS opened unchanged as well.  Both tread water until 8:20am.

    That's the time of day that CME pit trading opens, and can have a noticeable affect all on it's own.  It wasn't big today, but it marked the first departure from unchanged levels. 

    The Import/Export price data at 8:30am is ostensibly the culprit for the next move higher, but it's important to note that this would be the first time in a long time that it's had an effect and also that the selling didn't really commence until 8:37am.

    It's almost always the case that markets will move right with the release of the data when the data is in fact the motivator.  This synchronicity is lacking in this morning's activity, leaving some doubt as to the causality.  Nonetheless, higher-than-expected inflation is in line with the direction of the movement, so an argument can be made either way.

    Import/Export Prices

    • Import Prices +0.1 vs -0.1 forecast
    • December revised higher to +0.2 from 0.0 previously
    • Export Prices +0.2 vs 0.0 forecast
    • Petroleum prices -1.2
    • Full Release
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 2/14/14
    Fannie 4.0s are down 6 ticks currently to 104-06, though...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/14/14

    As much air-time as bad weather gets recently, you'd think markets would act less surprised when it distorts data.  But bonds and stocks are both reacting to weaker-than-expected Industrial Production numbers, despite widespread mention of weather-related challenges in the report (and one weather-related benefit). 

    Here are the details from the report as well as the sections mentioning weather:

    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

    • Industrial Production -0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
    • First decline since July, biggest decline since May 2009
    • Capacity Use Rate 78.5 vs 79.3
    • Manufacturing output -0.8 vs +0.1 forecast
    • "Severe weather in January contributed to a decrease of 0.8 percent for manufacturing production"
    • "For example, numerous motor vehicle assembly facilities lost one or more days of production during the month."
    • nondurable manufacturing sector companies reported "weather-related plant closures contributed to some of these decreases."
    • "Mining output moved down 0.9 percent in January, as extremely cold weather led to slowdowns at some oil and gas extraction facilities."
    • On the other side of the coin: " Output at electric and natural gas utilities surged 4.1 percent on strong heating demand because of the extremely cold weather"
    • Full Release

    Treasuries made it back to unchanged levels after the data but have bounced/leveled-off for now.  MBS did the same, but their bounce has left Fannie 4.0s down 3 ticks at 104-09.  The last data this morning will be Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/14/14

    Treasuries were almost perfectly flat overnight, moving lower in yield during Asian hours and rising slightly during European hours.  MBS opened unchanged as well.  Both tread water until 8:20am.

    That's the time of day that CME pit trading opens, and can have a noticeable affect all on it's own.  It wasn't big today, but it marked the first departure from unchanged levels. 

    The Import/Export price data at 8:30am is ostensibly the culprit for the next move higher, but it's important to note that this would be the first time in a long time that it's had an effect and also that the selling didn't really commence until 8:37am.

    It's almost always the case that markets will move right with the release of the data when the data is in fact the motivator.  This synchronicity is lacking in this morning's activity, leaving some doubt as to the causality.  Nonetheless, higher-than-expected inflation is in line with the direction of the movement, so an argument can be made either way.

    Import/Export Prices

    • Import Prices +0.1 vs -0.1 forecast
    • December revised higher to +0.2 from 0.0 previously
    • Export Prices +0.2 vs 0.0 forecast
    • Petroleum prices -1.2
    • Full Release
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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